California Recession Incoming, by John Seiler

California’s tax receipts have always been boom or bust, and right now they’re starting to bust. From John Seiler at The Epoch Times at

recession is hitting California. The only question is how hard it will be.

The July Finance Bulletin by Keely Bosler, director of the California Department of Finance, calculated for the personal income tax (PIT), “Cash receipts for June were $3.345 billion below the forecast of $16.939 billion.” The actual receipts were $13.594 billion.

Receipts vary month to month because of when people file their tax reports. So it’s best to compare a particular month to the same month in the previous year. According to the July 2021 report, “Cash receipts for June were also $1.783 billion above the month’s forecast of $15.312 billion.” So the actual receipts were $17.095 billion a year ago June.

Put them together. June 2021 actual receipts were $17.095 billion and for June 2022, $13.594 billion. That was a drop of $3.501 billion, or 20 percent. If that continues, the yearly loss for fiscal year 2021-22, which began on July 1, would be $42 billion.

The expected $97 billion surplus would be only $55 billion. All that surplus money Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Legislature promised to spend in June would have to be cut by $42 billion.

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