Orthodoxy cannot be challenged, which means that can’t adapt to present realities or change in response to new ones. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:
Heresy evolves, orthodoxy cannot. Plan accordingly. Orthodoxies offer the comforting illusion of solidarity. But in what lies ahead, we’re on our own.
In today’s world, the key orthodoxies are secular rather than religious: they are economic, ideological, political. Religious orthodoxy is in the spiritual realm. It may have secular ramifications (for example, Galileo being forced to renounce his scientific advances) but it doesn’t deal with forecasts of real-world systems.
Economic, ideological and geopolitical orthodoxies are different. They make forecasts about the real world, and they will be right or wrong.
The orthodoxies are roughly divided into two camps: the Establishment/Status Quo orthodoxies and the alternative orthodoxies.
Both are fiercely defended by True Believers, as the orthodoxy is the foundation of the True Believers’ identity and worldview.
The two orthodoxies aren’t necessarily diametrically opposed. Sometimes they overlap.
Much of what passes for “informed commentary” now is nothing more than True Believers cherry-picking whatever supports their orthodoxy. In this mindset, what’s important is that everyone agrees with the orthodoxy. Public fealty to the orthodoxy is all that matters.
In this climate, projecting an outcome that doesn’t fit an orthodoxy is heresy and must be suppressed.
I don’t see any value in trying to persuade others to agree with me. The analysis goes where it goes, and it doesn’t really matter if we like the conclusion or no