Charles Hugh Smith argues the US economy is already in a recession. He’ll get no argument from SLL. From Smith at oftwominds.com:
If we stop counting zombies, we’re already in recession.
How shocked would you be if it was announced that the U.S. had just entered a recession, that is, a period in which gross domestic product (GDP) declines (when adjusted for inflation) for two or more quarters?
Would you really be surprised to discover that the eight-year long “recovery,” the weakest on record, had finally rolled over into recession?
Anyone with even a passing acquaintance with the statistical pulse of the real-world economy knows the numbers are softening.
— Auto/light truck sales: either down or off a cliff, depending on how much lipstick has been applied to the pig.
— Restaurant/dining sales: down.
— Tax receipts: down.
— Retail sales: flat, stagnant or down, depending on the sector and if the numbers have been adjusted for inflation/loss of purchasing power.
— Rents in high-rent regions: finally softening after years of relentless increases.
— Consumer debt: hitting new highs.
— Corporate profits: stripped of gimmickry, stagnant or down.
Those who study recessions know that employment often tops out just before the economy rolls over into recession. Strong employment is the last gasp of an expansionary phase.
There are several fundamental reasons why we might be in a recession that manages to avoid the official definition. The starting place is the artificial nature of the eight-year long “recovery” since 2009; in the view of many observers, the economy never really exited the 2008-09 recession.
Those in this camp look at fundamentals, not the stock market, which has been held up as a proxy for the real economy, when in fact it is only a proxy for financialization and official selection of the market as the (easily manipulated) signifier of economic vitality and prosperity.
To continue reading: Are We Already in Recession?