Doug Casey thinks the likelihood is low. American politicians are stupid, but not that stupid. From Casey at internationalman.com:
International Man: Recently, the Biden administration threatened Russia over Ukraine.
What’s really going on? Is the US government toying with the prospect of war with Russia over Ukraine?
Doug Casey: Over thousands of years of history, governments have always threatened each other with war. It’s a good part of what they do to justify their existence, and it’s been said, correctly, that war is the health of the state. Nothing has changed in that regard.
The main reason that the US government is beating the war drums is that war has always been a distraction from domestic problems. Create a foreign enemy on whom to blame domestic problems, and it will reliably divert the news cycle from things you don’t want the hoi polloi to hear or talk about. A real or fabricated foreign enemy unites the public. The further the economy and the society deteriorate, the more war-mongering we’ll hear from Washington.
It’s especially perverse in that anything that happens between Russia and Ukraine is of zero relevance to the US. Ukraine is a backwater. It’s as illogical for the US to stick its nose into that hornet’s nest as to get involved in any of dozens of African revolts, coups, and border wars. I’m surprised the Jacobins in the Biden administration haven’t, for instance, gotten involved in Ethiopia’s ongoing civil war too. Most people are completely unaware of it—which is actually a good thing in the current environment.