Tag Archives: Dollar

Peter Schiff and Tucker Carlson: The Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Pandemic

Much of the official coronavirus response, particularly lockdowns and closing businesses, has done irreparable harm to an already ailing economy and will help usher in a gargantuan economic crisis. From Peter Schiff and Tucker Carlson at schiffgold.com:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April came in much hotter than expected. Year-on-year, inflation is up 4.2%. The big number even prompted Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida to say, “We were surprised by higher than expected inflation data.”

Peter Schiff appeared on Tucker Carlson’s show to talk about the consequences of more printed money chasing fewer goods. Peter said inflation is going to hit the middle class harder than the pandemic.

Peter said this hot CPI print is a cause for concern and ultimately it is a tax.

It is the inflation tax. And if you look at how much the cost of living went up, measured by the CPI in the first four months of this year, it’s 2%. So, if you triple that to annualized it, we have consumer prices rising at 6% annually. But if you look at the monthly numbers, every month it accelerates. So, if you extrapolate the trend of the first four months of this year for the entire year, you’re going to get a 20% increase in consumer prices in 2021.”

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A Rising Dollar Sinks All Boats, by Tom Luongo

When somebody borrows dollars, they’re essentially short the dollar (they would like to pay back with dollars that are worth less in other currencies). Given the huge amount of dollar-denominated debt out there, the world is short dollars, which is a problem if it’s value against other currencies goes up. From Tom Luongo at tomluongo.me:

Every day I open up my web browser to see yet another example of the basic functions of society breaking down.  Last week it was the vaporization of Archegos capital. I told you what I thought of this in a post that I hope, got people thinking.

Previous to Archegos, over the past two months we’ve seen the electrical grid collapse in Texas, hedge funds blown up over a meme stock.  Bitcoin is screaming that the national fiat currencies are all hyperinflating at the same time.

In the case of the recently solved Suez Canal incident, it doesn’t matter if it was incompetence or malicious behavior which caused the Ever Given to stick in the mud, in a world this fragile the smallest mistake can have outsized consequences.

The few days the canal was blocked caused an enormous pile up and re-routing of basic supplies and fundamentally important goods to Europe and North America that, to me, is a harbinger of where we are headed.

An overly complex world is an inherently fragile one.  Global trade is dependent on a handful of chokepoints remaining clear, like the Suez or the Straits of Malacca.  Jam up one of them and watch our everyday life we take for granted collapse.

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Here Comes the Bretton Woods Choo-Choo, by Jeff Thomas

Since Nixon freed the US dollar from any link to gold, US monetary policy has become a derailed train. From Jeff Thomas at internationalman.com:

Bretton Woods

Since the announcement of Klaus Schwab’s Great Reset, many people have become increasing aware of and/or increasingly concerned over the prospect of a New World Order.

Although it’s been in the works for over a century, in recent decades, preparations for the actual implementation have become increasingly apparent, and now that the rollout has begun, the reality of its tyrannical intent is coming home more than ever before.

Interestingly, most all people who comment on the coming of a New World Order seem to treat it as a foregone conclusion. Not only that, they tend to assume that it’s certain to live up to its title: a dominant oligarchy that will blanket the globe.

But is that dark prediction a certainty? Let’s back up a bit here and look at this from above the treeline of all the hoopla and see it as it really is.

First, where did the concept come from? Certainly, sociopaths have always existed, and they tend to wish to be omnipotent. And we know from history that there are no lengths that they will not go to, to achieve their power.

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Willful Blindness, Societal Rift & Death of the Dollar, by Michael Lebowitz

History is replete with governments who borrowed themselves to ruin, but not one that borrowed its way to prosperity. From Michael Lebowitz at realinvestmentadvice.com:

“It was assumed, even only a decade ago, that the Fed could not just print money with abandon. It was assumed that the government could not rack up huge debt without spurring inflation and crippling debt payment costs. Both of these concerns have been thrown out the window by large numbers of thinkers. We’ve seen years of high debt and loose monetary policy, but inflation has not come.

