“Nice Narrative” But No: Why One Strategist Thinks Zoltan Pozsar’s “Bretton Woods 3” Is Never Going To Happen, by Michael Every

Breaking with a consensus that has formed very quickly, one analyst doesn’t think a Bretton Woods 3 currency regime (commodity-based) is just around the corner. From Michael Every via zerohedge.com:

Nice narrative: but it’s just ‘mercantilism’

Summary

  • Sanctions on Russia are seen as accelerating a dramatic shift towards a new global commodity-focused ‘Bretton Woods 3’ architecture
  • However, this is actually a very old economic argument: mercantilism
  • History, logic, trade data, and economic geography all show the US can do well in that kind of realpolitik environment
  • By contrast, the opportunity to shift global trade flows away from USD to others is limited: fundamentally, neither CNY nor commodity currencies are set up to rival USD globally
  • The USD will therefore retain its global role despite the ‘Bretton Woods 3’ hype

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