Keep looking at snapshots and you’ll never see where this pandemic is headed . . . until it reaches its final destination, by Geert Vanden Bossche

The Covid vaccines are making the pandemic worse, not better. From Geert Vanden Bossche at geertvandenbossche.org:

The debate and tension over the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccines is flaring up. Comparative assessments of vaccine-mediated protection from infection, disease, hospitalization, and death in vaccinated and unvaccinated people are all over the place, with results ranging from convincing evidence of benefit to compelling proof of failure depending on the source of information. Those who’ve become addicted to these comparative statistics seem to forget that gauging the success of human intervention in a pandemic is about measuring success in a dynamic phenomenon, and that snapshots taken under certain conditions/settings do not provide information about the overall evolutionary trend and likely health outcome of a pandemic. The latter can only be monitored by measuring temporal changes of parameters that are relevant to public and individual health.

By March 2021, molecular epidemiologists had already expressed their concern about the emergence of a super-variant that ‘might have any combinations of increased transmissibility, altered virulence and/or increased capacity to escape population immunity’ and would, therefore, enjoy a huge fitness advantage (1). Back then, their concern was based on phylogenetics-based natural selection analysis indicating that immunity-mediated selective pressure is driving convergent evolution of a diversified spectrum of mutations to ensure viral persistence in the face of mounting infectious and vaccine-induced host immune pressure.

Their findings lead one to conclude that mass vaccination in the presence of more infectious variants inevitably involves selection-driven convergence of compensatory adaptive mutations at positively selected genome sites, and hence promotes enhanced expansion in prevalence of more transmissible immune escape variants. This would imply that vaccine efficacy is expected to diminish over time while the infection rate would progressively increase. It is reasonable to assume that the evolutionary convergence of more infectious immune escape variants and the culmination thereof into a ‘super-variant’ will also cause distinct trajectories of the pandemic to increasingly converge in countries/regions that are subject to mass vaccination.

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