The Other Conspiracy Against Trump, by Robert Gore

Trump faces foes that make the Washington crowd look like child’s play.

President Trump has announced he will speak with Robert Mueller under oath. He’s waving the victory flag. By allowing Mueller’s probe to proceed despite substantial irregularities and bias that would have justified a “You’re Fired!”, Trump has decisively faced down the opposition. The tables are turned and they’ll be on the run for years. If he does talk to Mueller (and he says that’s subject to his lawyers) it will be an exclamation point on Trump’s repeated contentions that there’s nothing to the Russiagate investigation.

Having vanquished the foes he could vanquish, Trump faces an enemy he has little hope of defeating: the economics of empire. It’s felled countless regimes. Empires always take more energy and resources to maintain than what they can steal from their subjugated provinces. They incur debts they can’t repay and levy crushing taxes. Then they collapse.

At its zenith after World War II, the US provided Europe’s defense against the threat of Soviet invasion. In exchange, behind the veneer of sovereign states, elections, and other trappings of democracy, the US ran Europe.

Seven decades later, the Soviet Union is no more, but the US is still providing most of Europe’s defense. Russia, the Soviet successor, has a GDP about one-fourteenth the size of either the US or Europe’s. It spends about one-tenth of what the US does on its military.

Even President Vladimir Putin most rabid opponents don’t suggest he would launch an attack against Europe. Its deadliest military assets is its nuclear arsenal (it has reportedly developed a torpedo that can take out the US’s west or east coast). However, going nuclear would provoke a US response that would wipe out Russia. and probably most of the rest of the planet.

The US “defends” Europe when there’s nothing in the way of external military threats to defend against (they’re in more danger from the Muslims). President Trump has carped about picking up the tab. Europe could easily afford to pay 100 percent of the cost of defending itself against the minimal threats it faces. The US presence has nothing to do with defending Europe. The US maintains an imperial garrison and will happily continue to bear most of the cost.

Trump, seemingly enamored of empire, has gone quiet about the NATO bill. Yet he faces empire economics: the US gets out less than what it puts in. Military spending in a land not under threat generates no economic returns, it’s a deadweight loss.

You’d be hard pressed to find a square inch on this planet that somebody in the US government doesn’t claim represents a vital US interest. The reasoning is so warped that the US not sticking its nose somewhere is now regarded as a threat to its interests.

Russia, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah subdued ISIS, the US’s ostensible enemy, in Syria and Iraq. Syria is on the threshold of peace for the first time in seven years. After millions have been killed, wounded, or displaced—in large part because of the US’s botched intervention—the US could claim more credit than it deserves for vanquishing ISIS, declare victory, and go home.

Instead, against the stated desire of the Syrian government and in clear contravention of international law, the US continues doing what it’s done: staying put, funding rebel and jihadist groups of every stripe, and hoping that somehow Bashar al-Assad will be driven from power. There simply can’t be a country in the Middle East left free from US meddling.

After a long freeze, relations between North and South Korea are beginning to thaw. President Trump’s bellicose rhetoric may be responsible. Perhaps North Korean dictator Kin Jong-Un recognizes that talk is better than war. If so, that puts him a step ahead of numerous US commentators, mostly of the neoconservative persuasion, who lament the thaw may “drive a wedge” between the US and its best friend forever, South Korea. The chances of war recede and they’re disappointed.

The US has driven a wedge between the two Koreas. If there is a rapprochement, the US could tone down and eventually stop its annual war exercises with South Korea. Thousands of troops it has stationed there could be redeployed. The wedge removed, Koreans would decide the fate of the Korean Peninsula. Given South Korea’s economic prowess and North Korea’s economic backwardness, the resolution would probably tilt towards South Korea. But that’s not going to happen. It would leave the peninsula intolerably free of the US government.

Military and intelligence spending has made its contribution to the US’s $20 trillion plus deficit. There’s the direct effect, and in the way Washington works, the legislative “price” of military spending is often increased non-military spending as well, an indirect effect. The US economy was having a tough time bearing its debt load under Obama, and more debt is coming. But for Federal Reserve sleight of hand the load would weigh even heavier. Rising interest rates are ringing a bell. Empire and debt always go hand-in-hand, and so, eventually, does bankruptcy and collapse.

Encouraged by his generals, Trump has increased military budgets, redefined the US’s “mission” as global competition with Russia and China, doubled down on Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Iran, and continued to expand the size and reach of US special operations forces. The argument can be made that he is feinting one direction and will go another, more advanced strategic thinking comparable to his maneuvers on Russiagate. In this analysis it’s a head fake, a prelude to reducing the US’s outsize footprint and spending. Get bigger before you get smaller.

Even if that implausible argument proves correct, the economics of empire and debt are impervious to head fakes. They’re not the deluded, corrupt Washington crowd Trump has outsmarted; they’re relentless and inexorable. Trump’s predecessors left him in a deep hole. That he digs deeper but plans to stop one day is irrelevant.

