Tag Archives: Reserve Currency

The Most Egregious Mistake, by Alastair Crooke

Without the reserve currency, U.S. power will be greatly diminished and the government will have to come to terms with a multipolar world. From Alastair Crooke at strategic-culture.org:

The U.S. government is hostage to its financial hegemony in a way that is rarely fully understood.

It is the miscalculation of this era – one that may begin the collapse of dollar primacy, and therefore, global compliance with U.S. political demands, too. But its most grievous content is that it corners the U.S. into promoting dangerous Ukrainian escalation against Russia directly (i.e. Crimea).

Washington dares not – indeed cannot – yield on dollar primacy, the ultimate signifier for ‘American decline’. And so the U.S. government is hostage to its financial hegemony in a way that is rarely fully understood.

The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.

What then is this ‘Great Surprise’ – the almost completely unforeseen event of recent geo-politics that has so shaken U.S. expectations, and which takes the world to the precipice?

It is, in a word, Resilience. The Resilience displayed by the Russian economy after the West had committed the entire weight of its financial resources to crushing Russia. The West bore down on Russia in every conceivable way – via financial, cultural and psychological war – and with real military war as the follow-through.

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Dollar Hegemony, Saudi Arabia, Oil, and Ron Paul, by Adam Dick

The world has grown tired of U.S. hegemony and its reserve currency exorbitant privilege. From Adam Dick at ronpaulinstitute.org:

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Interviewed Tuesday at Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan indicated that Saudi Arabia would be open to conducting trade, including involving oil, in various currencies — mentioning in particular the euro and the Saudi riyal — instead of the United States dollar. This is the latest in a series of developments suggesting the Middle East nation and large oil producer is shifting away from supporting US dollar hegemony through trade.

In February of 2006, then US House of Representatives member Ron Paul (R-TX) discussed the history of US dollar hegemony and its looming doom in a House floor speech titled “The End of Dollar Hegemony.” Paul began his speech with his assessment that the dollar dominance, called dollar hegemony more recently and dollar diplomacy in earlier decades of the prior hundred years, “is coming to an end.”

The full history and analysis Paul related in the speech is fascinating. But, there is a particular portion of Paul’s speech that relates to the Saudi finance minister’s comment. This is when Paul focused on the key role the trade of oil has played in supporting dollar hegemony and the related position of the US dollar as the world reserve currency.

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The Petrodollar’s Long Goodbye, by Vijay Prashad

The dollar’s reserve currency status has allowed the U.S. the privilege of paying for goods and service with debt instruments it can create at will. The rest of the world is tired of this unfair arrangement. From Vijay Prashad at consortiumnews.com:

As part of their concern about “currency power,” many countries in the Global South are eager to develop non-dollar trade and investment systems, writes Vijay Prashad.

Xi Jinping and King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Dec. 9. (CCTV/Wikimedia Commons)

On Dec. 9, China’s President Xi Jinping met with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss deepening ties between the Gulf countries and China.

At the top of the agenda was increased trade between China and the GCC, with the former pledging to “import crude oil in a consistent manner and in large quantities from the GCC” as well to increase imports of natural gas.

In 1993, China became a net importer of oil, surpassing the United States as the largest importer of crude oil by 2017. Half of that oil comes from the Arabian Peninsula, and more than a quarter of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports go to China. Despite being a major importer of oil, China has reduced its carbon emissions.

A few days before he arrived in Riyadh, Xi published an article in al-Riyadh that announced greater strategic and commercial partnerships with the region, including “cooperation in high-tech sectors including 5G communications, new energy, space, and digital economy.”

Saudi Arabia and China signed commercial deals worth $30 billion, including in areas that would strengthen the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Xi’s visit to Riyadh is one of his few overseas trips since the Covid-19 pandemic.

His first was to Central Asia for the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in September, where the nine member states (which represent 40 percent of the world’s population) agreed to increase trade with each other using their local currencies.

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World Dollar Hegemony Is Ending (and That May Be a Good Thing), by Patrick Barron

The reserve currency status of the fiat dollar allows the U.S. to get a lot of something with a lot of nothing. The world has grown tired of that. From Patrick Barron at mises.org:

The end of world dollar hegemony is coming and hardly anyone in government is taking notice or even understands what this means. Since the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, the dollar has been the only currency accepted throughout the world for settlement of international trade accounts among nations.

Prior to 1944, physical gold was used for international settlement. When an exporter in country A sold goods to an importer in country B, country B would pay with its own currency. But country A would have no interest in allowing country B’s currency to build up in its vaults beyond an amount required to settle its own importers’ needs. Thus, country A would demand that country B redeem its own currency in gold. Sometimes country B would ship physical gold to country A. Or perhaps gold held in safekeeping in a third country would be designated as now belonging to country A, a book entry transaction that is more convenient than physical movement.

The Bretton Woods Agreement and Its Demise

The Bretton Woods Agreement added the dollar as tantamount to physical gold at $35 per ounce. The reason was simple: at the end of World War II the United States had accumulated a preponderance of gold, due primarily to its role as the “arsenal of democracy.” Thus, central banks could exchange dollars for settlement rather than moving or redesignating the ownership of physical gold. The weakness of this system was that the world had to trust the USA not to create more dollars than it could redeem for gold at $35 per ounce. But central banks always had the option to demand physical gold from the USA and hence ensure that their trust in the measure of $35 per ounce was fully supported.

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The End is Nearing: A World Slowly/Openly Turning Away from the USD, by Matthew Piepenburg

The U.S. is managing to throw away a colossal advantage it held in global affairs: the world’s reserve currency. From Matthew Piepenburg at goldswitzerland.com:

With the USD losing influence, it would be the understatement of the year to say that we live in interesting times, for we certainly do.

