Will Ukraine end up partitioned? From Lyle J. Goldstein at responsiblestatecraft.org:
Just like 70 years ago on the peninsula, an armistice would immediately freeze fighting along the present line of contact.
The bloodletting in Ukraine continues with no end in sight. The risks of continued casualties, now numbering likely in the hundreds of thousands, along with the attendant escalation spiral, must be firmly rejected by responsible leaders.
Embracing a “Korean Scenario” may provide the best prospect for both the Ukrainian people and a return to global stability. It would allow both sides to stop fighting with an immediate armistice along the present line of contact, while putting aside most of the complexities of peacemaking.
In autumn, the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) illustrated that they are capable of large-scale offensive action. However, the Russian Army has not buckled as some had predicted, but has rather returned to the offensive, creeping forward along nearly the whole front.
It remains to be seen whether the Russian capture of towns surrounding Bakhmut, like Soledar and Klishchiivka, indicates the main effort of Russia’s winter offensive.
The use of mostly Wagner Group troops in these battles around Bakhmut may imply that these are merely holding actions, meant to keep the AFU engaged, while larger Russian offensive actions are to be taken on the flanks. Of course, there have been more than a few hints that another Russian offensive could come through Belarus. Another possible vector of Russian attack could be from the south along the Dnepr river and toward Zaporizhzhia.
Yet, it is entirely possible that the Kremlin, humbled by a year of military setbacks, has opted for the more conservative and realistic near-term goal of gradually and methodically securing only the Donbas. To be sure, a major humiliation for the Russian Army has been its inability to dislodge Ukrainian forces from their positions near the main city of Donetsk.
