As always, China will pursue its own interests in the Iran-U.S.-Israel war, and that means it can be expected to stay out of it. From Hua Bin at unz.com:
Many Chinese strategists, way smarter and better informed than myself, are working on the issue as we speak. I have implicit trust they will reach the right course of action to protect China’s national interests in the ongoing crisis.
My own modest aim in the essay is to offer a dispassionate and nuanced analysis of the situation from a personal point of view.
I’ll focus on dispensing some popular myths about the implications of the war on China and the China Iran relationship. Once the myths are dispelled, I think reader can anticipate and interpret China’s moves far more easily in the coming weeks and months.
Myth 1: China hasn’t helped
Reality: China denounced Israel’s aggression and called for immediate cessation of hostilities in various forums: UN Security Council, BRICS, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), and China Central Asia Summit. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi called both Iranian and Israeli foreign ministers to ask for de-escalation. President Xi talked with President Putin today and both condemned Israel and called for ceasefire.
Iran hasn’t publicly asked for help from China and Russia. However, I believe both President Xi and President Putin are ready to mediate if requested by Iran.
Myth 2: If Iran is defeated, it would be the end of the multipolar world that China is advocating together with Russia
Reality: Israel is unlikely to defeat Iran on its own. It could do serious damages (and Iran is retaliating) but won’t prevail in either destruction of Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure or regime change.
If the US steps in, it can certainly drop bigger bombs and potentially destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities more completely. But the nuclear facilities can be rebuilt and Iran may finally decide to go for the bomb.
The US is also unlikely able to regime change Iran without boots on the ground and physically occupying the country, the largest one it would have ever attempted (90 million population, 1.6 million square kilometers).
The war will be airborne, fought with fighter, bomber, missile and drone.
Unless the Iranian people are so upset and intimated by the war as to decide to overthrow the government, the Iranian regime will stay in power. In fact, the war could be a catalyst for much needed national unity in a divided society. Then this could actually be the silver lining that comes out of the terrible war.
If the Iranians were to overthrow the government and embrace their enemies, then Iran is not worth saving for China or Russia. Neither can social engineer a deformed society that wants to leap into the arms of those who just bombed it into submission.
They have a new train line for supplies is that going to get bombed as well?
Don’t give them any ideas.
The land of Sun Tzu should pull a Napoleon and sit back as Under Satan’s Authority worships the star of Remphan.