Tag Archives: Covid-19 statistics

Impending Doom, Indeed! by David Stockman

Graphs don’t generally move in straight lines and no matter what the trend, there’s usually some movement contrary to the trend. A squiggle in clear downtrend lines for coronavirus cases and deaths had Biden’s new CDC director, Rochelle Walensky, in tears as she conveyed her fear of “impending doom.” Where the hell do they come up with these people? From David Stockman, at davidstockmanscontracorner via lewrockwell.com:

We will not mince words. America is indeed suffering from a dangerous plague – a plague of misanthropic fear-mongering from the likes of Dr. Fauci, the Scarf Lady and the Biden’s new CDC director, among countless others of the self-designated Virus Patrol.

All three took to the mainstream media in recent days, with new CDC director Rochelle Walensky getting positively teary-eyed as she allegedly veered off-script to sound yet another Covid Alarm:

“I’m going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom,” Walensky said, appearing to hold back tears.

“We do not have the luxury of inaction. For the health of our country, we must work together now to prevent a fourth surge.”

What? Where? Wait!

Here’s the source of Doom. Well, if you have your magnifying glass handy you might possibly spot it – the squiggle down there in the yellow box below!

Actually, she was not nearly done. When it comes to paint by the numbers exaggeration and hysteria the following is hard to top.

It seems that the reason for Walensky’s alarm is that from the winter-flu season peak on January 13th, when the 7-day moving average reported 251,912 so-called “new cases”, the 7-day rate had plummeted by 77.8% to 55,840 on March 15th, but as of March 28 it was down by only, um, 75.3%!

The nation is recording a seven-day average of about 57,000 new Covid-19 cases per day, a 7% jump over the last week, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House news briefing on the pandemic.

You can’t make up this kind of calculated mendacity, including, presumably, the off-script scripted tears.

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The CDC is about to be canceled by Google and Facebook for COVID heresy, by Simon Black

We’re all supposed to follow the official science, but the official science keeps changing. From Simon Black at sovereignman.com:

On Friday afternoon, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (still called the CDC, even though they added a ‘P’) released a heretical report about mask-wearing and COVID-19.

The report, authored by at least a dozen medical doctors, PhD researchers, and, bizarrely, a handful of attorneys, examined how mask mandates across the US affected COVID cases and death rates.

You’d think with all of the media propaganda about mask effectiveness… and all the virtue signaling, with politicians and reporters appearing on live TV wearing masks… that the data would prove incontrovertibly and overwhelmingly that masks have saved the world.

But that’s not what the report says.

According to the CDC’s analysis, between March 1 and December 31 last year, statewide mask mandates were in effect in 2,313 of the 3,142 counties in the United States.

And, looking at the county-by-county data, the CDC concludes that mask mandates were associated with an average 1.32% decrease in the growth rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths during the first 100 days after the mask policy was implemented.

Wait, what? Only 1.32%?

You read that correctly, they didn’t misplace the decimal: according to the federal government agency that is responsible for managing the COVID-1984 pandemic, the difference between mask mandates and no mask mandate is literally just a 1.32% difference.

And bear in mind, it’s entirely possible that the real figure is even lower than that, given all the questionable COVID statistics.

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Figures Don’t Lie, but Liars Figure, by Jeff Thomas

The figures have never added up on Covid-19 and they still don’t add up. From Jeff Thomas at internationalman.com:

t’s an old saying, but never truer than today, when profoundly false figures are being used to fuel the COVID hysteria.

In less than one year, the rulers of the US and many other countries have successfully closed down businesses, decimated social interaction, shut down those who sought to seek group solace in their faith, trashed economies and forcibly seized power, replacing democratic structure with executive edict.

This has been achieved solely through the creation of fear over a flu virus.

Mother Jones has stated,The staggering death toll was both preventable and entirely predictable. Even aside from his vast personal incompetence… Trump blithely put into practice cherished conservative principles that are incompatible with a decent pandemic response. Castigating and de-legitimizing government institutions, demonizing minority communities, and playing into white grievances may help Republicans win elections, but when it comes to beating back a massive public health catastrophe, what’s paramount is robust public agencies, a strong health care system, and special attention to the vulnerable. In many ways, we were doomed from the start.”

Pretty scathing. As we can see, the media are not just commenting, but handing out pitchforks to the villagers. As in all irrational calls to arms, the former president has already been convicted of genocide in the court of public opinion. By comparison, Dr. Fauci, who has served as the government’s expert physician has been left off the hook entirely; yet no eyebrow is raised.

Some people in the US will swear by the above statements, whilst others will say that they are exaggerations and misinterpretations.

Interestingly, however, most all Americans seem quite willing to accept the 400,000 death count as being accurate.

