Guns or Granny: The Looming Political Battle of the West, by Gary North

Gary North conducts a political analysis of the US’s looming fiscal problems and reaches one conclusion: granny wins. From North at lewrockwell.com:

I begin with a familiar pie chart. It is well named. It is a chart of the political pie.

This chart is from 2015. The right side of this chart is going to expand relentlessly from now on. Every day, 10,000 people go on Medicare. Medicare costs the government over $1,000 a month for each person enrolled. This inflow of eligible recipients is not going to stop for the next 20 years.

Now look at the bottom of the chart: Non-defense Discretionary. It was 16% in 2015, but you can be sure that it is closer to 14% today. This is the political battlefield in Washington: available loot. The rest of the loot is spoken for already. Politics cannot change the rest of the budget. Politics today, in terms of federal spending, is now down to under 14% of the budget, and it is probably heading toward 10% by 2022, when a new President will be in power.

Sometime before the 20’s are over, there will be no more discretionary slice of the budgetary pie. At that point, there is going to be a guerilla war in Washington. It will be a battle over the size of the slices of pie. Political voting blocs that thought the size of their slice was guaranteed will find that it isn’t.

This outcome of battle is going to change the nature of civil government in the United States. A series of battles that parallel ours will take place in Western Europe, where it all began in the 1880’s: Bismarck’s welfare state.

THE BUREAUCRATIZATION OF AMERICA

The greatest single threat to liberty in the West is what it has been for at least a century: the expansion of administrative law. This system is extending the power of central governments into every nook and cranny of the West. Bureaucracies have created administrative law courts that have been substituted for civil courts all over the West. Bureaucratic agencies provide their own judges. They serve as their own juries. Then they execute the laws that they have interpreted autonomously. This process is well developed, and it appears to be irresistible. It is the overturning of the Western legal tradition, as described by Harold Berman in his Introduction to Law and Revolution (1983).

This process is relentless. It is not affected by politics. It is protected in the United States by Civil Service rules. All over the West, comparable protections exist. These people are tenured. They cannot be fired. Their word is the law. This system is manifested in the United States by the Federal Register, which publishes over 80,000 pages of fine-print regulations every year.

To continue reading: Guns or Granny: The Looming Political Battle of the West

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5 responses to “Guns or Granny: The Looming Political Battle of the West, by Gary North

  1. Reblogged this on The way I see things … and commented:
    chart is from 2015. The right side of this chart is going to expand relentlessly from now on. Every day, 10,000 people go on Medicare. Medicare costs the government over $1,000 a month for each person enrolled. This inflow of eligible recipients is not going to stop for the next 20 years.

    Now look at the bottom of the chart: Non-defense Discretionary. It was 16% in 2015, but you can be sure that it is closer to 14% today. This is the political battlefield in Washington: available loot. The rest of the loot is spoken for already. Politics cannot change the rest of the budget. Politics today, in terms of federal spending, is now down to under 14% of the budget, and it is probably heading toward 10% by 2022, when a new President will be in power.

    Sometime before the 20’s are over, there will be no more discretionary slice of the budgetary pie. At that point, there is going to be a guerilla war in Washington. It will be a battle over the size of the slices of pie. Political voting blocs that thought the size of their slice was guaranteed will find that it isn’t.

    This outcome of battle is going to change the nature of civil government in the United States. A series of battles that parallel ours will take place in Western Europe, where it all began in the 1880’s: Bismarck’s welfare state.

    Money talks. People listen. People think. They come up with new ideas. Then ideas have consequences.

    Today’s dominant ideas will not shape what happens over the next 35 years. Money will shape it. More to the point, the absence of money will shape it. The battle over the nondiscretionary budgets will shape it.

    This is the grand opportunity today. It is time for serious thinkers to begin thinking seriously about a world in which the nondiscretionary budgets of all national governments in the West must be re-allocated to meet the growing demands of the retired oldsters.

    The outcome of this budgeting process and the re-thinking of this process will re-shape society around the world between 2050 and 2100.

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  2. I am ogoing for Granny a.k.a. Mawmaw

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  3. How about the Pentagon deciding America needs to be strong, Granny be damned i.e. a coup. Or, Leftists (after Trump) get and stay in power until USA is so close to a totalitarian state individuals are not important especially the easily disposable grannies and other elderly. Or with open borders, illegals and Islam keep on invading… Longish time lines but G.North’s proposed scenario just might get interrupted.

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  4. Peter is broke, paul has no remorse,
    We can no loger beat this dead horse,
    This house of cards is about to collapse,
    For us there’ll be no lapse,
    The grand illusion has run it’s course.

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  5. Please, please, don’t write us off yet
    Just because we have our mountain of debt
    We’ll dither, evade, and delay decisions hard
    Until our creditors take away our card

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