Category Archives: Military

Glenn Diesen: One Year On… Why the Ukraine War Spells Doom For U.S. Hegemony and the NATO Alliance, by Finian Cunningham

The war hasn’t met the military or economic expectations of the U.S. and its proxy Ukraine. From Finian Cunningham at strategic-culture.org:

Russia is not backing down, but it can’t be said for the U.S. and its allies who are increasingly looking at a weakened geopolitical position.

After one year of war in Ukraine, Russia has not collapsed in the dramatic way that the United States and its European NATO allies were confidently predicting.

U.S. President Joe Biden in visits to Ukraine and Poland this week hailed the “unity” of NATO and the transatlantic alliance.

The reality is the Western transatlantic alliance is showing signs of fragmenting because of the immense strain on Europe’s economy due to European governments following Washington’s hostile policy towards Russia.

Street protests across Europe are growing against NATO and governing elites seen to be servile to American policy. This is not just about the war in Ukraine. The whole Western capitalist order is shaking at its foundation, largely because of American hegemonic ambitions. The Ukraine war is merely a manifestation of underlying geopolitics.

Contrary to Western great expectations, the Russian economy is holding up strongly and its military operations in Ukraine seem to be gaining the upper hand. This is in spite of the U.S.-led NATO bloc “throwing everything they can” at Russia to defeat it, from endless supplies of weaponry to support the Kiev regime, to endless rounds of economic sanctions in an attempt to collapse the Russian economy.

Glenn Diesen is a Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway. He is an expert in international politics and Russian foreign relations.

Diesen explains that Russia has long been preparing for confrontation with the United States and its European allies. Ever since the U.S.-backed coup in Kiev in 2014 and the Western betrayal of the 2014 and 2015 Minsk peace agreements, Moscow quietly realized that it would have to reinforce its economy to withstand the anticipated Western showdown.

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Russia Has No Strategy for Winning This War, by Rolo Slavskiy

It may be a very long war. From Rolo Slavskiy at unz.com:

If you look at and analyze the Not-War on the strategic level, well, you can’t help but come to the conclusions and talking points presented by the pessimists. If you’re honest, that is.

But the narrative has now shifted and the discussion is being framed on the tactical level. That is, the events around Bakhmut are what the Russian news and the commentators are talking about now. But the action around Bakhmut is a tactical one. There are three levels to military operations, at least in the Russian school.

Tactical

Operational

Strategic

And if you were hoping for a quick conclusion to the Bakhmut offensive, well. I’ve got more bad, but totally predictable, news for you.

URA:

The founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin denied the information about the encirclement of 1.5 thousand Ukrainian soldiers near Bakhmut (Artemovsk). His comment is published by Prigozhin’s press service in the official telegram channel. He noted that the Ukrainians are putting up strong resistance and Bakhmut (Artemovsk) will not be taken in the near future.

“In all directions, the enemy is becoming more active, pulling up more and more new reserves. Every day, from 300 to 500 new fighters approach Bakhmut in all directions. Artillery fire intensifies every day,” said Yevgeny Prigozhin. He drew attention to the inappropriateness of positive promises that will not come true in the near future.

At the moment, fierce battles are being fought near Bakhmut (Artemovsk). Serious losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Bakhmut were reported by the American media, 360 TV channel reports . Yevgeny Prigozhin said that the capture of Bakhmut would be the key to Russia’s victory in the Ukrainian conflict, the National News Service reports . Acting head of the DPR Denis Pushilin said that the Russian military surrounded 1.5 thousand Ukrainian soldiers near Bakhmut .

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How the Powerful Captured the Public in a Pandemic, by Dr. Joseph Mercola

They’re putty in the hands of the powerful once they’re afraid. From Dr. Joseph Mercola at theburningplatform.com:

Video Link

Story at-a-glance

  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks the truth about the authoritarian pandemic response that continues to threaten democracy and liberty as we know it
  • In an interview with journalist Kim Iversen, Kennedy explains how the military industrial complex uses mind control techniques and fear to exert control over the population
  • Fear is the enemy, as it allows totalitarian systems to take control of people, destroying democracy in the process
  • While democracy is resilient, we now have the technology available to control human behavior at a large scale
  • Democracy is dependent on the free flow of information, while censorship leads to totalitarianism

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks the truth about the authoritarian pandemic response that continues to threaten democracy and liberty as we know it. It’s cost him friendships and 40 years of political contacts, not to mention loss of income and business relationships.

But the threats to his reputation and credibility, as the media have attacked him and his message, don’t feel like a sacrifice, Kennedy says, as he feels called upon to advocate for this issue.

In an interview with journalist Kim Iversen, Kennedy explains, “I look at it as a gift. I was raised in a milieu, in a family, where we assume that our lives would be consumed in some controversy, and that it would be a privilege if we were able to take some meaningful role in that.”1

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Democrats Praise Bush, Want More Small-Business War Profiteers, by Caitlin Johnstone

Nobody has any problem with obscene military budgets, but there’s a strong sentiment that smaller businesses should also get on the gravy train. From Caitlin Johnstone at caitlinjohnstone.com:

Well it’s another big day for Democrats doing Democraty things.

