Europe’s largest economy is faltering and the slide appears to be getting worse. From Tom Luongo at tomluongo.me:
Back in April I told you that Germany was a “Dead Economy Walking.” Today I get to tell you that it’s legs are gone.
This morning’s manufacturing PMI print was the worst news Angela Merkel could have imagined, 41.4. A figure so awful dogs will want to roll on it.
Overall, Germany’s economy at the purchasing manager’s level is contracting. And with Merkel masking a massive tax increase as a political cave to the rising Greens the future for Germany’s economic growth looks as bad as the following chart.
Aside from the obvious, the big takeaway from this chart is the consistency with which analysts who are paid a lot more than me over-estimate this number. It’s a brilliant depiction of confirmation bias.
And you can see why this happens. Conventional wisdom tells us that an accommodative central bank, and the ECB’s negative interest rates are the height of accommodation, should support continued manufacturing growth because credit is cheap. Continue reading
