From Tyler Durden, at zerohedge.com:
As those who follow Syria’s nearly half decade-old civil war are probably aware, John Kerry, Sergei Lavrov, and their counterparts from other “interested” countries including of course Saudi Arabia recently began holding Friday meetings in Vienna in an attempt to work out a “political” solution to the conflict which has cost hundreds of thousands of lives and precipitated the worst migrant crisis in Europe’s history.
Thus far, the results of the talks have been predictably underwhelming with all sides agreeing to little more than to keep talking.
The main sticking point: the fate of Bashar al-Assad. Earlier this month, Washington and Riyadh begrudgingly allowed Tehran to have a seat at the table in the negotiations which of course makes sense considering the Iranians (along with various militias backed by Tehran) are doing most of the fighting on the ground and considering that when it comes to the political future of Syria, no country is more keen on preserving its interests than Iran.
Predictably, things didn’t go so well. Iran’s deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian accused Saudi Arabia of playing a “negative and unconstructive” role, while Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir accused the Iranians of being an “occupying force” in Syria. The spat culminated with Tehran telling Riyadh that is “none of Saudi Arabia’s business how Iran fights terrorism.”
A few weeks went by and Russia began to circulate a “draft” document that was a kind of “trial balloon” for a possible political solution to the conflict, but because it did not specifically call for Assad’s departure, it was promptly shot down by the Saudis and the Syrian National Coalition (which, as an aside, has fallen into virtual irrelevancy on the battlefield).
Well, in the wake of the Paris terror attacks (which themselves came on the heels of the Russian passenger jet disaster over the Sinai Peninsula and bombings in Beirut that killed 43), everyone involved apparently felt compelled to send some kind of message to the public regarding a collective desire to work towards a solution in Syria and so, the foreign ministers have now produced an amorphous “transition plan” for the country that calls for a meeting between Assad and “recognized” opposition groups followed by a cease fire within 6 months. Ultimately, there would be a new constitution and elections by the the end of 2017. Here’s Bloomberg with more:
Seventeen nations, spurred on by Friday’s deadly attacks in Paris, overcame their differences on how to end Syria’s civil war and adopted a timeline that will let opposition groups help draft a constitution and elect a new government by 2017.
As a first step, the United Nations agreed to convene Syria’s government with opposition representatives by Jan. 1, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Saturday at a joint press conference in Vienna. A cease-fire between the government in Damascus and recognized opposition groups should be in place within six months, according to their statement.
“It is time to deprive the terrorists of any single kilometer in which to hide,” Kerry said. “There can be no doubt that this crisis is not Syria’s alone to bear.”
Assad has “cut his own deal” with Islamic State, buying oil from the group and failing to attack militants, Kerry said. Assad’s allies have conveyed that he’s prepared to be serious and engage in talks, but the “proof will be in the pudding,” he said.
Diplomats meeting in the Austrian capital also decided to place Islamic State, along with the al-Qaeda affiliated Nusra Front terrorist group, on a list of those subject to military strikes even when a cease-fire is in place. The list, managed by the Kingdom of Jordan, may later be expanded to include other groups in Syria, Kerry and Lavrov said.
The Paris attacks “show that it doesn’t matter if you’re for Assad or against him,” said Lavrov, “ISIS is your enemy.”
Well, maybe. Unless of course you view ISIS as a valuable destabilizing element that helps not only to keep Assad off balance but also to undercut Iranian influence in Iraq, in which case ISIS wouldn’t be your enemy. “Strategic asset” gone rogue, maybe. “Frankenstein” turned on its creators, maybe. But not exactly your “enemy.”
