A number of indicators with good (albeit not perfect) records are pointing towards a recession next year. From Charles Gave at evergreengavekal.com:
“While the Trump administration may crow endlessly about how swell the economy performed last quarter, that 4.1% GDP print will quickly become a wistful memory.”
-BERNARD BAUMOHL, Economist at the Economic Outlook Group
Towards the tail-end of July, the Commerce Department reported that Gross Domestic Product (also known as GDP), or the total value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at an annual pace of 4.1% in this year’s second quarter. As expected, President Trump took a victory lap around these numbers, which were the highest GDP growth results since 2014. (However, lost in the fanfare was the fact that the first quarter GDP number was revised down from 2.9% to 2.3%.)
In an equally anticipated move, the President went on to predict that this is just the start of a long-term trend, and that these numbers are “very, very sustainable” and are “going to go a lot higher.” With all due respect to the Trumpeter-in-Chief, the Evergreen Gavekal team is not nearly as confident. In fact, we would argue that there is a glaring black hole in his economic outlook.
Particularly, we believe that three unstainable factors led to this
inflated higher-than-expected GDP number: tax cuts, a surge in government spending, and a rush to ship exports out of the country as the result of the trade war. We believe all three factors are based on high-risk policies that will eventually turn from a catalyst to a drag on the economy in the medium- to long-term—perhaps right around, if not before, President Trump seeks re-election in 2020.
This week’s Gavekal EVA comes from one of our most admired partners, Charles Gave. Charles also sees danger brewing on the economic horizon, both in the US and globally. In fact, he even goes so far as to postulate the exact year this brewing will turn into a full-fledge storm: 2019. In this week’s EVA, Charles explains his reasoning for making this bold, timestamped prediction. His forecast is based on several macro-economic factors that are already letting-on to a slowdown in the mostly elusive synchronized global expansion.
However, Evergreen itself is still holding off on issuing a call for the next recession, one we haven’t made since 2007. We admit, though, that the expansion clock is nearing midnight, which shouldn’t come as a surprise since this party has been going on for almost nine years. Keep dancing at your own risk!
To continue reading: The Recession of 2019