Tag Archives: Yuan

China’s Plan to Subvert the Global Dollar Standard, by Alasdair Macleod

The US realizes almost incalculable benefits by having the world’s reserve currency. It’s gain is other countries’ loss. China may be trying to upend the existing order. From Alasdair Macleod at mises.org:

If nothing else, the Chinese have a sense of history and destiny. They have had a glorious past, stretching back millennia, and once controlled most of the Asian heartland in the days of Genghis and Kublai Khan. But even then, China was essentially inward-looking, protecting her own cultural values. Trade with Europeans in the centuries following Marco Polo’s visit was mostly at the behest of European travelers, not the Chinese. She exported her art and culture to visitors, and did not import European values.

This was a mistake, implicitly recognized by China’s current leadership. This time, China has embraced Western thinking and technology to further her own progress. The development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in recent years is the platform for China in partnership with Russia to embrace the Asian continent through peaceful trade, improving the lives of all the citizens of the many nations who are and will become members. The SCO promises a revolution in the wealth and living standards of over 40% of the world’s population, and associated benefits for its supplier-nations on the other continents.

China’s approach is fundamentally different from that of America, which under President Trump appears to be envious of the success of non-Americans producing goods and services for the American consumer. Autarkic America has a GDP of $19 trillion. Eventually, China will have free trade agreements with the rest of the world, excluding for now the EU. On a purchasing power parity basis, this is a market with a GDP of about $70 trillion, out of a world total of about $125 trillion.

Already, China dominates world trade. Her own economy is already significantly larger than that of the US on the purchasing power parity (PPP) estimates. While being the largest consumer of raw materials, China also exports more finished goods by value than any other country. As the Asian powerhouse, she has lifted the economies of all the countries on the western side of the Pacific Ocean, which including her own between them have a GDP of $50 trillion. Her exports into Asia now exceed her exports to the US. Yet despite this dominance, most of China’s trade is conducted in US dollars, something China is bound to change, if she is to contain external economic risk and replace America as the dominant global empire. Both objectives can only be achieved by China replacing the dollar as a medium of exchange.

To continue reading: China’s Plan to Subvert the Global Dollar Standard

Exorbitant privilege: “The dollar is our currency but your problem,” by Dan Popescu

Somebody, in a better world, gold will be the basis of the US monetary system. From Dan Popescu at GoldBroker.com, all rights reserved:

There is no better way to describe the international monetary system today than through the statement made in 1971 by U.S. Treasury Secretary, John Connally. He said to his counterparts during a Rome G-10 meeting in November 1971, shortly after the Nixon administration ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold and shifted the international monetary system into a global floating exchange rate regime that, “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.” This remains the U.S. policy towards the international community even today. On several occasions both the past and present chairpersons of the Fed, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, have indicated it still is the U.S. policy as it concerns the dollar.

Is China saying to the world, but more particularly to the U.S., “The yuan is our currency but your problem”? China’s move to weaken the Yuan against the US dollar is in fact a huge response to America’s resistance to reforming the international monetary framework. It’s telling American policy makers that the longer they delay acting on reforming the international monetary system, the harder and longer they are going to make it for the U.S. to climb out of their trade deficit and depreciate their currency to where they need it to be.

China has been preparing for this moment for several years by accumulating gold through its central bank but also by using banks/corporations and individuals. It has in recent years signed several international agreements to bypass the US dollar in international trade and use preferably the Yuan. It has created an alternative World Bank (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and a gold fund to invest in gold mining for more than 60 countries. The project is being overseen by the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and it is likely that the newly mined gold will be either traded on the SGE or be sold directly to the PBoC and other central banks. It has also bought a large amount of gold and kept the exact amount as secret as possible.

The international monetary system is in crisis and ready to collapse. It has been since at least 1971 but it seems we are very close to the end (within five years). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is working discreetly to have the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) replace the US dollar as the international standard. Since the delinking of the dollar from gold in 1971, the US dollar has been the de facto international standard. The IMF itself makes no bones about its ambition to establish the SDR as the global reserve currency.

In a 2009 essay, Governor Xiaochuan of the People’s Bank of China (the Chinese central bank) also called for a new worldwide reserve currency system. He explained that the interests of the U.S. and those of other countries should be “aligned”, which is not the case in the current dollar system. Xiaochuan suggested developing SDRs into a “super-sovereign reserve currency disconnected from individual nations and able to remain stable in the long run”. What does he mean by “disconnected from individual nations”? The present SDR is a mathematical formula of the price of its composing currencies of “individual countries” with no backing whatsoever. Does he imply some kind of link to gold? That would explain many other statements in favor of gold by China’s officials and their aggressive encouragement of Chinese institutions and individuals to buy gold.

Julian D. W. Phillips, of Gold Forecaster, says, “What has become clear in the actions of the Chinese government and the central bank is that they are determined to accelerate the Yuan’s passage to a reserve currency, hopefully with the cooperation of the IMF, but if not, they will walk their own road.” However, this is not the final objective of China. Its target is to eliminate the “exorbitant privilege” of the dollar, not just to join the “club”. China doesn’t want to destroy the dollar, only to eliminate its “exorbitant privilege”.

To continue reading: Exorbitant privilege