This and the companion piece below are two of the best analyses you’ll find on the contentious issue of Covid vaccine safety and efficacy. From Eugene Kusmiak at substack.com:
The Covid vaccines are said to be “safe and effective”. The second of these claims – that they’re effective – is obviously ridiculous as I have shown elsewhere. In this essay, I will consider the first claim – are the Covid vaccines safe? This is a more difficult question. The evidence on vaccine safety is not nearly as clear, at least to me, as that on vaccine efficacy. But I believe the answer is: no, they are not safe. This paper describes several reasons to believe the vaccines are, in fact, quite harmful.
This report is divided into five sections. The first is my own research. The second describes VAERS. The rest contain medical studies. The sections are:
In all cases, I’ve tried to stick to statistically-valid measures of vaccine outcomes. The only exception is section 2, since the VAERS data is essentially anecdotal not statistical.
1. Excess Mortality
People who believe the Covid vaccines are deadly sometimes point to the current increase in deaths worldwide from all causes, which they claim is the result of the vaccines. Their proof is that the heavily-vaccinated countries now have higher all-cause mortality than the lightly-vaccinated countries. Where there are more vaccines, there are more deaths. So, even if the vaccines are effective at reducing Covid deaths, they may be increasing non-Covid deaths more. To see how this could be possible, imagine that the vaccines work as advertised and reduce Covid mortality by 50%. The Omicron fatality rate is at most 0.2% and in a bad pandemic year 30% of the population might catch the disease, so in the US with a population of 350M a successful vaccine would reduce the number of Covid deaths by 0.5 * 0.002 * 0.3 * 350M = 105,000 people / year. But if the all-cause mortality rate, which is about 1% in the US (1% of the population dies from all natural causes in a normal year), rises by 10% to 1.1% – as in fact it has – then the number of extra deaths would be 0.1 * 0.01 * 350M = 350,000 people / year. Not a good trade-off. But are the vaccines to blame for the large increase in deaths worldwide from causes other than Covid? In this section, I will try to answer 3 questions: 1) are there more all-cause deaths in 2022 after the vaccination campaign of 2021, 2) are the heavily-vaxxed countries suffering more deaths than the lightly-vaxxed countries, and 3) is the relationship in #2 so strong that it can be considered statistically significant? (Spoiler: yes, yes, and yes.)