Category Archives: Military

They Wouldn’t Really Go Nuclear, Would They? By Jeff Thomas

They might. From Jeff Thomas at internationalman.com:

limited nuclear war

In 2014, the US funded a coup d’état in Ukraine, ejecting the democratically elected president and installing an American puppet. The new regime then set about attacking the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, which were predominantly Russian. Russia did not intervene, even though the US was messing in Russia’s “back yard.” It did, however, draw some “red lines,” warning the Ukrainian government in Kiev that if it tried to take Crimea, join NATO, or become a nuclear state, Russia would invade.

In February 2022, Ukrainian puppet-President Zelensky announced at the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine would go nuclear. That was the trigger that caused Russia to invade Ukraine, days later. The US declared outrage and sought to involve NATO in retaliation. The American media was filled with angry reports of the “unprovoked invasion,” stating that Russia’s goal was to seize all of Europe.

Since that time, the US media have maintained a constant barrage of propaganda regarding the war. The theme is always the same: The Russians are a murderous army, killing civilians and bombing hospitals and schools. But they are also incompetent, poorly led, their troops riddled with deserters, losing battle after battle, and experiencing far more casualties than the Ukrainians.

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Recognizing The War Is Lost The ‘West’ Seeks An Exit, by Moon of Alabama

Good luck, Biden administration, trying to devise an exit that’s even within field goal range of being face saving. From Moon of Alabama at moonofalabama.org:

U.S. President Joe Biden is in Kiev today to rescue his lunatic project of destroying Russia by proxy war. But there is no good way to do that.

A review of ‘western’ media shows that the inevitable outcome of the war is now recognized. The only still open alternatives are to risk a large nuclear war or to retreat from ‘western’ dreams of its permanent hegemony.

Few ‘western’ officials will admit that the war is lost, that  Russia has won in Ukraine. But it has. It had won the war when it successfully trapped the Ukrainian army into a war of attrition.

A the Russian commentator Sacha Rogers writes (in Russian, machine translation):

This war has already been won (moreover, what is most offensive for various “unrecognized geniuses”, without their participation and contrary to their foolish ideas of how it should be won). It was won at the moment when, instead of a highly maneuverable war, our General Staff imposed a positional “standing” with an attrition war on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Strictly by the textbook: Attrition warfare is a military strategy consisting of belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material.

Ukraine has already lost two armies and it is begging for a third one. But the ‘West’ is unable to deliver it:

Less than a quarter of the modern battle tanks the West has promised to Ukraine are likely to arrive in time to counter an anticipated Russian spring offensive.

Kyiv is expecting its supporters to send up to 320 western tanks in total but estimates suggest barely 50 will reach the front lines by the start of April, prompting concerns they will not be enough to have a substantial impact on the fighting.

The recognition that the Ukraine has lost the war is creating a panic in those quarters that are committed to ‘western’ uni-polarity.

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Russia And China Draw ‘Red Lines’ On Their Borders; US Draws Them On The Other Side Of The Planet, by Caitlin Johnstone

You get to draw red lines wherever you want when you run the global unipolar empire. From Caitlin Johnstone at caitlinjohnstone.com:

Reacting to China’s announcement that it will be putting forward a proposal for a political settlement to end the war in Ukraine, the US ambassador to the United Nations said that if China begins arming Russia in that conflict this will be a “red line” for the United States.

“We welcome the Chinese announcement that they want peace because that’s what we always want to pursue in situations like this. But we also have to be clear that if there are any thoughts and efforts by the Chinese and others to provide lethal support to the Russians in their brutal attack against Ukraine, that that is unacceptable,” Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told CNN on Sunday.

“That would be a red line,” she said.

The US ambassador to the United Nations said that China would cross a “red line” if the country decided to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/R47CzEZmJi

— CNN (@CNN) February 19, 2023

The ambassador’s comments pertained to an unsubstantiated claim made by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday that China is “considering providing lethal support to Russia in the war against Ukraine,” according to US intelligence.

The US has been making evidence-free claims in relation to China arming Russia against Ukraine since the war began. In March of last year the New York Times reported that “Russia asked China to give it military equipment and support for the war in Ukraine after President Vladimir V. Putin began a full-scale invasion last month, according to U.S. officials.” Then in April of last year NBC reported that this claim “lacked hard evidence” and was essentially just a lie the US government told the media “as part of an information war against Russia.”

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An Unexpected Insight (for the Élite): The U.S. May Be the Biggest Loser in the War on Russia, by Alasdair Crooke

The only other candidate for biggest loser will be Ukraine. From Alasdair Crooke at strategic-culture.org:

Where does Europe go in the wake of the Nord Stream allegations? It is hard to see a Germany-dominated Europe diverging far from Washington.

“NATO has never been stronger; Russia is a global Pariah; and the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience; in short, Russia has lost, Russia has lost strategically, operationally and tactically – and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield”.

