Here’s an unusual assessment of the beneficiaries of the Ukraine-Russian war from Gregory R. Copley at oilprice.com:
- China has, in recent years, become increasingly isolated on the global stage and was considered a major foreign policy concern for the United States and its allies.
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only reignited geopolitical tensions in Europe but has also pushed Russia towards China and ensured the entrenchment of a new Eurasian bloc.
- China will be watching the development of Russia’s invasion closely, searching for parallels and lessons for its potential invasion of Taiwan.
Russia’s war with Ukraine has, for the time being, saved the Communist Party of China (CPC) and therefore the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
The isolation of Russia as part of the US-led global information warfare campaign has completed the process of driving Russia “back into the arms of Beijing”. This was occurring at a time when the economy of the PRC was imploding and the CPC, under General-Secretary Xi Jinping, was attempting to retain global power while essentially ring-fencing its economy from outside influence.
The situation does not guarantee the PRC’s revival as a wealthy power, but, even though it now becomes more dependent on Russia, it does at least allow the Communist Party of China to survive.
The PRC, as the world’s largest importer of food and energy, and now with diminishing foreign currency reserves, sees that Russia has nowhere else to go except to elevate the PRC to the position of Moscow’s most important trading and security partner.
And because this is literally an issue that could save a declining PRC, Beijing’s assessment of the ongoing conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine has to be along far more pragmatic lines than Western assessments, which tend to be either based around irrational fear or euphoric optimism.
General Secretary Xi and his team are, as a result, evaluating ongoing lessons from the current Russian military conflict against Ukraine, and the new phase of the Russian strategic war with the US. Their assessments cannot follow the unrealistic views being promulgated by Western analysts.