Ukraine’s Long-Expected Offensive: Why It Won’t Beat Putin, by Daniel Davis

Hard-headed, objective military analysis yields the conclusion that the Ukrainian offensive will accomplish little, and will certainly not take back the lands Russia has annexed. From Daniel Davis at

M1 Abrams

The Biden administration appeared poised to approve sending the M1 Abrams to Ukraine.

Ukraine has a complex reality it must face: U.S., UK, and EU senior leaders have voiced over the past few days strong support for Ukraine and their widely reported upcoming offensive. Reading some of the off-headline comments they’ve made, however, exposes the growing realization in the West that the hope of Zelensky accomplishing his stated objectives of driving Russia entirely out of Ukraine has a low probability of success.

A change in Western policy, therefore, is urgently needed – before Kyiv suffers more combat losses that are unlikely to alter the fact that the war will most likely end with a negotiated settlement.

Recent Developments in Ukraine War

In just the past few days, a bevy of senior Western political leaders have made strong declarations of support for Ukraine and the embattled country’s looming offensive. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleaverly, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have all issued strongly worded statements of support for Ukraine. The question, however, is whether the West can make good on its claims.

There is growing evidence that for the remainder of 2023, the West in general and the U.S. in particular likely do not have sufficient on-hand stocks of key weapons and ammunition to match what has been provided to Ukraine over the first 14 months of the war. On Tuesday, the United States announced yet another tranche of military support to Ukraine, this time in the form of a $1.2 billion package

What is key about this promised support is that it was not given under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, but the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. The difference in the two programs is significant and has ominous implications for Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) operations through the rest of this year, especially following the outcome – win, lose, or draw – of the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

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One response to “Ukraine’s Long-Expected Offensive: Why It Won’t Beat Putin, by Daniel Davis

  1. Fresh Fruit For Rotting Vegetables

    Bolshevik enemedia showed some Uke squad advancing under fire and made claims of glorious victories.
    You could almost see the director off screen yelling cut.
    I might visit the bicycle shop tomorrow and pick up a good horn!
    Russia prepared for WAR while some went full rainbow utopia.
    Meanwhile the Unrestricted Warfare sign hangs at the Darrien Gap in Panama where the CCP dropped Trojan Horse sets off for the free milk and honey.
    Check and mate, game already over.


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