He, (General Mark Milley, U.S. Chief of Defence Staff) doesn’t believe a word of that. We know that he doesn’t believe it because, two months ago, he said the exact opposite – until he was chastised by the White House for straying off the Joe Biden message. Now he is back, playing on ‘Team’.

Zelensky likely also doesn’t believe the word of the recent European promise of tanks and aircraft – and he knows it to be mostly a chimera. But he plays on Team. A few extra tanks will make no difference on the ground, and his fifth mobilisation is being resisted at home. The European militaries are waiting-out this episode, their armouries running on ‘reserve tank’.

Zelensky repeatedly says he must have tanks and planes by August to sandbag his haemorrhaging defences. But contradictorily Zelensky is warned, It’s critical; “make significant gains on the battlefield” now – as it is the Administration’s “very strong view” that it will be harder thereafter, to obtain Congressional support (i.e. August is past time; it will be too late).

Clearly the U.S. is preparing the ground for a Spring ‘Victory Announcement’ – as Milley’s delusional comments foreshadow – and a pivot – just a whisker ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election calendar kick-off.

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Between That Rock and The Hard Place, by James Howard Kunstler

If the Europeans figure out that the U.S. is treating them like an enemy, the NATO is toast and we can expect to see a realignment of Europe towards Russia and China. From James Howard Kunstler at kunstler.com:

:…the president has made American support for Ukraine the centerpiece of his argument for a revitalized alliance in Europe, and he had told advisers that he wanted to mark the first anniversary of the invasion as a way of reassuring allies that his administration remains committed….” — The New York Times, Feb 20, 2023

     Secret Agent Man “Joe Biden” turned up in Kiev Monday morning after landing in Poland and riding an overnight choo-choo train across the Ukraine frontier to avoid the hazardous pomp of landing Air Force One in a war zone. One might try to guess the message Victoria Nuland sent her errand boy to deliver. My guess is that “JB” was there to tell Wolodymyr Zelensky the USA stands behind him one hundred percent — an obvious whopper — being exactly the opposite of the developing reality that, short of setting off nuclear Armageddon, there is really nothing the USA can do to prevent Russia from concluding our ill-conceived project on its own terms. Who better to deliver an arrant falsehood than the master, “Scranton Joe,” he who once battled and vanquished the tyrant Corn-Pop!

      Remember, last week Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley, speaking out of the aperture between his butt cheeks, announced that Russia had lost “strategically, operationally and tactically” in Ukraine. This was after NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg announced rather clumsily that Ukraine’s army was out of ammo, especially artillery shells, and the only remedy for that was for Europe to rebuild an armaments industry — which was a sideways-and-backwards way of saying…  fuggeddabowdit.

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SITREP: Update 2/18 – Major War Confirmed Imminent, by Simplicius The Thinker

There are a lot of indications that the Russians are preparing for a major offensive against Ukraine. From Simplicius The Thinker at simplicius76.substack.com:

Calm before the storm.

“Strictly speaking, we haven’t started anything yet.” ~Vladimir Putin, July 2022

Since we’re getting so close to approaching the nail-biting period of February 21 – 24 that so many are anticipating, I figured it’ll be good to compile all the recent, top developments regarding the potential for a new ‘major’ Russian offensive. Some of them have already been mentioned in a previous update, but we’ll cite them again to centralize all relevant materials.

1. First, there are two reputable channels which are now confirming major actions are coming within a week. Romanov Lite, who many of you know, is a Crimean based commentator who also works with some Russian/Donbass units, helping supply them and is often seen on the lines with them, often has insider info as he speaks directly to the troops. He posted this message that it is soon GO TIME:

Note, the specific confirmation of something we predicted here in one of the recent reports, which is that the offensive is likely to kick off, not all at once but in several stages in order to maximize confusion, allow a little lead time for AFU to frantically send reserves to one direction to caulk the flow, only for a completely different direction to massively kick off into un-reinforced territory.

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On Ukraine, is Biden signaling that ‘as long as it takes’ may have an end-date? By Ted Snider

Ukraine is the friend you help out financially . . . then keep helping out far beyond what you intended. From Ted Snider at responsiblestatecraft.org:

There seems to be a lot of talk today about scaling back territorial expectations, and moves toward the negotiating table.

In his State of the Union Addresson February 7, President Biden once again promised Ukraine that “America . . . will stand with you as long as it takes.”

But, privately, one year into the war, the Biden administration appears to be telling Ukraine that “as long as it takes” may be running out.

One week after the State of the Union, The Washington Post quoted a senior administration official as saying that “we will continue to try to impress upon them that we can’t do anything and everything forever.”

The senior official said “continue” because in January CIA Director William Burns met secretly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and told him, according to a Washington Post account,  that “at some point assistance would be harder to come by.” People familiar with the meeting said Zelensky walked away from the meeting with the impression that he could rely on U.S. assistance through the summer but that he was “less certain about the prospects of Congress passing another multibillion-dollar supplemental assistance package as it did last spring.”

