Coronavirus crisis management — what really happened and why it failed, by Anthony Mueller

Bad models, uncritically accepted, were in part responsible for the coronavirus botch. From Anthony Mueller at medium.com:

Shutting down the economy and bringing social life to a standstill did not contain the epidemic. The virus spread and in addition to the harm done by the epidemic itself, additional immense damage has come upon many people because of the lockdown.

Problematic predictions

As an economist, I am trained in making forecasts and am thus familiar with the pitfalls of making predictions. Many processes in economics have similar patterns as epidemics. From the spread of new products to recessions and the contagions that happen in currency crises, processes similar to “pandemics” take place. Widely ignored at its inception, and at first, only slowly growing, crises often remain undetected until it is too late. When the problem finally gets attention, the authorities tend to overreact. Countermeasures are taken that do not contain the problem but acerbate the problems.

Often it would have been better to do nothing and let the things run its course. Yet governments are asked to do something. The population gets hyped-up as the media urges uncritically that something must get done. The same type of error as it often happens in economic policy has also been the case with the lockdown in 2020.

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2 responses to “Coronavirus crisis management — what really happened and why it failed, by Anthony Mueller

  1. I had recently decided to work on my vocabulary, specifically to avoid swearing. After reading this and a couple of other articles here, all my good intentions have gone to hell. This crap has reached the point that ordinary swear words no longer cut the mustard.

    Like

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