Tag Archives: European Central Bank

The “Miracle Recovery” Narrative: We’ll Just Print Our Way to Prosperity, by Claudio Grass

The only thing the still locked-down European economy has going for it is the European Central Bank. From Claudio Grass at mises.org:

Over the last few weeks, we’ve been constantly bombarded by news reports and “expert” analyses celebrating an incredible global economic recovery. They’re not even presented as projections or expectations anymore, but as a fact, as though the return to vibrant growth were already underway. Stock markets certainly seem to agree, going from record high to record high while all the political and institutional leaders congratulate themselves on a job well done.

Although this is largely the consensus in most Western economies, this jubilant, victorious mood feels most bizarre in Europe. Celebrating a recovery during a third round of total lockdowns, closed shops, travel bans, and millions out of work seems like cognitive dissonance at best, or barefaced political hypocrisy at worst. France, Italy, Germany, Austria, they’ve all launched yet another round of business shutdowns and heavily restricted social activities and freedom of movement. And they did that to combat what they labeled a terrible, deadly third wave of infections and hospital overcrowding. In fact, to convince the public of the dire need to go back into lockdown, they painted postapocalyptic visions of a virus-overrun nation and sounded the alarm on the imminent collapse of their public health systems. Under these extreme conditions, these existential threats, closely resembling a state of national emergency, it is really quite challenging to see how the economy might be flourishing.

One could argue that the trillions that were printed by the ECB and helicopter dropped on member states actually achieved their aim and successfully rescued and restarted the economy. However, it is still hard to fathom how injecting any amount of cash into a forcibly frozen economy can restart economic activity and jump-start productivity, given that it’s still largely illegal to be economically active and productive. In other words, you can pump as much fuel as you like into your car, but if the engine is dead, you probably won’t go very far.

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ECB Blows €400bn on “Brexit Black Friday” for Bank Bailouts, by Wolf Richter

Here’s a story that, if true (and Wolf Richter is generally very careful about what he posts), deserves a lot more attention than it’s getting. Brexit may have served as the excuse for a huge back-door bailout of European banks by the European Central Bank. From Richter at wolfstreet.com:

Dealing with a Financial Crisis under cover of Brexit Chaos

Remember TARP, the Troubled Asset Relief Program that the US Congress approved to bail out banks and other companies during the Financial Crisis? $700 billion were authorized, later reduced to $475 billion. The Treasury eventually dispersed $432 billion. I bring this up because the ECB bailed out the European banks with more than TARP, in just one day: on Brexit Black Friday.

The ECB saw what was happening to the shares of the largest banks on that propitious day. It saw a blooming financial crisis:

Top UK Banks:

HSBC, the apparent winner in this fiasco, perhaps because of its exposure to Asia, -1.4%
Barclays: -17.7%
Royal Bank of Scotland: -18.0%
Lloyds Banking Group: -21.0%

Top German Banks:

Deutsche Bank: -15.9% to €13.25, down 59% from April last year, possibly on the way to zero.
Commerzbank: -13.6%, to €6.20. The German government still owns nearly 16% of it as a result of the bailout during the Financial Crisis.
The third-largest German bank, KfW, is a state-owned institution, so taxpayers are automatically on the hook.

Top French banks:

BNP Parisbas: -17.4%
Credit Agricole: -14% (down 43% since last July).
Societe Generale: -20.6%. It apparently needs to find another low-level “rogue trader” to blame.

The fiasco that happened to the Spanish and Italian banks was so enormous that it sent stock markets into their largest one-day plunges on record, of over 12% [ Brexit Blowback Hits Italian and Spanish Banks].

The Stoxx 600 banking index, which covers the largest European banks, plunged 14.5% on Friday. It’s down 29.3% year-to-date, 42% from its 52-week high, and 76% from its all-time high in May 2007 before the Financial Crisis and the euro debt crisis knocked the hot air out of the banks.

But to keep panic at bay, Brexit and the resulting political crisis are used to cover up the blooming financial crisis.

And what a political crisis it is, not just for the UK, but for the EU. No one knows how this will end up. Businesses need certainty. They need to know what money they’re going to use next year, and what the trade and legal frameworks will be. They like to take those things for granted. But now, in the EU, no one can take anything for granted anymore.

