If you’re focusing on the polls as an indication of the election, remember 2016, when they had Hillary winning. There are a lot of reasons why polls no longer have much predictive power. From Kurt Schlichter at theburningplatform.com:
When there is something that I really want to be true and things are leading me to believe that it is true, the lawyer and soldier in me both compel me to look for why I might be wrong. After all, confirmation bias exists – you want to believe that what you want is what actually is. Just look at Twitter. It’s a veritable orgy of liberal confirmation bias, though a gross, icky orgy like you might have seen at an after-party on a Bulwark cruise.
I really want President Donald Trump to be reelected. There are a lot of reasons, including my liking the Constitution, enjoying economic prosperity, and not wanting to be ruled by the sinister leftist Geppettos who are holding the strings that make their gropey, weird old Pinocchio dance. And I think Trump will win.
This is what makes me redouble my efforts to see if I am deluding myself, to see if I am skipping over unhelpful realities and emphasizing non-indicating indicators in order to wring out the result I want – another flood of tears issuing from the eyes of hordes of Democrat saps seeing their dream of a Nuevo Venezuela here in America pushed back a minimum of four more years.
I can’t convince myself I am wrong. I’ve tried. And I keep coming back to the same place. If I were a betting man, I’d put my money down on The Donald again.