Tag Archives: Ukraine-Russia War

Is China Considering Supplying Russia With Weapons? By Ted Snider

Posted on February 22, 2023 | Leave a comment

If the Chinese do supply weapons to Russia, what’s the U.S. going to do about it? From Ted Snider at antiwar.com:

On February 3, following the balloon incident, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceled his trip to China. On February 18, he got a second chance on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. It didn’t go well.

After reprimanding China over the balloons “unacceptable violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law” – for which China offered “no apology” – and warning them that such an “irresponsible act must never again occur,” Blinken “warned” China about the ” consequences if China provides material support to Russia or assistance with systemic sanctions evasion.”

American officials described the meeting between Blinken and Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Yi as “confrontational.”

The day after the meeting, Blinken claimed that the US has “information that gives us concern that [China is] considering providing lethal support to Russia in the war against Ukraine.” He said that China is “strongly considering providing lethal assistance to Russia.”

The US has made similar claims before. In March 2022, US officials claimed that Russia had asked China for military equipment. They provided no details on the request nor on how they knew. That’s because they didn’t know. European and US officials told NBC that that accusation “lacked hard evidence” and that, in fact, “there are no indications China is considering providing weapons to Russia.”

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Who’s Winning and Losing the Economic War Over Ukraine? by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies

Posted on February 22, 2023 | Leave a comment

For the answer to the question in the title, follow the money. From Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies at antiwar.com:

With the Ukraine war now reaching its one-year mark on February 24, the Russians have not achieved a military victory but neither has the West achieved its goals on the economic front. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States and its European allies vowed to impose crippling sanctions that would bring Russia to its knees and force it to withdraw.

Western sanctions would erect a new Iron Curtain, hundreds of miles to the east of the old one, separating an isolated, defeated, bankrupt Russia from a reunited, triumphant and prosperous West. Not only has Russia withstood the economic assault, but the sanctions have boomeranged–hitting the very countries that imposed them.

Western sanctions on Russia reduced the global supply of oil and natural gas, but also pushed up prices. So Russia profited from the higher prices, even as its export volume decreased. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that Russia’s economy only contracted by 2.2% in 2022, compared with the 8.5% contraction it had forecast, and it predicts that the Russian economy will actually grow by 0.3% in 2023.

On the other hand, Ukraine’s economy has shrunk by 35% or more, despite $46 billion in economic aid from generous U.S. taxpayers, on top of $67 billion in military aid.

European economies are also taking a hit. After growing by 3.5% in 2022, the Euro area economy is expected to stagnate and grow only 0.7% in 2023, while the British economy is projected to actually contract by 0.6%. Germany was more dependent on imported Russian energy than other large European countries so, after growing a meager 1.9% in 2022, it is predicted to have negligible 0.1% growth in 2023. German industry is set to pay about 40% more for energy in 2023 than it did in 2021.

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They Wouldn’t Really Go Nuclear, Would They? By Jeff Thomas

Posted on February 21, 2023 | 1 comment

They might. From Jeff Thomas at internationalman.com:

limited nuclear war

In 2014, the US funded a coup d’état in Ukraine, ejecting the democratically elected president and installing an American puppet. The new regime then set about attacking the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, which were predominantly Russian. Russia did not intervene, even though the US was messing in Russia’s “back yard.” It did, however, draw some “red lines,” warning the Ukrainian government in Kiev that if it tried to take Crimea, join NATO, or become a nuclear state, Russia would invade.

In February 2022, Ukrainian puppet-President Zelensky announced at the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine would go nuclear. That was the trigger that caused Russia to invade Ukraine, days later. The US declared outrage and sought to involve NATO in retaliation. The American media was filled with angry reports of the “unprovoked invasion,” stating that Russia’s goal was to seize all of Europe.

