Tag Archives: U.S. dollar

The End is Nearing: A World Slowly/Openly Turning Away from the USD, by Matthew Piepenburg

The U.S. is managing to throw away a colossal advantage it held in global affairs: the world’s reserve currency. From Matthew Piepenburg at goldswitzerland.com:

With the USD losing influence, it would be the understatement of the year to say that we live in interesting times, for we certainly do.

But despite the inevitable attacks of appearing sensational, un-American or just plain cynical, I feel a more appropriate phrase boils down to this:

“We live in dishonest times.”

Below, I bluntly address the “Fed pivot debate,” the “inflation debate” and the USD’s slow global decline in the setting of a now multi-FX new normal in which gold’s historical bull market has yet to even begin.

These views are not based on biased politics, but honest economics, which for some odd reason, ought to still matter.

Let’s dig in.

The New Normal: Open Dishonesty

I recently authored a report showcasing a string cite of empirically open lies which now pass for reality on everything from the CPI inflation scale to the Cleveland Fed’s +1 real interest rate myth, or from official unemployment data to the now comical (revised) definition of a recession.

But a more recent lie from on high comes directly from the highest of all, U.S. President Joe Biden.

Earlier this month, Biden waddled to his podium and prompt-read to the world that the US just saw 0% inflation for the month of July.

Oh dear . . .

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“Nice Narrative” But No: Why One Strategist Thinks Zoltan Pozsar’s “Bretton Woods 3” Is Never Going To Happen, by Michael Every

Breaking with a consensus that has formed very quickly, one analyst doesn’t think a Bretton Woods 3 currency regime (commodity-based) is just around the corner. From Michael Every via zerohedge.com:

Nice narrative: but it’s just ‘mercantilism’

Summary

  • Sanctions on Russia are seen as accelerating a dramatic shift towards a new global commodity-focused ‘Bretton Woods 3’ architecture
  • However, this is actually a very old economic argument: mercantilism
  • History, logic, trade data, and economic geography all show the US can do well in that kind of realpolitik environment
  • By contrast, the opportunity to shift global trade flows away from USD to others is limited: fundamentally, neither CNY nor commodity currencies are set up to rival USD globally
  • The USD will therefore retain its global role despite the ‘Bretton Woods 3’ hype

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The Party’s Over, by The Zman

Having the world’s reserve currency was fun while it lasted. From The Zman at takimag.com:

The Party’s Over

Money, as most people understand it, is the bits of metal and paper issued by the country where you live. For Europeans, it is the colorful stuff issued by the European Union, rather than your home government. Even so, no one thinks much about money beyond what it can do for you. It is the cool stuff you can buy, how much you earn, and how much you have to spend for the things you need to live.

The West is suffering from inflation at the moment, so people are noticing that their money buys less than it did in the recent past. In most Western countries, fuel prices are 50 percent higher than a year ago. Food prices have doubled for some items, and the price hikes have only just started to bite. Britain is warning that they are facing the biggest drop in the standard of living ever recorded.

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The Dominance Of The U.S. Dollar Is Fading Right Before Our Eyes, by QTR Fringe Finance

The U.S. dollar’s days as the reserve currency are numbered. From QTR Fringe Finance at zerohedge.com:

It was just a couple of weeks ago that I wrote an article arguing that the economic sanctions we have cast upon in Russia, due to its invasion of Ukraine, likely mark the beginning of a period where China and Russia would bifurcate the global monetary system, leading them to eventually challenge the U.S. dollar’s reserve status.

Now, Saudi Arabia is joining the fray, further threatening to tip the balance of the global monetary scales that have kept the U.S. dollar afloat for decades.

The fact that predictions of a “new economy” and “new monetary system” only exist on fringe blogs like mine and haven’t gone mainstream given the current economic situation with Russia (even amidst our abuses of printing the dollar over the last several decades) is baffling to me.

As I noted to Andy Schectman in a recent podcast, our quality of life in the United States and our nation’s entire economy is an elephant balancing, on one leg, on the toothpick of the U.S. dollar’s reserve status.

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A Global Monetary & Commodity Inferno of Nuclear Proportions, by Egon von Greyerz

The world is going up in monetary smoke. From Egon von Greyerz at goldswitzerland.com:

When the sh-t hits the global fan, it often does it at the optimal time for the maximum amount of damage and with the worst kind of sh-t to soil the world.

For years I have been clear that the world is reaching the end of an economic, financial and monetary era which will affect mankind catastrophically for decades.

The world will obviously blame Putin for the catastrophe which will hit every corner of our planet. But we must remember that neither Putin nor Covid is the reason for the economic cataclysm that we are now approaching.

These events are catalysts which will have a major effect because they are hitting a gigantic debt bubble of a magnitude that has never been seen before in history. And it obviously takes very little to prick this epic bubble.

What is unequivocal is that all currencies will finish the 100+ year fall to ZERO in the next few years. It is also crystal clear that all the asset bubbles – stocks, bonds and property – will implode at the same time leading to a long and deep depression.

We had the warning in 2006-9 but central banks ignored it and just added new worthless debt to existing worthless debt to create worthless debt squared – an obvious recipe for disaster.

So as is often typical for the end of an economic era, the catalyst is totally unexpected and worse than anyone could have forecast.

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