Into the Swarm #1: Archegos in the Coal Mine, by Romain Bocher

Investors herd, driving prices up and then scattering, taking their liquidity with them, when the market heads the other way. From Romain Bocher at theswarmblog.com:

Down the Market Hole

 

While the S&P 500 keeps rallying and hitting new records, the spectacular collapse of Archegos family office brought a sharp reminder of the consequences of excessive leverage in the financial system.

As always, Warren Buffet had already warned us: “Having a large amount of leverage is like driving a car with a dagger on the steering wheel pointed at your heart. If you do that, you will be a better driver. There will be fewer accidents but when they happen, they will be fatal.”

I do not know what the worst part of that story is. Whether it is the fact that Bill Hwang had criminal record. Or that Archegos used the same collateral to enter contracts with up to seven banks boosting leverage as high as 500%. Or if it is Nomura’s reaction, saying basically that whatever happens central banks will rescue banks if needed. Nothing seems to matter anymore for a system accustomed to perpetual bailouts since the LTCM failure.

But beyond those ethical considerations, the Archegos collapse has taught a few interesting things about US capital markets.

The first lesson for investors is the fact that years of lose monetary policy have laid the ground for moral hazard and very risky bets, as evidenced by the  record of margin debt. And the higher the leverage ratio, the bigger the vulnerability to unexpected moves.

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One response to “Into the Swarm #1: Archegos in the Coal Mine, by Romain Bocher

  1. Pingback: Into the Swarm #1: Archegos in the Coal Mine, by Romain Bocher | STRAIGHT LINE LOGIC – Additional survival tricks

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