Since that time, the US media have maintained a constant barrage of propaganda regarding the war. The theme is always the same: The Russians are a murderous army, killing civilians and bombing hospitals and schools. But they are also incompetent, poorly led, their troops riddled with deserters, losing battle after battle, and experiencing far more casualties than the Ukrainians.

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Joe Biden is making Europe great again – for the US, by Rachel Marsden

Posted on February 21, 2023 | Leave a comment

Europe has turned itself into an American doormat. Wonder how long that will last. From Rachel Marsden at azerbaycan24.com:–

President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol, Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2023, in Washington, as Vice President Kamala Harris and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of Calif., applaud. ©  Jacquelyn Martin, Pool

The American president’s annual address celebrated ‘saving’ Europe from the last remnants of independence Rachel Marsden is a columnist, political strategist, and host of independently produced talk-shows in French and English.Rachel Marsden is a columnist, political strategist, and host of independently produced talk-shows in French and English.rachelmarsden.comPresident Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol, Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2023, in Washington, as Vice President Kamala Harris and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of Calif., applaud. © Jacquelyn Martin, Pool

In his State of the Union address earlier this month, US President Joe Biden referenced Europe several times, and the underlying message was always the same: Captain America has swooped in to save his Western allies from a horrible fate.

“Our nation is working for more freedom, more dignity, and more peace, not just in Europe, but everywhere,” Biden said. Woah, slow your roll there, big guy. The world can only handle so much “freedom” after recent debacles in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and elsewhere. Europe was actually a pretty chill place as far as conflicts went, right up until Washington decided that it wanted to set up a flophouse for itself in Ukraine to better keep tabs on Russia, then managing to convince its European NATO allies to come help it move in and provide some weapons as housewarming gifts.

The result for Ukraine? “A murderous assault evoking images of the death and destruction Europe suffered in World War II,” Biden described, conveniently ignoring the fact that this time around, it was Washington’s NATO allies that trained the Nazis. “Canada’s Joint Task Force Ukraine even produced a briefing on the Azov Battalion, acknowledging its links to Nazi ideology,” according to the Ottawa Citizen.

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Recognizing The War Is Lost The ‘West’ Seeks An Exit, by Moon of Alabama

Posted on February 21, 2023 | Leave a comment

Good luck, Biden administration, trying to devise an exit that’s even within field goal range of being face saving. From Moon of Alabama at moonofalabama.org:

U.S. President Joe Biden is in Kiev today to rescue his lunatic project of destroying Russia by proxy war. But there is no good way to do that.

A review of ‘western’ media shows that the inevitable outcome of the war is now recognized. The only still open alternatives are to risk a large nuclear war or to retreat from ‘western’ dreams of its permanent hegemony.

Few ‘western’ officials will admit that the war is lost, that  Russia has won in Ukraine. But it has. It had won the war when it successfully trapped the Ukrainian army into a war of attrition.

A the Russian commentator Sacha Rogers writes (in Russian, machine translation):

This war has already been won (moreover, what is most offensive for various “unrecognized geniuses”, without their participation and contrary to their foolish ideas of how it should be won). It was won at the moment when, instead of a highly maneuverable war, our General Staff imposed a positional “standing” with an attrition war on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Strictly by the textbook: Attrition warfare is a military strategy consisting of belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material.

Ukraine has already lost two armies and it is begging for a third one. But the ‘West’ is unable to deliver it:

Less than a quarter of the modern battle tanks the West has promised to Ukraine are likely to arrive in time to counter an anticipated Russian spring offensive.

Kyiv is expecting its supporters to send up to 320 western tanks in total but estimates suggest barely 50 will reach the front lines by the start of April, prompting concerns they will not be enough to have a substantial impact on the fighting.

The recognition that the Ukraine has lost the war is creating a panic in those quarters that are committed to ‘western’ uni-polarity.

