Category Archives: Debt

This Is Your Last Chance, by Robert Gore

This is Part One, Part Two will be posted 1/21.

The indictment is long and strong. A cabal of politicians, governments, courts, medical authorities, pharmaceutical companies, multinational agencies, the mainstream media, academics, and foundations, particularly the World Economic Forum, have concocted responses to a virus and its variants that have robbed the people of rightful liberties, are a mechanism for the imposition of global totalitarianism, and have amplified rather than reduced the virus’s dangers, inflicting severe injury and death that will last years, perhaps decades, and afflict millions, if not billions, of victims (See “The Means Are The End,” Robert Gore, SLL, November 13, 2021).

This is their last chance. They can reverse course and pray to whatever demonic deity they pray to that it’s enough to prevent the retribution they deserve, or they can perish in the destruction they’ve created. They will reap what they have sown, their time is up.

This is it, the last gasp of the psychopaths who express their contempt and hatred for humanity by trying to rule it. Compulsion, not voluntary and natural cooperation. Power, pull, and politics, not incentives, competition, honest production, and value-for-value trade. From each according to his virtue to each according to his depravity.

The Last Gasp,” Robert Gore, SLL, March 24, 2020

Their time is up. This assertion may appear as recklessly foolish as Luke Skywalker’s ultimatum—“Jabba, this is your last chance, free us or die!”—did to Jabba the Hut at the Sarlacc Pit. It’s not, but to understand why requires an understanding of slow moving (on human time scale) but enormously powerful forces. Most history studies the wrong things and most predictions are straight line projections of the present and recent past.

The linchpin of history is innovation, not governments and rulers. We don’t know who ruled whom when humanity lived in caves, but we do know that someone tamed fire, someone planted seeds and cultivated them for food, and someone invented the wheel. With such steps humanity emerged from the caves and began building civilization. Even at this early stage one thing was clear: innovation creates new capabilities and opportunities and serves as the basis for further innovation.

Government is the acquisition of resources that enables those who govern to exercise control over those whom they govern. This presupposes resources, which presupposes production. Government is always subsidiary to production, yet most history focuses on the former and treats the latter as a secondary matter. This is looking down the telescope from the wrong end. Before a government can take someone must make.

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Report: Inflation Now Higher Than Biden’s Approval Rating

From The Babylon Bee:

U.S.—In a historic first, the inflation rate of the U.S. Dollar has surpassed the approval rating of the President.

“Wow! My inflation is way higher than Trump’s inflation! Record high! Take that, Trump!” said Biden to a bowl of oranges he had mistaken for Trump. “It’s so high it even passed my really high approval rating! That’s how you do it, Jack!”

Biden’s aides then rushed in to explain that high inflation is a bad thing.

According to experts, runaway inflation is so high that it has broken the inflation meters on all the economist’s inflation measuring machines. Many are concerned this will make the poor become instantly much poorer, even as the wealthy and the political class are protected since they are able to ride on top of the inflation wave on their very expensive inflation wave surfboards.

Biden’s approval rating is not doing nearly as well, with several pollsters revealing it has melted down and sunk deep into the Earth’s core like a massive malfunctioning nuclear reactor.

The administration hopes they can turn things around by passing some massively popular legislation, like a federal takeover of elections or mandated Pfizer drugs for all.

https://babylonbee.com/news/inflation-rate-edges-past-bidens-approval-rating

A euro catastrophe could collapse it, by Alasdair Macleod

The reckoning for a lot of bad loans is coming and it may well destroy the euro. From Alasdair Macleod at goldmoney.com:

This article looks at the situation in the euro system in the context of rising interest rates. Central to the problem is role of the ECB, which through monetary inflation embarked on a policy of transferring wealth from fiscally responsible member states to the spendthrift PIGS and France. The consequences of these policies are that the spendthrifts are now ensnared in irreversible debt traps.

Even in a Keynesian context, the ECB’s monetary policy is no longer to stimulate the economy but to keep the spendthrifts afloat. The situation has deteriorated so that Eurozone commercial banks appear to have credit restricted in New York, evidenced by the reluctance of the US banks to enter into repo transactions with them, leading to the market failure in September 2019 when the Fed had to intervene.

