For a variety of reasons both economic and financial, economist David Rosenberg thinks the equity bull market is done. From Rosenberg at businessinsider.com:
- It’s looking more and more like the top tick for stocks was recorded on January 26, says David Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff.
- Rosenberg expands on this and 12 other thoughts on the current market environment.
All three of the major indices are down in three of the past four weeks. The degree of volatility is symptomatic only of a market in transition. I mean — nine of the past eleven sessions have seen the S&P 500 swing up or down 1% or more. So far this year, the number of such intensely volatile days already has tripled what we experienced in 2017. And the fact that the Dow has now posted two individual periods in the same year of 10%+ declines says the same thing — declines like these back-to-back are more like hallmarks of bear, not bull, markets. New lows have outnumbered new highs for 12 of the past 13 sessions — so you be the judge of what the internals are suggesting right now.
And yet the bulls are undeterred (as if we are supposed to get excited, from a contrary standpoint, just because the National Association of Active Managers survey of average portfolio manager exposures to the stock market has gone to 55.6 from an average of 71 in the first quarter).
Friday’s action is a case in point. Selling on higher volume and if you were watching what happened the three prior days, the buying was on weak volume. All major 11 sectors closed the week in the red.