swedish birthrate data: september update, by el gato malo

As if sperm counts didn’t have enough problem, the vaccines may exacerbate the trend. From elgatomalo at boriquagato.substack.com:

extreme low fertility persists and mRNA vaccines look more and more like the culprit

back in july i started tracking some worrying trends in swedish birth rates. this trend seems to be appearing all over the west/OECD but as i said then, sweden seemed a particularly good test subject because:

  1. they provide good data

  2. it goes back 25 years

  3. they did not engage in much lockdown so that is not a confounding factor to the extent it is in most of the rest of the west

  4. they had a high vaxx rate

there has been quite a lot of speculation about whether the covid vaccines are causing fertility issues and i have been, for some months, assessing two competing theories on the unprecedented drops in birth rate.

i summarized them in an update piece here and will use them verbatim (italic) because i think it’s important to make forward looking, testable hypotheses and then see how you do instead to trying to backfit ideas to data post facto.

this is the real test of a theory.

2 leading theories seem to have emerged:

  1. this is the result of covid vaccine induced sterility/reduced fertility/sperm counts (as has been biologically documented in a number of places)

  2. this is the result of a “summer shift” where the birth rates in 2021 deriving from a sort of “blackout baby” trend due to less travel and more staying home due to 2020 covid fears, lockdowns, and travel restrictions gave way to a “summer of re-opening” and everyone went on vacation instead of trying to get pregnant.

both fit pretty well temporally.

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