But despite the inevitable attacks of appearing sensational, un-American or just plain cynical, I feel a more appropriate phrase boils down to this:

“We live in dishonest times.”

Below, I bluntly address the “Fed pivot debate,” the “inflation debate” and the USD’s slow global decline in the setting of a now multi-FX new normal in which gold’s historical bull market has yet to even begin.

These views are not based on biased politics, but honest economics, which for some odd reason, ought to still matter.

Let’s dig in.

The New Normal: Open Dishonesty

I recently authored a report showcasing a string cite of empirically open lies which now pass for reality on everything from the CPI inflation scale to the Cleveland Fed’s +1 real interest rate myth, or from official unemployment data to the now comical (revised) definition of a recession.

But a more recent lie from on high comes directly from the highest of all, U.S. President Joe Biden.

Earlier this month, Biden waddled to his podium and prompt-read to the world that the US just saw 0% inflation for the month of July.

Oh dear . . .

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Collapse Is Happening Before Our Eyes, James Rickards

The dollar as the reserve currency is slowly falling apart. From James Rickards at dailyreckoning.com:

Analysts and authors, myself included, have been warning about the collapse of the dollar as the global reserve currency for years. I described this prospect in my first book, Currency Wars (2011), and in several other books in the years since.

This process can take many years. For example, the decline of sterling as the leading global reserve currency played out over 30 years from 1914 (the beginning of World War I) to 1944 (the Bretton Woods conference).

Still, events today are playing out so quickly that the collapse is happening in front of our eyes.

It’s no longer a matter of a major event on the horizon; it’s occurring in real-time. Russia has just linked the ruble to gold at a rate of 5,000 rubles to one gram of gold. China is discussing with Saudi Arabia the prospect of paying for oil in yuan.

Israel is likewise considering taking yuan in exchange for its high-tech exports. China and Russia are creating new payments systems to avoid U.S. sanctions. You get the point.

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Basic Solutions To Our Economic Problems That Establishment Elites Won’t Allow, by Brandon Smith

The basic solution to our economic problems would be if establishment elites would get the hell out of the way. From Brandon Smith at alt-market.us:

I think one of the great misconceptions about economic crisis is that solutions are always dependent on centralized government action. In truth, most financial disasters are actually caused by too much government action and involvement. Central banks like the Federal Reserve are also primary culprits; as I outlined in last week’s article their machinations, which are independent of government oversight, fall into the category of deliberate sabotage. The Fed bankrolls corruption through fiat money creation while government officials and corporations utilize that money to wreak havoc on our living standards.

Ending the Fed would solve the fiat money problem, but there’s still a host of agenda driven politicians and bureaucrats to deal with before our nation can right the ship.

One clear way to fix our system would be to first force government to interfere less. As a point of reference, consider the common media narratives surrounding the covid pandemic. Along with the White House the media has been the premier driver of irrational fear over the spread of covid, which ended up being a minor threat compared to the hype as the average Infection Fatality Rate was no more that 0.27%. Yet, in response to a virus that was a mortal danger to less than one-thrid of 1% of the population, bureaucrats declared a national emergency requiring insane and unconstitutional lockdowns.

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“Nice Narrative” But No: Why One Strategist Thinks Zoltan Pozsar’s “Bretton Woods 3” Is Never Going To Happen, by Michael Every

Breaking with a consensus that has formed very quickly, one analyst doesn’t think a Bretton Woods 3 currency regime (commodity-based) is just around the corner. From Michael Every via zerohedge.com:

Nice narrative: but it’s just ‘mercantilism’

Summary

  • Sanctions on Russia are seen as accelerating a dramatic shift towards a new global commodity-focused ‘Bretton Woods 3’ architecture
  • However, this is actually a very old economic argument: mercantilism
  • History, logic, trade data, and economic geography all show the US can do well in that kind of realpolitik environment
  • By contrast, the opportunity to shift global trade flows away from USD to others is limited: fundamentally, neither CNY nor commodity currencies are set up to rival USD globally
  • The USD will therefore retain its global role despite the ‘Bretton Woods 3’ hype

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The Party’s Over, by The Zman

Having the world’s reserve currency was fun while it lasted. From The Zman at takimag.com:

The Party’s Over

Money, as most people understand it, is the bits of metal and paper issued by the country where you live. For Europeans, it is the colorful stuff issued by the European Union, rather than your home government. Even so, no one thinks much about money beyond what it can do for you. It is the cool stuff you can buy, how much you earn, and how much you have to spend for the things you need to live.

The West is suffering from inflation at the moment, so people are noticing that their money buys less than it did in the recent past. In most Western countries, fuel prices are 50 percent higher than a year ago. Food prices have doubled for some items, and the price hikes have only just started to bite. Britain is warning that they are facing the biggest drop in the standard of living ever recorded.

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Update on US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency and the Impact of USD Exchange Rates & Inflation, by Wolf Richter

The dollar has been losing market share of international trade for years and that may continue. However, keep telling the world that dollar reserves  are no longer safe and the decline may be dramatic and sudden. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

Dollar drops to lowest share in 26 years. Slowly but surely?

With inflation raging in the US following the Fed’s $5-trillion money-printing orgy and interest-rate repression, the question constantly arises: When will the rest of the world throw in the towel on the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency? If this were to happen all of a sudden, it would spell chaos. But it is happening little by little.

The global share of US-dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves fell by 40 basis points from Q3 to 58.8% in Q4, setting a new 26-year low, edging out the low in Q4 2020, according to the IMF’s COFER data released at the end of March. Dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves consist of Treasury securities, US corporate bonds, US mortgage-backed securities, and other USD-denominated assets that are held by foreign central banks and other foreign official institutions.

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