Analyzing All 28 Points Of The Leaked Russian-Ukrainian Peace Deal Framework, by Andrew Korybko

This one appears more realistic—in that it moves toward the Russian position—than prior administration efforts. From Andrew Korybko at korybko.substack.com:

The overarching theme connecting the substance and timing of this agreement is therefore the US’ eagerness to resolve the Russian-US dimension of the New Cold War in order to prioritize the Sino-US dimension thereof as the next phase of its systemic competition with China over the future world order.

The New York Post, which Trump once called his “favorite newspaper”, just published what it claims to be all 28 points of Russian-Ukrainian peace deal framework that Russia and the US have reportedly been working on in secret over the past few weeks. What follows is the text of each individual point as detailed in the infographic shared in their article on this subject, which will then be concisely analyzed, with some observations about the substance of the agreement and its timing rounding out the analysis:

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1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.

This relates to Russia respecting Ukraine’s right to manage its affairs, both internal and foreign and each in accordance with the terms specified in this agreement. It’s pretty much symbolic and aimed at spinning the outcome of this conflict as a (faux) victory for Ukraine amidst the narrative that was pushed by it and the West that Russia wants to conquer all of the country. Some state-adjacent “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” (NRPR) also inadvertently lent credence to this through their sensationalist commentary.

2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.

This relates to reforming the European security architecture and could thus likely be a protracted process due to the issues involved. Some of them include Russia’s access to Kaliningrad, navigation across the Baltic Sea, and its opposition to nukes in Poland, while Poland, whose lost Great Power status is being revived with US support, wants Russian tactical nukes and Oreshniks out of Belarus. The “EU Defense Line” that’s being built between NATO and Russia-Belarus will likely also become a “new Iron Curtain”.

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