Well over a year after Russia invaded Ukraine and Western policymakers and bureaucrats still don’t have a clue what the Russian strategy is. From Pepe Escobar at strategic-culture.org:
Remember Putin: “We haven’t even started anything yet.”
“Whispers of an ‘evil power’ were heard in lines at dairy shops, in streetcars, stores, apartments, kitchens, suburban and long-distance trains, at stations large and small, in dachas, and on beaches. Needless to say, truly mature and cultured people did not tell these stories about an evil power’s visit to the capital. In fact they even made fun of them and tried to talk sense into those who told them.”
Mikhail Bulgakov, The Master and Margarita
To quote Dylan, who might have been a Bulgakov epigone: “So let us stop talking falsely now/the hour’s getting late.” By now it’s quite clear the delusion of a “peace” deal in Ukraine is the latest wet dream of the “non-agreement capable” usual suspects, always hooked on lies and plunder while deftly manipulating selected liberals among the Russian elite.
The goal would be to appease Moscow with a few concessions, while crucially keeping Odessa, Nikolaev and Dnipro, and safeguarding what would be NATO’s access to the Black Sea.
All that while investing in rabid, resentful Poland to become an armed to the teeth EU military militia.
So any “negotiations” towards “peace” in fact mask a drive to postpone – just for a little while – the original masterplan: dismembering and destroying Russia.
There are very serious discussions in Moscow, even at the highest levels, on how the elite is really positioned. Rougly three groups can be identified: the Victory party; the “Peace” party – which Victory would describe as surrenders; and the Neutral/Undecided.
RF is operating with one arm tied behind the back because they don’t want a hostile population underground resistance after a scorched earth campaign.
Denazify is the purpose of the SMO and some Nazis are a little more equal than others when they work for the evil rainbow empire of lies.
The people getting killed in the Donbas for no reason wanted this done years ago but Russia had to build up the economy and war material production while bringing new weapons systems online.
Russia doesn’t do shock and awe Blitzkrieg unless that is what it takes and Putin has a PHD in international law, that is why he methodically dots every I and crosses every T.
If NATO wanted to enter the fray formally, the question of navigating the Dardanelles would enter the discussion, as countries through which a strait passes have the right to deny passage only to belligerents if they are in a war. Unstable Tutkey would be in an unenviable position.
The question of a “second front” has also been studiously avoided. Russia has positioned Belorus for their part, but if NATO wants to destroy Russia, what’s the plan?
I have already stated here and elsewhere, there are NO circumstances under which Russia will give up Crimea and with it Sevastopol.
Error-Putin has minor in international law and Phd in economics for mining from St. Petersburg.
Sorry for the mix up.
The thesis made Forbes and some “fact checkers” say it is fake and plagiarized but that claim wasn’t made until recently.