Companies with cross-border operations – this includes all major banks and brokerages – have gigantic headaches, and the UK’s 2.2 million financial-sector employees are fidgeting on the edge of their chairs. It might take a couple of years for the UK to actually exit the EU, if it even happens at all, so there’s a little breathing room.

But where there’s apparently no longer any breathing room is with banks, and the ECB went into panic mode.

With bank stocks collapsing on Brexit Black Friday, the frazzled folks at the ECB decided it was high time to start bailing out the banks – and not dabble at the margins, but pull out the whatever-it-takes money-printing machine, and do so under the cover of Brexit chaos when no one was supposed to pay attention.

On Friday, the ECB pulled a huge magic trick, larger than TARP. Under one of its alphabet-soup programs – long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) – it handed teetering banks $399.3 billion, or $444 billion.

To continue reading: ECB Blows €400bn on “Brexit Black Friday” for Bank Bailouts

Italian Banks Hammered; Bad Loans Hit €201 Billion; End of Draghi PUT; Get Out Now! by Mike Mish Shedlock

From Mike Mish Shedlock at davidstockmanscontracorner.com:

Italian Banks Hammered

Things don’t matter until they do. For whatever reason, things in Europe are starting to matter. For example, Bloomberg reports Italian Banks Lead European Decliners on Bad-Loan Concerns.

Italian banks dropped in Milan, leading declines in the European Stoxx 600 Banks Index, reflecting investor concerns about lenders’ levels of bad debt as the European Central Bank seeks to toughen scrutiny of the region’s non-performing loans.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, bailed out twice since 2009, slumped 15 percent to 76.6 cents in Milan, a fresh record low. Unione di Banche Italiane SpA fell 7.3 percent, while Banco Popolare SC declined 6.7 percent. Europe’s 46-member Stoxx 600 Banks Index decreased 1.9 percent to the lowest since November 2012, bringing losses this year to 15 percent.

Italian banks’ bad loans reached a record high of 201 billion euros ($219 billion) in November, with record-low interest rates and a struggling economy squeezing profit margins. The ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism is seeking additional information about lenders’ non-performing loans in order to tackle bad debt across the region, a spokesman said, confirming a Sunday report by Reuters.

“A task force on non-performing loans is reviewing the situation of institutions with high levels of NPLs and will propose follow-up actions,” the central bank said.

In Italy, the government has been struggling to win approval for a bad bank to help speed up disposals of soured loans. Tensions between the country and the European Commission mounted earlier this month when Juncker publicly questioned Renzi’s criticism over an alleged lack of flexibility.

Italian market regulator Consob imposed a ban on short selling of Monte dei Paschi’s stock for the remainder of Monday’s session through Jan. 19, in an attempt to stabilize shares of the world’s oldest bank, which have dropped about 34 percent this year.

Subordinated and senior bonds in troubled banks including Monte dei Paschi, Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca have slumped to record lows this month. Monte Paschi’s 379 million euros of 5.6 percent junior notes fell more than 10 cents to 71.7 cents on Monday, surpassing the previous record low of November 2011.

To continue reading: Italian Banks Hammered

He Said That? 11/18/14

From European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Yves Mersch, in a speech in Frankfurt:

I’m not so sure it [Japanese Central Bank purchases of assets] has worked, considering that this morning we saw that Japan has officially slid into recession again.

 

Two things about this statement should give anyone with a grasp of rational economics pause. First, Mr. Mersch is not sure that JCB asset purchases have worked. How can anyone not be sure? The Japanese have gone all in on such purchases, recently announcing yet another increase, and the economy just entered its umpteenth recession. The policy has been a complete failure (see “The Economics of Debt, Deterioration, Deflation, Depression, and Disorder,” 11/17/14, SLL Blog). The other disconcerting note: in the same speech, Mr. Mersch pondered the possibility of an escalation in ECB purchases of all manner of assets.

Theoretically the ECB could purchase other assets such as gold, shares, ETFs to fulfill its promise of adopting further unconventional measures to counter a longer period of low inflation.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-17/ecb-says-may-buy-gold-stocks-next

If at first you don’t succeed, up the ante and fail, fail again, but never admit that it was a bad idea to begin with.