An examination of the numbers strongly suggests that even Eurozone banks, insurance companies and pension funds are no longer net buyers of Eurozone government debt. It could be because the terms are unattractive. But if that is the case it is an indictment of the ECB’s asset purchase programmes deliberately suppressing rates to the point where they are unattractive, even to normally compliant investors.

Consequently, without any savings offsets, the ECB has gone full Rudolf Havenstein, and is following similar inflationary policies to those that impoverished Germany’s middle classes and starved its labourers and the elderly in 1920-1923. That the German people are tolerating such an obvious destruction of their currency for the third time in a hundred years is simply astounding.

Institutionalised Madoff

Schemes to pilfer from people without their knowledge always end in disaster for the perpetrators. Central banks using their currency seigniorage are no exception. But instead of covering it up like an institutionalised Madoff[i] they use questionable science to justify their openly fraudulent behaviour. The paradox of thrift is such an example, where penalising savers by suppressing interest rates supposedly for the wider economic benefit conveniently ignores the theft involved. If you can change the way people perceive reality, you can get away with an awful lot.

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The Fed Has Triggered A Stagflationary Disaster That Will Hit Hard This Year, by Brandon Smith

The smart money bet is that the stock and bond markets don’t cope well with a stagflationary disaster. From Brandon Smith at alt-market.com:

I don’t think I can overstate the danger that the U.S. economy is in right now as we enter 2022. While most people are caught up in the ongoing drama of Covid-19, a REAL threat looms over the nation in the form of a stagflationary tidal wave. The mainstream media is attempting to place the blame on “supply chain disruptions,” but this is a misrepresentation of the issue.

The two factors are indeed intertwined, but the reality is that inflation is the cause of supply chain disruptions, not the result of supply chain disruptions. If we look at the underlying stats for price rises in essential products we can get a clearer picture.

Before I get into my argument, I really want to stress that this is a precarious time and I suggest that people prepare accordingly. In just the past few months I have seen personal expenses rise at least 20% overall, and I’m sure it’s the same or worse for most of you. Stocking necessities and safe-haven investments with intrinsic value like physical precious metals are a good choice for protecting whatever buying power your dollars have left…

Higher prices everywhere

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is officially at the highest levels in 40 years. CPI measurements often diminish the scale of the problem because they do not include things like food, energy and housing which are core expenses for the public. CPI calculations have also been “adjusted” over the past few decades by the government to express a more positive view on inflation. If we look at the inflation numbers at Shadowstats, calculated according to the same methods they used in the 1980’s, we see a dramatic increase in CPI which paints a more dire (but more accurate) picture.

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How Central Planners Corrupted the World, by MN Gordon

A small group of central planners, no matter how bright, cannot hope to plan the lives and interactions of a far larger group of individuals. From MN Gordon at economicprism.com:

The impossible happened in the late-1970s.  Inflation and unemployment simultaneously went vertical.  Leading economists were baffled.  This contradicted their academic training.

The Phillips curve said there’s an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment.  When unemployment goes down, inflation goes up.  Conversely, when unemployment goes up, inflation goes down.

Economist William Phillips first sketched his curve using wage rates and unemployment data in the UK in the years 1861 to 1957.  The depiction of explicable order was impressive.  And it provided an economic model central planners could use to somehow optimize inflation and unemployment rates through economic intervention.

How could it be, in the late-1970s, that both inflation and unemployment went up in tandem?  According to the Phillips curve they were mutually exclusive.

In reality, the Phillips curve was elegant nonsense.  Like most elegant nonsense, it was right until the precise moment it was wrong.

When unemployment began creeping up in the 1970s the U.S. Treasury, with backing from the Federal Reserve, did what Keynes had told them to do.  They ran deficits to stimulate the economy and spur jobs creation.

Per the tenets of the Phillips curve, with rising unemployment the central planners could have their cake and eat it too.  They could print money without price inflation.