So the restraints have been cast aside.”

– David Brooks- New York Times-  Joe Biden Is A Transformational President

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with David’s politics, he makes an incredibly bold statement above. In no uncertain terms, he argues, massive amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus can be employed with no consequences, no restraints.

We fear this naïve mindset is not just David Brook’s, but a rapidly growing school of thought among economists, politicians, and central bankers.  We all want unicorn-like solutions to what ails us, but the truth, grounded in history, is there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Since David shrugs off any consequences of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy, we bring them to the forefront.

Who Is Funding Stimulus?

Someone must pay for rampant Federal spending.

Ask your spouse, neighbor, or friend who that might be, and they are likely to tell you the taxpayer is on the hook. To some degree, they are correct but increasingly less so.

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Taking Aim at the U.S. Dollar, the World Builds a Multipolar Trade-and-Payments Order, by Bill Campbell

The world is slowly but surely moving away from US and dollar dominance From Bill Campbell at DoubleLine Capital via zerohedge.com:

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. In the case of international trade and global payments, the U.S. made aggressive use of sanctions and tariffs. With some merit, Washington has argued that these actions level the playing field for global trade or punish bad global actors. But a series of equal and opposite reactions are occurring as nations move to remove the role of the U.S. dollar at the center of global trade and finance.

This will have a long-lasting structural impact in ending the dominance of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Over the past years, the U.S. set out to address inequities in the global trade environment by imposing tariffs and sanctions on various countries from China to Mexico and Canada with the rewriting of the North American Free Trade Agreement into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Even the countries in the European Union were affected. In addition, Washington implemented sanctions against Russia in 2014 in response to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, and more recently against Iran and Venezuela, effectively using the dollar’s role at the center of global trade and finance to force compliance of other nations. These actions impacted nations beyond those directly targeted by the U.S. action, and today many governments around the world are taking countervailing steps to remove their reliance on the dollar-based global trade and finance system that has reigned since 1944.

In November, 15 Asian countries, comprising 30% of global GDP, signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), creating a free-trade zone among the signatories. This agreement attempts to provide gains to trading within the regional partnership through reduction of trade and investment barriers, and increased incentives for economic integration. It is noteworthy that RCEP came about without participation of either the U.S. or Europe, and has effectively created the world’s largest trading bloc, according to the Rand Corp. Beyond the obvious benefits for economic growth in the region, a more-subtle byproduct of this agreement is to focus on bilateral settlement of trade, effectively removing the dollar as the standard unit of transaction for regional trade, according to economist and geopolitical analyst Peter Koenig, a veteran of more than 30 years with the World Bank. Liu Xiaochun, deputy dean of the Shanghai New Finance Research Institute, recently furthered this idea, stating, “Under RCEP, currency choices for regional settlement in trade, investment and financing will increase significantly for the yuan, yen, Singapore dollar and Hong Kong dollar.” Liu’s comments were posted to the China Finance 40 Forum, a think tank comprising senior Chinese regulatory officials and financial experts.

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The next dollar problem has just arrived, by Alasdair Macleod

You can tell something is dramatically wrong just by looking at Alasdair Macleod’s charts. From Macleod at goldmoney.com:

Abstract

It is not for no reason that cryptos are roaring, and precious metals are playing catch-up. In the last month there have been developments that point to a new phase of accelerating monetary inflation for the dollar, and fiat money is only just beginning to be exchanged for these inflation hedges at an increasing pace.

Hyper-inflation of the dollar is now becoming obvious to a growing cohort of investors. It is driven by factors on both sides of bank balance sheets, with evidence that large depositors are reducing their term deposits and increasing their instant access checking accounts. This appears to be behind the increase in M1 money supply fuelled out of a shift from the M2 statistic, which includes savings deposits.