President Trump is a master of persuasion and sales. He’s demonstrated a Machiavellian flair for hardball political tactics, making fools of those who had dismissed him as a fool.

Unfortunately, empire drains the US and its debt compounds. Trump spends more on the empire and won’t address that other driver of debt, domestic entitlements. What Robert Mueller can’t do—drive Trump from office—empire and debt might. Theirs is a particularly ruthless conspiracy. Like countless rulers before him, Trump may recognize the danger too late to do anything about it.

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14 responses to “The Other Conspiracy Against Trump, by Robert Gore

  1. Robert another bang a gong bell ringer!

    “Barack Obama famously called stocks “a potentially good deal” six days before they bottomed in 2009, and Ronald Reagan went to the New York Stock Exchange in 1985 to say his tax policies “helped re-energize” equities. Trump takes it further, with constant tweets about the Dow’s ascent that tie his fortunes to market direction to a degree that has no obvious precedent.”

    The above quote is from a Bloomberg article from last October. I am left with:
    Why on God’s green earth is Trump whistling past the super bigly “Everything Bubble” grave yard, while digging all the holes deeper while bragging about it???

    There has to be a plan for the burst or it’s a betrayal? I just can’t buy he is on any side but his own “winning” side, which by default includes U.S., so the betrayal doesn’t compute for me. That he would be the willing fall guy as the Media/Left would make him (even though that’s not true) is obvious, so of course that possibility has been considered…but I don’t believe he he would willingly go that route.

    I understand stepping over the 3rd rail (I don’t agree with it but I understand it)…but upping the amps and handing “them” the proverbial Nixonion sword doesn’t make any sense…except possibly blind hubris? But, I really don’t think he is that stupid.

    He has to have weighed the danger in your last sentence…there has to be plans and counters and end runs or end games not guessed…at least by me and my limited grey matter…for after the inevitable POP?

    What you speculate on what would be his counter(s) if the old children’s song is reversed…and the POP is triggered by the weasels…before Trump finishes turning the handle?

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    • Mark
      Thanks. I don’t what Trump does with a market calamity, but I’ve got a pretty strong feeling that a calamity is coming. I understand debt and economics better than I understand Trump. By taking credit for the market’s rally he looks like he’s walking into a trap, but maybe he’s got something up his sleeve. What that might be, I don’t have a clue. I’ll just have to wait and see like everyone else. If I develop further insight, you’ll read it here first.

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  2. sp Would you speculate on what would be his counter(s) if the old children’s song is reversed…and the POP is triggered by the weasels…before Trump finishes turning the handle?

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  3. Pingback: The Other Conspiracy Against Trump « Financial Survival Network

  4. Maybe Trump’s EO discussed here and the sealed indictments are part of the winning plan? The EO has gotten almost no play in Big Media and it is far reaching.

    A bold spiritual side of the possibilities.

    Mark Taylor – America Will Be a Better Place When all this Corruption is Purged

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  5. Mr Gore,

    Great article. I’m a novice when it comes to markets and finance but I’m well versed on political tactics and strategy. Trump is going to preside over the greatest successful bankruptcy reorganization the world has ever seen.

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  6. Pingback: SLL: The Other Conspiracy Against Trump | Western Rifle Shooters Association

  7. That bankruptcy you guys speak of will kill business in the US if implemented, because in a bankruptcy, some one is always left holding an empty bag that should have payment in it. The Fed will have it’s bank members call in their notes to replace the shucked debts of FedGov, and that will go on long enough to dry up credit, destroy capital, and leave business with nothing to operate on or with. Not to mention what will happen to millions of home owners who have their notes called. Millions of homeless will not faze the Fed one whit, and these people will not have jobs, either. This is a situation that cannot be won, or remedied. The Empire is finished, it just doesn’t know it yet.

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  8. Post-American Politics Is Kayfabe. The Word Is KAYFABE.
    KAYFABE: kayfabe /ˈkeɪfeɪb/ is the portrayal of staged events within the industry as “real” or “true,” specifically the portrayal of competition, rivalries, and relationships between participants as being genuine and not of a staged or pre-determined nature of any kind. Kayfabe has also evolved to become a code word of sorts for maintaining this “reality” within the direct or indirect presence of the general public.

    http://www.barnhardt.biz/2016/10/08/post-american-politics-is-kayfabe-the-word-is-kayfabe/

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  9. CFR: Trump Names President of Council on Foreign Relations as National Security Adviser..
    when Donald Trump was asked by Megyn Kelly who he is listening to as top national security advisers, the first name Trump mentioned was Richard Haass.

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  10. Pingback: Daily Reading #229 | thinkpatriot

  11. Lynn Goldhammer

    Perchance, some of this initial investment/spending is needed for less debt in the long run. It’s a huge debt having all these social entitlements. Decreasing unemployment and building greater self sufficiency may in the end decrease our debt. I’d be happy to see all our military assets brought home: maybe put them on the boarder and just shoot anyone who crosses it. It would be utilizing existing assets without the cost of a wall. Bottom line, I’d like to give him the benefit of the doubt – he’s got some really good results so far…

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