Tag Archives: Black Sea

Putin warns US against misadventures, by M. K. Bhadadrakumar

Russia can take care of itself, and will do so if threatened. From M. K. Bhadadrakumar at indianpunchline.com:

(Russia’s President Vladimir Putin addresses an extended meeting of the Russian Defence Ministry Board in the National Defence Management Centre in Moscow, Dec 18, 2018)

The Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address to an expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board in Moscow on December 18 stands out as a tour d’horizon of the global strategic balance. The speech must be seen against the backdrop of the free fall in US-Russia relations, build-up of NATO infrastructure on Russia’s western borders and, in particular, the Trump administration’s statements about the US withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty of 1987.

Broadly, Putin’s message is in three directions:

The modernization of Russian armed forces has been most successful and the combat readiness of Russian military is at an all-time high level;

Russia has developed new hypersonic weapons of immense destructive power, which are going into serial production for deployment with the strategic nuclear forces to which the US simply has no answer;

Russia is determined to ensure that any US attempts to tilt the strategic balance in its favor will be effectively countered.

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Latest Odds of a Shooting War Between NATO and Russia, by Ann Garrison

The odds are climbing, says George Szamuely, in an interview with Ann Garrison at consortiumnews.com:

Hungarian scholar George Szamuely tells Ann Garrison that he sees a 70 percent chance of combat between NATO and Russia following the incident in the Kerch Strait and that it is being fueled by Russia-gate.

George Szamuely is a Hungarian-born scholar and Senior Research Fellow at London’s Global Policy Institute. He lives in New York City. I spoke to him about escalating hostilities on Russia’s Ukrainian and Black Sea borders and about Exercise Trident Juncture, NATO’s massive military exercise on Russian borders which ended just as the latest hostilities began.

Ann Garrison: George, the hostilities between Ukraine, NATO, and Russia continue to escalate in the Sea of Azov, the Kerch Strait, and the Black Sea. What do you think the latest odds of a shooting war between NATO and Russia are, if one hasn’t started by the time this is published?

George Szamuely: Several weeks ago, when we first talked about this, I said 60 percent. Now I’d say, maybe 70 percent. The problem is that Trump seems determined to be the anti-Obama. Obama, in Trump’s telling, “allowed” Russia to take Crimea and to “invade” Ukraine. Therefore, it will be up to Trump to reverse this. Just as he, Trump, reversed Obama’s policy on Iran by walking away from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal. So expect ever-increasing US involvement in Ukraine.

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Don’t Sweat It—-The Russian Fighters Were Unarmed And Lethal US Warships Were In Its Backyard, by Pater Tenebrarum

The headlines shout when US warships are buzzed by Russian military aircraft. The headlines never shout that the buzzings occur in places like the Black and Baltic Sea. Not that it would matter if they did, because most Americans don’t know where the Black and Baltic Seas are. If they bothered to look, they’d discover they are next to Russia. Next question: how would the average American feel about Russian warships in the Gulf of Mexico? From Pater Tenebrarum at davidstockmanscontracorner.com:

Provocative Fighter Jocks

Back in 2014, a Russian jet made headlines when it passed several times close to the USS Donald Cook in the Black Sea. As CBS reported at the time:

“A Pentagon spokesperson told CBS Radio that a Russian SU-24 fighter jet made several low altitude, close passes in the vicinity of the USS Donald Cook in international waters of the western Black Sea on April 12. While the jet did not overfly the deck, Col. Steve Warren called the action “provocative and unprofessional.”

The jet was one of two Russian aircraft in the vicinity — the other flew at a higher altitude. The close-flying jet came within a few thousand feet of the USS Donald Cook, a guided missile destroyer which was conducting a “routine mission” at the time. The U.S. ship tried to contact the plane’s cockpit, but received no response. The Russian plane, which the U.S. says was unarmed, made at least 12 passes. This continued for about 90 minutes. The event ended without incident.”

An unarmed plane making passes! Very provocative. Let’s briefly look at a map of the Black Sea:

The Black Sea, with the USS Donald Cook in it

Recently the same thing happened again, this time in the Baltic Sea. The Guardian reports:

“The US navy released photos and videos showing Russian SU-24 fighter jets flying low over the sea and “buzzing” the USS Donald Cook – a destroyer of the Arleigh Burke class – which carries guided missiles and which had just made a call at the Polish port of Gdynia.

According to the US European Command (Eucom) in Stuttgart, there were a number of such close encounters on Monday and Tuesday, involving both Russian fighter jets and helicopters, while the Donald Cook was in international waters in the Baltic Sea, off the coast of Poland. Those waters are also close to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.”

Assorted experts (of which we seem to have a nigh endless supply – the number of “think tanks” racking their brains over such things is astonishing) worry that such encounters could by mistake turn into something nasty. Perhaps, but we actually think the probability of that happening is negligible. Otherwise, Russia and Turkey would be at war already.

Let us take a look at a map of the Baltic Sea:

The Baltic Sea, with the USS Donald Cook in it. The red spot between Poland and Lithuania is actually Russian territory – the Kaliningrad enclave (formerly the German city of Königsberg).

These maps reveal clearly what the real problem is. The Russians have aggressively and provocatively built their country far too close to where the USS Donald Cook is sailing.

To continue reading: Don’t Sweat It—-The Russian Fighters Were Unarmed And Lethal US Warships Were In Its Backyard