Put money supply growth with all the other fading indicators and it’s beginning to look a lot like recession. From Ryan McMaken at mises.org:
Money supply growth fell again in August, dropping to a 36-month low. August’s drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. During the thirteen months between April 2020 and April 2021, money supply growth in the United States often climbed above 35 percent year over year, well above even the “high” levels experienced from 2009 to 2013.
During August 2022, year-over-year (YOY) growth in the money supply was at 4.35 percent. That’s down from July’s rate of 4.84 percent, and down from August 2021’s rate of 8.28 percent. The growth rate peaked in February 2021 at 23.12 percent.
The growth rates during most of 2020, and through April 2021, were much higher than anything we’d seen during previous cycles, with the 1970s being the only period that came close. Since then, however, we have seen a fast fall from previous highs and such rapid declines generally point to economic contraction in following months.
