Tag Archives: Covid-19 hospitalizations

The COVID-19 Pandemic Is Rolling Over: The Number Of US Hospitalizations Is Declining By 1 Percent Per Day, by Tyler Durden

Posted on August 20, 2020 | Leave a comment

There’s good news on Covid-19, but when are they going to lift restrictions? In my home state of New Mexico, our feckless Democrat governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, announced a series of benchmarks that would have to be met before she’d lift her draconian edicts. Surprise, surprise, the benchmarks have been met but she hasn’t lifted a single decree. Of course if she did, who would pay any attention to her or her press conferences? She’s just a second-rate governor of second-rate state. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Back on July 14 when a wave of new covid cases was sweeping the sunbelt states prompting many to speculate if a new round of shutdowns was imminent, we took the other side of the argument and said that the pandemic peak had hit, and that in Arizona – an early recent outbreak state, “the worst was over for the COVID breakout.” We were right, and as Bank of America writes today, Arizona has seen a 66% decline since its peak on July 14th, while the US excl. the four major recent outbreak states (AZ, CA, FL, TX) experiencing a 13% decline since the peak on July 30th.

There’s more: as BofA also points out, “we continue to see clear signs the Coronavirus is rolling over in the US as the number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19 declines at a rapid pace of about one percent a day (26% in 23 days).”

Extrapolating, this rate of decline means that there will be zero covid-related hospitalizations around the Nov 3 election day, a feat that if marketed properly, could mean the differnce for Trump between victory and defeat.

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Posted in Governments, Medicine, Politics, Science

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What Spike? Hospitalization Data Show No Indication of a Second Wave, by Stephen C. Miller

Posted on June 19, 2020 | 2 comments

Covid-19 hospitalizations are picking up in a few areas but overall they are not. From Stephen C. Miller at aier.org:

nurses, hospital

Are we on the verge of a second wave of coronavirus infections? Is there a spike in infections in states that reopened first?

The only way to answer that question is to watch as the data roll in. Arguably the best data to look at to see if a second wave is beginning are the hospitalization numbers. The media frequently reports the biggest and most dramatic numbers, often devoid of context. The number of cases has been reported regularly since the early days of the pandemic, and yet we know that the number of cases can be misleading.

As more people are tested and re-tested for the virus, more results will come back positive, with the current number of confirmed cases exceeding 2 million in the U.S. But if we know anything, it is that increases in the number of confirmed cases do not accurately convey how quickly and widely the virus is spreading. Antibody tests and even the examination of sewage in some cities suggest that the number of infections is likely much higher than the number of confirmed cases.

But on the other side, some of the confirmed cases are double-counted in some states partly because both antibody and active virus tests are being counted separately but then combined in the total number of cases. While the antibody tests have been criticized for their false positive rate, another criticism has been that the antibody studies can underreport infection rates because they are not sensitive enough to detect a past mild infection.

Overall, because the bulk of testing is focused on people who are the sickest and who face the greatest exposure, it seems reasonable to conclude that the true number of U.S. infections is substantially higher than the reported figure. But an attempt to estimate the true number of infections would be little better than a guess.

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Posted in Medicine, Science

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