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An Unexpected Insight (for the Élite): The U.S. May Be the Biggest Loser in the War on Russia, by Alasdair Crooke

Posted on February 20, 2023 | 1 comment

The only other candidate for biggest loser will be Ukraine. From Alasdair Crooke at strategic-culture.org:

Where does Europe go in the wake of the Nord Stream allegations? It is hard to see a Germany-dominated Europe diverging far from Washington.

“NATO has never been stronger; Russia is a global Pariah; and the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience; in short, Russia has lost, Russia has lost strategically, operationally and tactically – and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield”.

He, (General Mark Milley, U.S. Chief of Defence Staff) doesn’t believe a word of that. We know that he doesn’t believe it because, two months ago, he said the exact opposite – until he was chastised by the White House for straying off the Joe Biden message. Now he is back, playing on ‘Team’.

Zelensky likely also doesn’t believe the word of the recent European promise of tanks and aircraft – and he knows it to be mostly a chimera. But he plays on Team. A few extra tanks will make no difference on the ground, and his fifth mobilisation is being resisted at home. The European militaries are waiting-out this episode, their armouries running on ‘reserve tank’.

Zelensky repeatedly says he must have tanks and planes by August to sandbag his haemorrhaging defences. But contradictorily Zelensky is warned, It’s critical; “make significant gains on the battlefield” now – as it is the Administration’s “very strong view” that it will be harder thereafter, to obtain Congressional support (i.e. August is past time; it will be too late).

Clearly the U.S. is preparing the ground for a Spring ‘Victory Announcement’ – as Milley’s delusional comments foreshadow – and a pivot – just a whisker ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election calendar kick-off.

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Between That Rock and The Hard Place, by James Howard Kunstler

Posted on February 20, 2023 | Leave a comment

If the Europeans figure out that the U.S. is treating them like an enemy, the NATO is toast and we can expect to see a realignment of Europe towards Russia and China. From James Howard Kunstler at kunstler.com:

:…the president has made American support for Ukraine the centerpiece of his argument for a revitalized alliance in Europe, and he had told advisers that he wanted to mark the first anniversary of the invasion as a way of reassuring allies that his administration remains committed….” — The New York Times, Feb 20, 2023

     Secret Agent Man “Joe Biden” turned up in Kiev Monday morning after landing in Poland and riding an overnight choo-choo train across the Ukraine frontier to avoid the hazardous pomp of landing Air Force One in a war zone. One might try to guess the message Victoria Nuland sent her errand boy to deliver. My guess is that “JB” was there to tell Wolodymyr Zelensky the USA stands behind him one hundred percent — an obvious whopper — being exactly the opposite of the developing reality that, short of setting off nuclear Armageddon, there is really nothing the USA can do to prevent Russia from concluding our ill-conceived project on its own terms. Who better to deliver an arrant falsehood than the master, “Scranton Joe,” he who once battled and vanquished the tyrant Corn-Pop!

      Remember, last week Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley, speaking out of the aperture between his butt cheeks, announced that Russia had lost “strategically, operationally and tactically” in Ukraine. This was after NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg announced rather clumsily that Ukraine’s army was out of ammo, especially artillery shells, and the only remedy for that was for Europe to rebuild an armaments industry — which was a sideways-and-backwards way of saying…  fuggeddabowdit.

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SITREP: Update 2/18 – Major War Confirmed Imminent, by Simplicius The Thinker

Posted on February 20, 2023 | Leave a comment

There are a lot of indications that the Russians are preparing for a major offensive against Ukraine. From Simplicius The Thinker at simplicius76.substack.com:

Calm before the storm.

“Strictly speaking, we haven’t started anything yet.” ~Vladimir Putin, July 2022

Since we’re getting so close to approaching the nail-biting period of February 21 – 24 that so many are anticipating, I figured it’ll be good to compile all the recent, top developments regarding the potential for a new ‘major’ Russian offensive. Some of them have already been mentioned in a previous update, but we’ll cite them again to centralize all relevant materials.