It amounts to a hidden run against bank balance sheets. Meanwhile, increasing supply chain problems against a background of covid lockdowns are leading to the withdrawal of bank credit from non-financial businesses, potentially imploding bank balance sheets as a bank credit contracts.

Foreign support for both the dollar and dollar-denominated fixed interest assets are being withdrawn, which is sure to lead to rising bond yields and dollar interest rates in the New Year, undermining the equity market bubble.

The Fed is now faced with not only financing ballooning federal budget deficits, but underwriting US supply chains in their entirety, which is corroborated by ongoing global logistical problems, tying up an annualised $34 trillion of intra-business payments in America alone. The Fed’s unwavering commitment to Keynesian monetary policies will lead the Fed to attempt to offset these supply chain problems, to rescue banks that fail to survive the inevitable contraction in bank credit, and to defray the bad debts that will arise.

It is a momentous task encompassing the whole US economy, requiring even faster money-printing, and is impossible without destroying the unbacked dollar.

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Digital Money Is Coming to America, by Bill Bonner

Inflationary regimes have often swapped the old, depreciated-to-next-to-nothing currency for a brand new, nominally revalued and reset currency that soon sinks to next to nothing. Right now the world’s inflationary regimes are scheming to replace currencies, especially that hard to track paper money, with digital, easy to monitor, currencies. From Bill Bonner at rogueeconomics.com:

Week 28 of the Quarantine

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – For half a century, America’s greatest export has been the dollar. So much so that there are now more physical dollars outside the U.S. than in it.

Overseas, people use dollars as an alternative to their own money. Foreigners are more familiar with Ben Franklin than Americans. In many places, people cling to U.S. dollars like a drowning man to driftwood.

Here in Argentina, for example, inflation is already running at about 50% per year. People think it will get a lot worse. So they prepare by trading their pesos for dollars – now at a rate of 150-to-1.

Sinking Dollar

But what happens when the dollar sinks?

The question is premature. Almost naïve.

For the present, the dollar is as buoyant as an empty plastic bottle. The velocity of money – a key component of consumer price inflation – is actually going down.

Americans are happy to get dollars from the government. And foreigners are happy to get them any way they can.

But soon, everyone will see that the U.S. feds are acting like the people who run sh*thole countries. They stifle the economy with laws and regulations – shutdowns, moratoria on evictions, $1,200 checks for everyone – and try to finance it with printing-press money.

We have no superpowers here at the Diary. We cannot climb walls, fly through the air, or see through concrete walls. So we cannot tell you when or how the dollar fails.

But today, we will explore the question of what you should do about it.

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On the Verge of an Incredibly Chaotic Period That’s Nothing Short of Revolutionary, by Chris MacIntosh

Chaos is coming (actually, it’s already arrived). From Chris MacIntosh at internationalman.com:

Doug Casey’s Note: There aren’t too many newsletters that I can recommend wholeheartedly. Chris MacIntosh’s is one of the few. It covers the entire investment waterfront, it’s thoughtful and well-written.

Let me add I’m completely on the same page with Chris and his views. I urge you to read what he has to say.


International Man: First, I’d like to introduce Chris MacIntosh.

After working for many top-tier investment banks, Chris left the corporate world. He has since built and sold multiple million-dollar businesses, built a VC firm allocating $35m into early-stage ventures, and become a full-time trader.

He now manages money for clients of Glenorchy Capital; a macro focused hedge fund. Chris is the founder of Capitalist Exploits, with its flagship investment subscription letter called Insider.

Alright, let’s get into our discussion.

Chris, the government’s response to Covid-19 has unleashed an unprecedented amount of economic destruction around the world.

In the US alone, tens of millions of people are now unemployed. The government-ordered shutdowns have decimated many businesses. The Fed has printed more money out of thin air in just the last couple of months than it has for its entire 107-year existence.

From your perspective, what’s going on here, and what trends do you see taking shape?

