If the ground freezes solid so that Russia can move its tanks and artillery, the war could be over by the end of 2023. From Moon of Alabama at moonofalabama.org:

Over Christmas I had a short talk with a relative about the war in Ukraine. He asked me who would win and was astonished when I said: “Ukraine has zero chance to win.” That person reads some German mainstream news sites and watches the public TV networks. With those sources of ‘information’ he was made to believe that Ukraine was winning the war.

One may excuse that with him never having been in a military and not being politically engaged. But still there are some basic numbers that let one conclude from the beginning that Russia, the much bigger, richer and more industrialized country, had clearly all advantages. My relative  obviously never had had that thought.

The ‘western’ propaganda is still quite strong. However, as I pointed out in March last year propaganda does not change a war and lies do not win it. Its believability is shrinking.

Former Lt.Col. Alex Vershinin, who in June pointed out that industrial warfare is back and the ‘West’ was not ready to wage it, has a new recommendable piece out which analyses the tactics on both sides, looks ahead and concludes that Russia will almost certainly win the war:

Wars of attrition are won through careful husbandry of one’s own resources while destroying the enemy’s. Russia entered the war with vast materiel superiority and a greater industrial base to sustain and replace losses. They have carefully preserved their resources, withdrawing every time the tactical situation turned against them. Ukraine started the war with a smaller resource pool and relied on the Western coalition to sustain its war effort. This dependency pressured Ukraine into a series of tactically successful offensives, which consumed strategic resources that Ukraine will struggle to replace in full, in my view. The real question isn’t whether Ukraine can regain all its territory, but whether it can inflict sufficient losses on Russian mobilized reservists to undermine Russia’s domestic unity, forcing it to the negotiation table on Ukrainian terms, or will Russian’ attrition strategy work to annex an even larger portion of Ukraine.

Russian domestic unity has only grown over the war. As Gilbert Doctorow points out wars make nations. The war does not only unite certain nationalistic parts of Ukraine who still dream of retaking Crimea. It also unites all of Russia. Unlike Ukraine Russia will be strengthened by it.

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Ukraine is losing, but the U.S.’s European vassals may end up as the biggest losers. From Karen Kwiatkowski at lewrockwell.com:

Eleven months after the Russians acted to provide a military protection force for Russians living in western Ukraine, or alternatively, 11 and a half months after Kiev and Zelensky stepped up attacks on their “own people” in the Donbass, presumably for their own good, what have we learned?

People of the world have gained new perspectives on things like gross US and NATO hypocrisy, the ability of politicians and diplomats to lie to your face, and in writing, and the ability of any number of countries exist and persist despite their ostensibly and possibly corruptly elected leadership being infirm, decrepit, insane, criminal and/or widely known for playing pianos with their dicks.

Life goes on – money gets made – people vote with their feet – and politicians hold their index fingers in the air to determine what next.

The WEF elite meets in Davos this month.  Many of the topics revolve around how to rebuild Ukraine, and all the “right” investors will reserve their tickets on that 2023 gravy train.  If 2022 was a profitable US/NATO/EU/UK military and logistics laundry and boondoggle in Ukraine, 2023 is looking to be an even bigger operation.  Quadrillions will be spent – as time runs out on the dollar and dollar-pegged currencies.

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