1. First, there are two reputable channels which are now confirming major actions are coming within a week. Romanov Lite, who many of you know, is a Crimean based commentator who also works with some Russian/Donbass units, helping supply them and is often seen on the lines with them, often has insider info as he speaks directly to the troops. He posted this message that it is soon GO TIME:

Note, the specific confirmation of something we predicted here in one of the recent reports, which is that the offensive is likely to kick off, not all at once but in several stages in order to maximize confusion, allow a little lead time for AFU to frantically send reserves to one direction to caulk the flow, only for a completely different direction to massively kick off into un-reinforced territory.

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On Ukraine, is Biden signaling that ‘as long as it takes’ may have an end-date? By Ted Snider

Posted on February 20, 2023 | Leave a comment

Ukraine is the friend you help out financially . . . then keep helping out far beyond what you intended. From Ted Snider at responsiblestatecraft.org:

There seems to be a lot of talk today about scaling back territorial expectations, and moves toward the negotiating table.

In his State of the Union Addresson February 7, President Biden once again promised Ukraine that “America . . . will stand with you as long as it takes.”

But, privately, one year into the war, the Biden administration appears to be telling Ukraine that “as long as it takes” may be running out.

One week after the State of the Union, The Washington Post quoted a senior administration official as saying that “we will continue to try to impress upon them that we can’t do anything and everything forever.”

The senior official said “continue” because in January CIA Director William Burns met secretly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and told him, according to a Washington Post account,  that “at some point assistance would be harder to come by.” People familiar with the meeting said Zelensky walked away from the meeting with the impression that he could rely on U.S. assistance through the summer but that he was “less certain about the prospects of Congress passing another multibillion-dollar supplemental assistance package as it did last spring.”

That timeline was reinforced by the Post’s reporting that “Biden and his top aides . . . warn that the political path will get tougher once Ukraine has exhausted the current congressional package, which could happen as early as this summer.”

The senior official redefined the Biden promise, saying “As long as it takes’ pertains to the amount of conflict. It doesn’t pertain to the amount of assistance.” 

The timeline suggests the urgency of the moment. The Post reports that “The critical nature of the next few months has already been conveyed to Kyiv in blunt terms by top Biden officials — including Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer, deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman and Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl, all of whom visited Ukraine last month.” The “coming months” will be critical for “Ukraine to retake as much territory as possible . . . before sitting down with Putin at the negotiating table.”

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Ukraine SitRep – Casualty Numbers, Lack Of Tanks, Something Is Up, by Moon of Alabama

Posted on February 19, 2023 | Leave a comment

Preparations for the long-rumored Russian offensive? From Moon of Alabama at moonofalabama.org:

There is some interesting news on the casualty count in the war in Ukraine.

Ivan Katchanovski translated bits from a Russian language BBC report:

“Based on open sources, the BBC managed to establish the names of 14,709 Russian soldiers who died in the war in Ukraine. Throughout 2022, Russian sources typically reported about 250-300 dead each week. In January, these figures doubled.” #Russia 1/

“But in just two weeks in February, the BBC Russian Service, together with Mediazona (recognized as a “foreign agent” in Russia) and a team of volunteers, managed to confirm the names of 1,679 dead, which is five times more than the usual weekly numbers.” #Ukraine #ukrainewar 2/

The war started in eighths week of 2022. There were thus 44 weeks in the rest of the year. With 300 dead per week the number of Russians killed until the end of 2022 was 13,200. (These numbers likely included the number of Wagner mercenaries killed but probably not those of the Donbas militia.)

The BBC then counts 2,400 killed in January and 1,700 in February.

The total is thus below 20,000 the number Col. MacGregor and others have estimated for the Russian side. The BBC says it estimates that it only catches half of the dead but gives no sound reason why that would be the case.

The daily losses on the Ukrainian side are much higher. The daily clobber list of the Russian Ministry of Defense mentions about 400 Ukrainians killed every day. This is consistent with the numbers Ukraine’s government mentioned last summer and fall.

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