Why the Housing Bubble Bust Is Baked In, by Charles Hugh Smith

When you blow up bubbles they bust. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

Putting this all together, it’s clear that the source of the current housing bubble is the explosion of financial speculation fueled by central bank policies.

Those benefiting from speculative bubbles have powerful incentives to deny the bubble can bust. Rationalizations abound as bubbles inflate, and the continued ascent of speculative bets seems to “prove” the rationalizations are correct.

But bubbles arise from speculative excesses, and once these reach extremes and reverse, bubbles burst and all the self-serving rationalizations are revealed as rationalizations.

Let’s start with some caveats I’ve already covered in Is Housing a Bubble That’s About to Crash? (May 2, 2022):

1. Housing is local, so there may be locales where prices are still rising due to unquenchable demand and low supply and other places where demand is low and supply ample where prices plummet.

2. The wealthiest 1% on a global scale is a very large number, and wealthy buyers seeking a safe haven in North America come with cash and don’t care about mortgage rates. Desirable enclaves could see home prices climb even as the national bubble pops. (World population: 7.8 billion X 1% = 78,000.000 or roughly 30,000,000 households.)

Continue reading→

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.