Choosing to procreate may be the ultimate expression of optimism. Take a look at what’s happening to birth rates. From Chris Hamilton at economica.com:
The ultimate indicator of personal economic confidence is the determination to perpetuate the species and have children. The chart below shows annual US births from 1910 through 2017 and it is estimatedthere were 3.84 million births in 2017, nearly a hundred thousand fewer than in 2016.
The 2017 figure is also nearly a half million fewer than the late 1950’s baby boom era peak and likewise below the subsequent mid 2000’s double peak. The 2017 figure is also nearly six hundred thousand below the Census estimates provided as recently as 2000 and 2008.
To offer some perspective, the chart below shows annual births versus total US population…despite the total population nearly doubling since 1957, the US had 11% fewer children in 2017 than 1957…or 2007.
More poignantly, below is the US childbearing population (those aged 15 to 45 years old)…the red columns represent the annual change while the blue line is the total 15 to 45 year old population. As can be plainly seen, the growth of the childbearing cohort represented by the “baby boom” on the left dwarfed the growth represented by “millennials”, on the right. Of course, on a relative basis (%), the millennials represent less than a third the annual quantity of growth than the boomers offered…and millennials high levels of education driven indebtedness and poor quality of employment, etc. mean the quality of growth they represent is even lower than their numbers would indicate.
A last note regarding millennials, their estimated “growth” was never organic (as births essentially never exceeded those during the “boomer” period) and instead was almost entirely dependent on estimates of continued high rates of immigration…the same immigration that has dramatically slowed since the early 2000’s. Chart below shows the sources of 15 to 64 year old population growth (declining births vs. immigration…annual average per 5 year periods) since 1970. Given this, there is a high probability that the size of the millennials significantly undershoots estimates.
To continue reading: Ultimate Indicator Shows US Never Recovered From The ’08 Great Financial Crisis
I prefer the length of beaver tail’s as an indicator of economic recovery. I’ll just bet this man is a masterful investor.