At a Friday event commemorating the 20th anniversary of the President’s Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) hosted by the George W Bush Institute, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi spoke glowingly of the president who instituted the program in 2003 at the same time he was preparing to launch an invasion which would inflict unfathomable horrors upon our world which continue to unfold to this day.

“I’ll just say this honestly, that the Bush family, it’s because of their humanity, their faith, their generosity of spirit, their compassion,” said Pelosi. “Once again, it’s an honor to be associated with President Bush in this.”

Pelosi then pointed to the former president, who was also joined by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and oligarch Bill Gates, with video appearances by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Bono of U2 fame.

Pelosi: “The Bush family it’s because of their humanity, their faith, their generosity of spirit, their compassion. Once again, it’s an honor to be associated with President George W. Bush in this.” pic.twitter.com/NrIqLxc8Ck

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) February 24, 2023

Also on Friday we witnessed what Glenn Greenwald described as the “most Elizabeth Warren tweet ever,” in which the Massachusetts senator took a bold stand against Big War Profiteering to advocate on behalf of the little guy (by which I mean Small War Profiteering).

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NATO Members Float Plan For Negotiations Amid “Growing Doubts” Ukraine Can Retake Territory, by Tyler Durden

The U.S. and NATO are looking for a face saving way out. Good luck with that. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Update(1525ET): NATO has “answered” China’s Ukraine peace proposal unveiled earlier in the day by previewing a peace plan that three major Western allies reportedly have in the works. The plan hinges on Ukraine forging a defense pact with NATO (though stopping short of formal membership), and in return Kyiv would enter talks with Moscow, likely with territorial concessions on the table.

It’s said to be motivated in part by Western leaders having “growing doubts” over Ukraine’s ability to reconquer territory – thus a more ‘realist’ and pragmatic perspective might be taking hold one year into the stalemated conflict. The Wall Street Journal broadly outlines the German, France, UK plan as follows: 

Germany, France and Britain see stronger ties between NATO and Ukraine as a way to encourage Kyiv to start peace talks with Russia later this year, officials from the three governments said, as some of Kyiv’s Western partners have growing doubts over its ability to reconquer all its territory.

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak last week laid out a blueprint for an agreement to give Ukraine much broader access to advanced military equipment, weapons and ammunition to defend itself once the war ends. He said the plan should be on the agenda for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s annual meeting in July.

But if the plan hinges on creating a ‘fortress Ukraine’ through ramped up arms deliveries, including tanks and possibly jets, then it’s unlikely to sit well with Moscow – especially if the plan falls short of making territorial concessions. WSJ continues: 

The officials were careful to say that any decision on when and under what conditions any peace talks start is entirely up to Ukraine. Sunak on Friday said the West should give Ukraine arms that would give it a “decisive advantage” on the battlefield, including warplanes.

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The Geoeconomics of Modern Conflict, by James Rickards

China is probably not going to invade Taiwan, and it is nowhere near the threat it is made out to be. From James Rickards at dailyreckoning.com:

Geopolitics play a major role in the outlook for global economies. But more importantly, today, we must look at the world through the prism of geoeconomics.

What is “geoeconomics”? Obviously, it’s a portmanteau from the words geopolitics and economics. There’s nothing new about considering those disciplines in the same context.

Wars are geopolitical and are often won through industrial capacity, which is primarily economic. Economics and global strategy have always been entwined. What is new is the idea that economics are not just an adjunct of geopolitics, but are now the main event.

This does not mean that warfare is over or that military prowess no longer matters… It means that the major powers in a globalized age will base their calculations on economic gain and loss, and will use economic weapons not as ancillaries, but as primary weapons.

This change was described at the beginning of the new age of globalization by strategic thinker Edward N. Luttwak in a 1990 article titled“From Geopolitics to Geo-Economics: Logic of Conflict, Grammar of Commerce.”

Luttwak wrote that the end of the Cold War and the start of globalization meant that armed conflict was too costly and uncertain for great powers. Economic interests would now be the arena for great power conflict.

Luttwak wrote, “Everyone, it appears, now agrees that the methods of commerce are displacing military methods – with disposable capital in lieu of firepower, civilian innovation in lieu of military-technical advance and market penetration in lieu of garrisons and bases.”

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The World Has Enough Trouble, by James Howard Kunstler

The trouble is created by our rulers and borne by us. From James Howard Kunstler at kunstler.com:

“[This] is what happens when you invent your own reality. You end up bamboozling yourself. — The Sirius Report on Twitter

    If you think about it at all, can you come up with any good reasons why our country has involved itself in the Ukraine war? To defend democracy, many say? An emptier platitude does not exist in the vast slippery lexicon of spin. To thwart Russia’s imperial overreach? You apparently have no clue about Ukraine’s history, ancient or modern. To incite an overthrow of the wicked Putin by his own people? The Russian president is more popular there now than even John F. Kennedy was here in 1962.

