Tag Archives: Business sales

This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy, by Wolf Richter

From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

There is no escape.

The Census Bureau announced today that total business sales in January did what they’d been doing relentlessly for the past one-and-a-half years: they fell! This time by 1.1% from a year ago, to $1.296 trillion, and by 5% from their peak in July 2014.

They’re now back where they’d been in January 2013. Sales are adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. And since January 2013, the consumer price index rose 2.8%! This is why the US economy has looked so crummy.

That’s bad enough. But it gets much worse.

Total business sales are composed of three categories: sales by merchant wholesalers (33% of total), by manufacturers (36% of total), and by retailers (30% of total).

Sales by merchant wholesalers took the biggest hit: they plunged 6.4% from January a year ago, to $433.1 billion.

Symptomatic for the lousy state of business investment, sales of professional equipment dropped 4.1% year-over-year, with computer equipment and software sales plunging 10.2%. Sales of electrical equipment, the largest category among durable goods, fell 5.0%. Sales of machinery fell 1.4%. And “misc. durable” sales plunged 8.6%.

The economy’s kick-butt, take-no-prisoners winner? Sales of drugs soared 11.0% to $53.6 billion. As we found out today via Express Scripts Drug Trend Report, those sales increases weren’t caused by people suddenly taking more drugs; they were caused largely by price gouging.

Turns out, prices of brand-name prescription drugs soared 16.2% in 2015! One third of these drugs had price increases of over 20%! On average, they’re up nearly 100% since 2011. This is a patent-protected, monopolistic industry that has managed to rip off every consumer and government in the US. And there’s more. Express Scripts:

Moreover, the industry faced opportunistic manufacturers who exploited monopolies with old generic medications and captive pharmacy arrangements, and ongoing scheming by compounding pharmacies to promote sales of high-priced, no-value compound medications.

That’s a nod toward, among others, Valeant whose shares plunged 51% today. They’re now down 87% since July last year when a short seller with a big megaphone exposed the company’s nefarious practices.

To continue reading: This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy

OK, I Get it, this Stock Market Is Going to Be a Mess, by Wolf Richter

From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

With actual P/E Ratios Blowing Out Like this.

Just how overvalued are stocks, particularly small-caps? According to Wall Street, even the question is wrong. Stocks are never overvalued. They’re always a buy. The future looks bright. And even if it doesn’t look bright, analysts come up with “adjusted” earnings that are so brilliant that they blind even innocent bystanders. That’s how Wall Street justifies high stock prices.

Our miraculously visionary analysts see on average an “adjusted” forward P/E ratio for the next 12 months of 15.8 for the Dow, 16.5 for the S&P 500, 17.8 for the Nasdaq, and – get this – 16.5 for the Russell 2000, the small-cap stock market index that tracks the bottom 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000. If that were an actual P/E ratio, the Russell 2000 would be a screaming buy. But a look at reality shows just how ludicrous these “adjusted” P/E ratios, particularly for the Russell 2000, have become. And how these folks are trying to pull a bag over our heads.

So first things first. Sales are crummy. Worse than crummy. They suck.

Total US business sales – not just sales by S&P 500 companies but also sales by small caps and all other businesses, even those that are not publicly traded – peaked in July 2014 at $1.365 trillion, according to the Census Bureau. By December 2015, total business sales were down 4.6% from that peak. A bad 18 months for sales! They’re back where they’d first been in January 2013!

Sales by S&P 500 companies dropped 3.8% in 2015, according to FactSet, the worst year since the Financial Crisis.

The strong dollar gets blamed, along with the weather. But the strong dollar is a mixed bag. Many companies whose sales are limited to the US don’t feel the strong dollar, except they’re benefiting from the lower input costs it produces. Worse than the strong dollar and the weather: Companies face a slowdown and a very tough environment in the US and globally.

This chart, based on data from the Census Bureau and the St. Louis Fed, shows just how lousy sales have been since their peak in July 2014:

The last two times total business sales declined like this were linked to recessions: just before and during the 2001 recession, sales dropped 5.0% in 12 months; and during the Financial Crisis, sales fell off the cliff, as seen in the chart.

To continue reading: OK, I Get it, this Stock Market Is Going to Be a Mess