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The Double Helix of Entwined Pandemic and Economic Strategy, by Alastair Crooke

When your economy runs on credit, you need a never ending stream of crises to justify never ending government and central bank injections of fiat debt. The Covid outbreak is the latest excuse for fiat debt creation. From Alastair Crooke at strategic-culture.org:

The corollary to the collapse of the technocratic initiative to liquify the over-leveraged economy might well be recession, Alastair Crooke writes.

Three years ago, I said to an American Professor from the US Army War College in Washington, in respect to the campaign to return American lost Blue Collar jobs to Asia, that these jobs would never return.  They were gone for good.

He retorted that that was precisely so, but I was missing the point, he said. America did not expect, or want, the majority of those humdrum manufacturing jobs back. They should stay in Asia. The Élites, he said, wanted only the commanding heights of Tech. They wanted the intellectual property, the protocols, the metrics, the regulatory framework that would allow America to define and expand across the next two decades of global technological evolution.

The real dilemma however, he said was, “What is to be done with the 20% of the American workforce that would be no longer needed: that was no longer necessary to the functioning of a tech-led US economy?”

In fact, what the Professor said was but one facet of a fundamental economic dilemma. From the seventies and eighties onwards, US corporations were busy offshoring their labour costs to Asia. Partly, this was to cut costs and increase profitability (which it did) — but it also represented something deeper. 

From the outset, the US has been an expansionary empire ever digesting new lands, new peoples, and their human and material resources. Forward motion, the continuous military, commercial, and cultural expansion became the lifeblood of Wall Street and of its foreign polity. For, absent this relentless expansion, the civic bonds of American unity fall into question.  An America not in motion is not America.  This forms the very essence of US leitkultur.

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Two is One . . ., by Eric Peters

Swapping increasingly worthless fiat currency for real, tangible, valuable goods looks like a good idea. From Eric Peters at ericpetersautos.com:

Wealth is not necessarily the same thing as money – especially if money is just paper. You may have $10,000 in the bank today. It may not have any value six months from now. It probably ought to make you uneasy that the value of your wealth depends on forces outside of your control – when money is just paper.

Paper under the control of sinister forces – the government, for instance. Or rather, the “Fed,” the cartel of private banks that bought the government about 100 years ago and which has used it ever since – to mulct the public by various means, including the manufacturing of “money” out of thin air, which is then loaned to the government at interest – which you and I get to pay in the form of “taxes” and “inflation.” (For more about this, I recommend G. Edward Griffin’s Creature From Jekyll Island which explains in detail how the federal government was bought – and sold us out.)

Things of intrinsic value under your control are much better when the value of money isn’t.

Land – especially useful land (i.e., land that could be useful for raising things to eat) and a home (useful for keeping you and yours sheltered) are two very good examples of this. The value of your land/home may increase or decrease in monetary terms  but they will always retain intrinsic value, which is a priceless thing when money becomes a value-less thing, courtesy of the “Fed.”

Tangible things are another form of value that keeps the invisible rats of inflation – the tool of the “Fed” – at bay. If you exchange say $600 for a pistol you will have a valuable pistol, the value of which cannot be inflated away. Plus you will have physical possession of the pistol, a value in and of itself.

The same goes for tools, equipment, clothing, food – and so on.

The more such things in your possession, the better – as times get worse.  The things of value not in your possession may not be available and will probably  cost you more to acquire them, as the value of money wanes in conjunction with the manufacturing of more of it by the “Fed” – an entity that is “federal” in the way the Fed Ex is.