That timeline was reinforced by the Post’s reporting that “Biden and his top aides . . . warn that the political path will get tougher once Ukraine has exhausted the current congressional package, which could happen as early as this summer.”

The senior official redefined the Biden promise, saying “As long as it takes’ pertains to the amount of conflict. It doesn’t pertain to the amount of assistance.” 

The timeline suggests the urgency of the moment. The Post reports that “The critical nature of the next few months has already been conveyed to Kyiv in blunt terms by top Biden officials — including Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer, deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman and Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl, all of whom visited Ukraine last month.” The “coming months” will be critical for “Ukraine to retake as much territory as possible . . . before sitting down with Putin at the negotiating table.”

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Gaming America’s Next Big War, by Byron King and Joel Bowman

Choosing to defend Taiwan could be disastrous for the U.S., and even if the defense was successful, it would be costly. From Byron King and Joel Bowman at bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com:

Who wins and who loses in a battle in the South China Sea?

(Source: Getty Images)

“When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will.” 

~ Frederic Bastiat (attributed)

Joel Bowman, appraising the situation from Buenos Aires, Argentina…

Welcome to another Sunday Session, dear reader, that time of the week when we gather around the campfire, rustle up a few tall tales and give thanks that we made it through another seven days without our trigger-happy, power-drunk overlords nuking our precious blue orb into oblivion…

On that cheery note, we have a special treat in store for you today. We recently caught up with Harvard-trained geologist, energy and resource expert, keen geopolitical observer and all-round man of letters, Mr. Byron King. 

Your weekend correspondent first met Byron almost two decades ago, when we worked together (with Bill Bonner) during the old Daily Reckoning days. Byron invited us up to Titusville, PA. the birthplace of the American oil industry, where Colonel Edwin Drake sank the nation’s first commercially viable well way back in the 1850s. We spent the day talking to local historians and even dynamite fracking a well. (Fire in the hole!) 

Fast forward to 2021 and Byron kindly agreed to lend his insights during our first ever Winter Catastrophe event for Bonner Private Research. He and fellow natural resource expert, Rick Rule, alerted early members to what they saw as a coming energy supply crunch, owing in no small part to western governments commitment to burdensome regulation and even outright hostility to conventional energy, such as Colonel Drake had brought to the market. 

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Ukraine SitRep – Casualty Numbers, Lack Of Tanks, Something Is Up, by Moon of Alabama

Preparations for the long-rumored Russian offensive? From Moon of Alabama at moonofalabama.org:

There is some interesting news on the casualty count in the war in Ukraine.

Ivan Katchanovski translated bits from a Russian language BBC report:

“Based on open sources, the BBC managed to establish the names of 14,709 Russian soldiers who died in the war in Ukraine. Throughout 2022, Russian sources typically reported about 250-300 dead each week. In January, these figures doubled.” #Russia 1/

“But in just two weeks in February, the BBC Russian Service, together with Mediazona (recognized as a “foreign agent” in Russia) and a team of volunteers, managed to confirm the names of 1,679 dead, which is five times more than the usual weekly numbers.” #Ukraine #ukrainewar 2/

The war started in eighths week of 2022. There were thus 44 weeks in the rest of the year. With 300 dead per week the number of Russians killed until the end of 2022 was 13,200. (These numbers likely included the number of Wagner mercenaries killed but probably not those of the Donbas militia.)

The BBC then counts 2,400 killed in January and 1,700 in February.

The total is thus below 20,000 the number Col. MacGregor and others have estimated for the Russian side. The BBC says it estimates that it only catches half of the dead but gives no sound reason why that would be the case.

The daily losses on the Ukrainian side are much higher. The daily clobber list of the Russian Ministry of Defense mentions about 400 Ukrainians killed every day. This is consistent with the numbers Ukraine’s government mentioned last summer and fall.

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Imagine If China Did To The US What The US Is Doing To China, by Caitlin Johnstone

China keeps putting its country next to U.S. military bases. From Caitlin Johnstone at caitlinjohnstone.com:

This past Thursday US Senator Josh Hawley gave a speech at the Heritage Foundation — a warmongering think tank with immense influence in the DC swamp — that is a perfect representation of a couple of interesting dynamics occurring in US foreign policy thought today.

The Trump-endorsed Hawley is a perfect example of the faux-populism in the “MAGA” branch of the Republican Party: a rich Ivy League alum who makes a big display of standing up to the elites on behalf of the little guy, while consistently advancing the longstanding agendas of western oligarchs, DC neocons, and secretive US government agencies.

Hawley’s latest performance of pretending to fight the Deep State while directly assisting the Deep State appears in his speech titled “China and Ukraine: A Time for Truth,” wherein he denounces the “endless proxy war in Ukraine,” the “Uniparty” of “neoconservatives on the right and liberal globalists on the left,” and the way US wars in the Middle East cost “billions of dollars there and lost hundreds of American lives” (a massive understatement on both counts).

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