     There actually are no good reasons for what we are doing in Ukraine, only bad reasons. Mainly, stoking the war there diverts Americans’ attention from our own problems, which is to say the titanic failures of America’s political establishment. The USA is falling apart from a combination of mismanagement, malice, and negligence. Our economy is a tottering scaffold of Ponzi schemes. Our institutions are wrecked. The government lies about everything it does. The news industry ratifies all the lying. Our schoolchildren can’t read or add up a column of numbers. Our food is slow-acting poison. Our medical-pharma matrix has just completed the systematic murder and maiming of millions. Our culture has been reduced to a drag queen twerk-fest. Our once-beautiful New World landscape is a demolition derby. Name something that hasn’t been debauched, perverted, degenerated, or flat-out destroyed.

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Pentagon Secretly Working To Unleash Massive Swarms of Autonomous Multi-Domain Drones to Dominate Enemy Defenses, from The Debrief

The military will soon have incredible drone and drone swarm technologies. It takes no imagination at all to see how they could be used against the citizens they were nominally meant to protect. From The Debrief at thedebrief.org:

(This Article was updated on February 6, 2023, to include statements from DARPA officials.) 

The U.S. Department of Defense has quietly launched a new program to develop the ability to unleash thousands of autonomous land, sea, and air drones capable of overwhelming and dominating an enemy’s area defenses. 

Details of the project are largely shrouded in secrecy. However, language in recently updated pre-solicitation documents suggests the development of massive autonomous vehicle swarms likely has a specific focus on deterring or defeating a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 

According to documents, the effort will be managed by the Strategic Technology Office of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). 

And while DARPA has yet to formally announce the new program, DARPA confirmed to The Debrief that the project will be operating under the moniker “Autonomous Multi-Domain Adaptive Swarms-of-Swarms” program, or “AMASS.”

“DARPA’s singular and enduring mission is to make pivotal investments in breakthrough technologies for national security,” said a DARPA spokesperson via email.

“The DARPA AMASS program is exploring the use of swarms-of-swarms to conduct military operations in highly contested environments that pose great risk to our Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines. It is meant to inform future military programs of record and not to be a military program of record itself.” 

AMASS is hardly the first, or only, DARPA project currently underway leveraging autonomous drone swarm technology to give the U.S. military an advantage on future battlefields. 

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Is China Considering Supplying Russia With Weapons? By Ted Snider

If the Chinese do supply weapons to Russia, what’s the U.S. going to do about it? From Ted Snider at antiwar.com:

On February 3, following the balloon incident, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceled his trip to China. On February 18, he got a second chance on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. It didn’t go well.

After reprimanding China over the balloons “unacceptable violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law” – for which China offered “no apology” – and warning them that such an “irresponsible act must never again occur,” Blinken “warned” China about the ” consequences if China provides material support to Russia or assistance with systemic sanctions evasion.”

American officials described the meeting between Blinken and Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Yi as “confrontational.”

The day after the meeting, Blinken claimed that the US has “information that gives us concern that [China is] considering providing lethal support to Russia in the war against Ukraine.” He said that China is “strongly considering providing lethal assistance to Russia.”

The US has made similar claims before. In March 2022, US officials claimed that Russia had asked China for military equipment. They provided no details on the request nor on how they knew. That’s because they didn’t know. European and US officials told NBC that that accusation “lacked hard evidence” and that, in fact, “there are no indications China is considering providing weapons to Russia.”

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Who’s Winning and Losing the Economic War Over Ukraine? by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies

For the answer to the question in the title, follow the money. From Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies at antiwar.com:

With the Ukraine war now reaching its one-year mark on February 24, the Russians have not achieved a military victory but neither has the West achieved its goals on the economic front. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States and its European allies vowed to impose crippling sanctions that would bring Russia to its knees and force it to withdraw.

Western sanctions would erect a new Iron Curtain, hundreds of miles to the east of the old one, separating an isolated, defeated, bankrupt Russia from a reunited, triumphant and prosperous West. Not only has Russia withstood the economic assault, but the sanctions have boomeranged–hitting the very countries that imposed them.

Western sanctions on Russia reduced the global supply of oil and natural gas, but also pushed up prices. So Russia profited from the higher prices, even as its export volume decreased. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that Russia’s economy only contracted by 2.2% in 2022, compared with the 8.5% contraction it had forecast, and it predicts that the Russian economy will actually grow by 0.3% in 2023.

On the other hand, Ukraine’s economy has shrunk by 35% or more, despite $46 billion in economic aid from generous U.S. taxpayers, on top of $67 billion in military aid.

European economies are also taking a hit. After growing by 3.5% in 2022, the Euro area economy is expected to stagnate and grow only 0.7% in 2023, while the British economy is projected to actually contract by 0.6%. Germany was more dependent on imported Russian energy than other large European countries so, after growing a meager 1.9% in 2022, it is predicted to have negligible 0.1% growth in 2023. German industry is set to pay about 40% more for energy in 2023 than it did in 2021.

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