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Fourth Turning 2022 — Bad Moon Rising, by Jim Quinn

Although the propaganda around Covid is being attacked and destroyed with science and the truth, a good chunk of the media and populace continue to believe regardless. From Jim Quinn at theburningplatform.com:

“Try to unlearn the obsessive fear of death (and the anxious quest for death avoidance) that pervades linear thinking in nearly every modern society. The ancients knew that, without periodic decay and death, nature cannot complete its full round of biological and social change. Without plant death, weeds would strangle the forest. Without human death, memories would never die, and unbroken habits and customs would strangle civilization. Social institutions require no less. Just as floods replenish soil and fires rejuvenate forests, a Fourth Turning clears out society’s exhausted elements and creates an opportunity.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Coronavirus: Is Germany doing enough to slow the outbreak? | Germany | News and in-depth reporting from Berlin and beyond | DW | 14.03.2020

“Institutions will be increasingly bossy, limiting personal freedoms, chastising bad manners, and cleansing the culture. Powerful new civic organizations will make judgments about which individual rights deserve respect and which do not. Criminal justice will become swift and rough, trampling on some innocents to protect an endangered and desperate society from those feared to be guilty. Expect a loss of personal privacy. Fourth Turnings can be dark times for the free spirit: Just as one kind of official may have new authority to do something for you, another kind—some hastily deputized magistrate—may have new authority to do something to you.”Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

It’s been almost a year since my annual look ahead at the upcoming year. Last year’s article FOURTH TURNING DETONATION was a big picture overview of where we stood during the thirteenth year of this ongoing Fourth Turning Crisis. I had given up trying to make specific predictions because the twenty-year length of a Crisis period does not lend itself to specificity within a given year. My comment at the beginning of the article was:

“Predicting the actual events which will occur over a short-term time frame is a fool’s errand, so I prefer to try and discern the direction and amplitude of the ongoing Crisis to gauge how we should prepare for what is coming.”

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Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Spike: Markets Begin to Grapple with Quantitative Tightening, by Wolf Richter

Unless we get massive deflation in a hurry (unlikely) bonds may be the single worst investment out there. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

The two-year Treasury yield started rising in late September, from about 0.23%, and ended the year at 0.73%. In the five trading days since then, it jumped to 0.87%, the highest since February 28, 2020. Most of the jump occurred on Wednesday and Thursday, triggered by the hawkish Fed minutes on Wednesday.

Markets are finally and in baby steps starting to take the Fed seriously. And the most reckless Fed ever – it’s still printing money hand-over-fist and repressing short-term interest rates to near 0%, despite the worst inflation in 40 years – is finally and in baby steps, after some kind of come-to-Jesus moment late last year, starting to take inflation seriously. Treasury yields are now responding:

Jawboning about Quantitative Tightening.

Even though the Fed hasn’t actually done any hawkish thing, and is still printing money and repressing interest rates to near 0%, it is laying the groundwork with innumerable warnings all over the place, from the FOMC post-meeting presser on December 15, when Powell said everything would move faster, to hawkish speeches by Fed governors, to the very hawkish minutes of the FOMC meeting, which put Quantitative Tightening in black-and-white.

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The Federal Reserve Keeps Buying Mortgages, by Alex J. Polluck

Why is the Federal Reserve in the mortgage market at all? From Alex J. Polluck at mises.org:

Runaway house price inflation continues to characterize the U.S. market. House prices across the country rose 15.8% on average in October 2021 from the year before. U.S. house prices are far over their 2006 Bubble peak, and remain over the Bubble peak even after adjustment for consumer price inflation. They will keep on rising at the annual rate of 14–16% for the rest of 2021, according to the AEI Housing Center.

Unbelievably, in this situation the Federal Reserve keeps on buying mortgages. It buys a lot of them and continues to be the price-setting marginal buyer or Big Bid in the mortgage market, expanding its mortgage portfolio with one hand, and printing money with the other. It should have stopped before now, but the purchases, financed by newly created fiat money, or monetization, go on. They proceed at the rate of tens of billions of dollars a month, stoking the house price inflation, making it harder and harder for new families to afford a house. A recent Wall Street Journal opinion piece was entitled “How the Fed Rigs the Bond Market”—it rigs the mortgage market, too.

The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has grown to a size that would have amazed previous generations of Federal Reserve governors and economists. Although we have become somewhat accustomed to it, so fast do perceptions adjust, it would also have surprised readers of Housing Finance International of five years ago, and readers of 15 years ago would probably have judged the current reality simply impossible. Over time, we keep discovering how feeble are our judgments of what is possible or impossible.

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