The Northman Trader has many reasons not to be bullish on the stock market. From the Northman Trader at northmantrader.com:
A bull market requiem:
Following the financial crisis the world needed coordinated structural solutions (and those would be hard requiring tough choices). Instead what the world got was coordinated central bank intervention which shrunk the middle class, made the rich richer and provided the rest with the illusion that things were getting better as pro forma unemployment rates shrunk and housing prices rose again and stock markets jumped from record to record. In the meantime politicians (of both parties) used the easy money illusion to do precisely nothing on the structural front. Instead they added debt and more debt and recent tax cuts just added to the combination of both: Wealth inequality and debt.
The data is very clear. Things are better for the few:
The greatest bull market ever (?) and 90% of income earners have less net worth than before the financial crisis? Given what it took on the intervention and debt fronts this is intellectual bankruptcy. Policy makers have failed the larger population. Full stop.
Income growth? Forget it:
Debt? A disaster zone with no end in sight:
And only getting worse. Much, much worse. Here’s the CBO projecting the coming explosion in debt which doesn’t even presume a coming recession:
This is what policy makers have produced ahead of the next recession:
Unfathomable. Since 2007:
The US government more than doubled the debt ($8.8T to $20.5T) & is now accelerating deficits
The Fed expanded its balance sheet to $4.5T and is now reducing.
And 90% of income earners have less net worth than before.
This is a structural disaster.
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 28, 2018
The construct was ready to fall apart in early 2016. Earnings recession they called it. Bullshit. It was a recession in the making and central bankers knew it and hence we saw the cumulative insanity of over $5 trillion in additional intervention between 2016 and now. People forget: In this short period we witnessed the most aggressive global central bank intervention ever:
To continue reading: Bull Market Requiem