Why The Polls Are Wrong, by Briggs

If the polls screw up this election, it should convince everyone once and for all that they are just part of the massive mainstream propaganda effort. From Briggs at briggs.com:

This was originally written for a normie audience. See updates below.

Polls Predict Biden

On the evening of October 29th, The Economist updated their poll-based election forecast model. It gave a 96% chance for Biden to take the electoral college, and it said it was all but certain, greater than a 99% chance, he will win the popular vote.

These are incredible numbers. Yet not unusual.

For instance, on that same night, Nate Silver’s 538 site had a poll average of 52% for Biden and 43.2% for Trump (the other 4.8% going to other candidates and uncertainty). Every poll used in that average had Biden ahead. Two had Biden up 12 points over Trump.

Silver wrote that Trump’s chance of winning were “a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles,” which he cited as 1 in 10.

There are others beside these two firms, but almost all favor Biden by a large margin.

Silver rightly said, “At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he’s going to win.”

This is not impossible. Most polls in 2016 blew it. Including Silver’s. His last poll average gave 45.7% to Clinton and 41.8% to Trump (4.8% went to the forgotten Libertarian candidate). Silver’s poll-based model gave a 71.4% chance of Hillary winning.

Many modelers were bolder than this—and their record was dismal. There have been several lachrymose postmortems since then searching for the cause of error. There are even fresh efforts at analyzing the 2016 polls, given their eerie similarity to today’s. All these analyses say what The Atlantic says: “Don’t sweat the polls.”

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