It increasingly looks like the bull market in stocks is over, by David Rosenberg

For a variety of reasons both economic and financial, economist David Rosenberg thinks the equity bull market is done. From Rosenberg at businessinsider.com:

  • It’s looking more and more like the top tick for stocks was recorded on January 26, says David Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff.
  • Rosenberg expands on this and 12 other thoughts on the current market environment.
 1. The bull market is over. This doesn’t mean we won’t be getting tradable rallies along the way. But it does look increasingly as though we saw the highs on January 26th for the cycle.

All three of the major indices are down in three of the past four weeks. The degree of volatility is symptomatic only of a market in transition. I mean — nine of the past eleven sessions have seen the S&P 500 swing up or down 1% or more. So far this year, the number of such intensely volatile days already has tripled what we experienced in 2017. And the fact that the Dow has now posted two individual periods in the same year of 10%+ declines says the same thing — declines like these back-to-back are more like hallmarks of bear, not bull, markets. New lows have outnumbered new highs for 12 of the past 13 sessions — so you be the judge of what the internals are suggesting right now.

And yet the bulls are undeterred (as if we are supposed to get excited, from a contrary standpoint, just because the National Association of Active Managers survey of average portfolio manager exposures to the stock market has gone to 55.6 from an average of 71 in the first quarter).

Friday’s action is a case in point. Selling on higher volume and if you were watching what happened the three prior days, the buying was on weak volume. All major 11 sectors closed the week in the red.

 I mentioned last week that we have already seen evidence in the earnings season that companies that beat are seeing their stocks sell off. Classic case of there still being too much optimism priced in at current levels, even after the turbulence of late. And Spotify’sshaky debut is another hallmark of a changed investing landscape — the shares began trading on Tuesday at $165.90 and closed the week at $147.92. This is not at all characteristic of bull-market behavior.
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One response to “It increasingly looks like the bull market in stocks is over, by David Rosenberg

  1. Gee looking at the results of Monday and Tuesday and I’d say as a predictor of stock market results this author has a wonderful future ahead of him playing the accordion for tips at Ben’s Chilly Bowl.

    Any bets the market should be up another 5% by the end of the year, even with two more rate increases? I also predict a 10% gain in 2019.

    Like

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