Chris MacIntosh: There is quite a bit to unpack on that.

If we go back to before the global lockdowns began in February, Western governments were in debt to an extent where it would have been impossible to repay. That’s just a fact that can be proven with mathematical certainty.

So, we went into this crisis—and this is not a crisis, as it is currently being portrayed as an existential threat. For anybody who looks at the data, you can understand that this is largely a big “nothing burger” for what the virus itself is.

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The Empire Will Strike Back: Dollar Supremacy Is the Fed’s Imperial Mandate, by Charles Hugh Smith

At this point the dollar is a buy and bonds and precious metals are a sell. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

Triffin’s Paradox demands painful trade-offs to issue a reserve currency, and it demands the issuing central bank serve two competing audiences and markets.

Judging by the headlines and pundit chatter, the U.S. dollar is about to slide directly to zero. This sense of certitude is interesting, given that no empire prospered by devaluing its currency. Rather, devaluing the currency is a sure path to dissolution and collapse of the empire. This dynamic–devaluation leads to decline and collapse–is not exactly a secret.

So what all those proclaiming the death of the USD are saying is the Imperial Project is consciously choosing suicide, all to boost the U.S. stock market which is now little more than a signaling mechanism and a means of accelerating wealth inequality, as the billionaire class and the billionaire wannabe’s in the top .01% are the primary winners as stocks reach new highs.

(Recall that the U.S. economy is best described as anything goes and winners take most.)

Taking it one step further, those predicting the collapse of the U.S. dollar are predicting that not only will the Empire choose suicide, so will the billionaires because what will their fortunes be worth if the USD goes to zero?

The USD-is-dead crowd (and it is a crowd) present the demise as ordained by some mysterious force, as if the Empire has no will or power to resist the inevitable slide to zero. The helpless giant can only watch as the Federal Reserve debauches the dollar to boost stocks and float the mountains of debt required to keep the U.S. economy from imploding.

The USD-is-dead crowd also seems to overlook the inconvenient fact that all the other issuers of fiat currency are busy debauching their currencies, too by the same mechanisms: the endless digital printing of new currency, distributed to already-insanely-wealthy financiers and corporations. (Debt-serfs can “save themselves” by borrowing more, heh.)

We get it: digitally printing trillions in excess of actual productivity eventually destroys the purchasing power of the over-issued currency. We also get the need to keep interest rates at near-zero so governments can fund endless trillions in stimulus and other giveaways–billions to the billionaires and a trickle of bread-and-circuses to the debt-serfs.

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The Big Lie: The EU is Fixed, The Dollar is Dying and COVID Will Kill You, by Tom Luongo

Anytime the mainstream media joins together in a Hallelujah chorus, they’re trying to pull one over on you. From Tom Luongo at tomluongo.me:

Dyin’ ain’t much of a livin’, boy
– The Outlaw Josey Wales

The Davos Crowd is desperate. That much has been clear to me for months.

From the moment they tied COVID-19 to the breaking of the oil markets back in March they have worked like no other time in history to convince us the world we knew was gone.

The latest iteration of this big lie is the all-out assault on the U.S. dollar. Now for months a few analysts like me have been steadfast in reminding everyone that no matter how much money the U.S. prints in the short run, it is only doing so because of the extreme levels of latent and active dollar demand in the world.

So, there is narrative and there is reality. And reality is that today there is huge demand for the U.S. dollar regardless of what the headlines tell you.

That said, that doesn’t mean that demand doesn’t ebb and flow. And now that we’re on the other side of the first wave of this crisis period, marginal dollar hoarding has slacked off.

This is most evident in the dramatic rise in the euro back above $1.17 and the British pound breaking back to challenge $1.30. But in the grand scheme of things these are just relief rallies within primary bear markets.

But in the past couple of weeks, coinciding nicely with a massive rally in the precious metals, there’s been a deluge of talk about the end of the dollar.

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