One Day Soon, The Sun Will Not Rise, by Chris Hamilton

The Econimica blog has a lot of great graphs, and it usually has a different perspective than everyone else. From Chris Hamilton at econimica.blogspot.com:

When the Q4 US resident population data is released, something that has not happened in the post WWII era will take place.   The population of adults aged 15-64 years old will decline.  This was not supposed to happen and will put an end to seven plus decades of continuous population growth which has meant a growing workforce, a growing consumer base, and growing tax base.  A growing core US population, something considered as sacrosanct as the sun rising, will not happen.  On a year over year basis, where there once were up to 3 million more homebuyers than the previous year, 3 million more car buyers than the year before, 3 million more potential customers…there will be likely be thousands fewer.

Many will assume this is a demographic issue of boomers exiting the working age population…but actually demographics is simply the early onset of a disease that will only progressively worsen.  This is truly a population growth issue, not simply a demographic distribution problem.

The economic system the US and world have adopted are dependent on perpetual growth on a quarter over quarter and year over year basis.  Two negative quarters (or even zero growth) and a recession is called and all the Federal Reserve’s and federal governments tools are employed.

Given the importance of growth, the most important factor in growing the economy is the rising demand represented by a growing population.  But the US fertility rate has been negative for 45 years (chart below) meaning the native population (plus immigrants) have continually failed to replace themselves.

This means US population growth has simply been a story of immigration.  And until 2000, N. America was the primary destination for the majority of the world’s immigrants.  However, since ’00 and particularly since ’05, the migration patterns have significantly changed.

To continue reading: One Day Soon, The Sun Will Not Rise

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