And yet we can obtain the A.M.A. and/or CDC/NCHS annual All-Cause death statistics and both sources offer up a very different picture.

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To vaccinate or not to vaccinate; that is the question? [Letter from Great Britain – 03-06-21], by Austrian Peter

The scamdemic is cover for financial catastrophe and totalitarian control. From Austrian Peter at theburningplatform.com:

Good news! Covid case rates are falling rapidly across the world.  I wonder why?  Is it really about the vaccine rollout?  The global decline in “Covid deaths” started in mid-to-late January.  What else happened around that time?  On January 13th the WHO published a memo regarding the problem of asymptomatic cases being discovered by PCR tests, and suggesting any asymptomatic positive tests be repeated.

This followed up their previous memo, instructing labs around the world to use lower cycle thresholds (CT values) for PCR tests, as values over 35 could produce false positives.  Essentially, in two memos the WHO ensured future testing would be less likely to produce false positives and made it much harder to be labelled an “asymptomatic case”.

In short, logic would suggest we’re not in fact seeing a “decline in Covid cases” or a “decrease in Covid deaths” at all.  What we’re seeing is a decline in perfectly healthy people being labelled “Covid cases” based on a false positive from an unreliable testing process. And we’re seeing fewer people dying of flu, pneumonia, cancer or other disease having “Covid19” added to their death certificate based on testing criteria designed to inflate the pandemic. https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

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UK COVID Conundrum: The Mysterious Case of Disappearing Flu, by Banson Wilcot, PhD

UK death figures show no deaths in excess of previous years’ numbers. From Banson Wilcot, PhD, at principia-scientific.com/uk:

At the end of 2020 many statisticians, doctors and independent scientists noticed something amiss about this extraordinary year. The Office of National Statistics, Public Health England shows that the numbers for death from influenza and those from Covid-19 are askew.

Despite the media and government pandemic presentations, we need to step back and consider the larger picture.

Sometimes it is difficult to see the forest for the trees, but perhaps we have succumbed to seeing a single tree and ignoring the rest of the forest.

Is the fact that one virus has suddenly been given a name, Covid-19, (with wildly hyped media coverage) taken our focus off the overall reality of the annual flu season group of viruses? Has one name and media hype highjacked our lives?

With the 2019–2020 flu season, there have been a number of reports of Covid-19 illnesses in the UK and USA well before the end of 2020. Just today there was a report of Covid-19 illnesses in China as early as August, 2019. [1A]

Until the introduction of the PCR test for Covid-19 in late February, Covid-19 cases and deaths did not exist. This gives the impression that the virus appeared just then, while it was undoubtedly present much earlier as part of the flu season, from numerous anecdotal reports. Various reports indicate symptoms typical of Covid-19 in the U.S. as early as November–December, 2019 and likely even earlier.

With growing attention given to the virus and the increasing availability of PCR testing, we started receiving regular accounts of the number “cases” of the virus. Stepping back a bit and looking at general numbers and ignoring the contentious PCR accuracy regarding positive and negative cases, we see an overall pattern that is very similar to past flu seasons. Cases of flu-like illness generally start in October/November and last until March or April in the UK [1].

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Mysterious Disappearance of Flu in San Diego Prompted Call for Audit of COVID Records, from 21st Century Wire

If you call flu cases Covid-19 cases you can really bump up those case numbers. From 21st Century Wire at 21stcenturywire.com:

One of the most bizarre features of the alleged COVID-19 ‘global pandemic’ has been the mysterious disappearance of the seasonal flu in medical and public health record keeping. It’s as if the Flu just vanished into thin air after being the most common perennial seasonal respiratory virus.

As it turns out, recorded seasonal influenza cases have literally nosedived by 98% across the globe.

This improbable phenomenon has led a number of experts to ask, “Has Covid killed off the flu?”

“The disappearing act began as Covid-19 rolled in towards the end of our flu season in March. And just how swiftly rates have plummeted can be observed in ‘surveillance’ data collected by the World Health Organisation (WHO),” reported the UK’s Daily Mail.

WHO spokesperson, Dr Sylvie Briand, recently claimed during a press briefing that “literally there was nearly no flu in the Southern hemisphere” of the planet Earth in 2020, but gave no real explanation as to why. She then went on to extend this magical thinking saying that, “We hope that the situation will be the same in the Northern Hemisphere.”

Truly extraordinary science by the health experts at the WHO.

Earlier in December, Southern California news outlet KUSI raised the alarm which prompted an audit of COVID statistics in their region…

SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – COVID-19 cases continue to increase across California, and here in San Diego County, but flu cases remain extremely low in comparison to this time in previous years.

We are well into flu season, but San Diego County’s data for flu infections only shows 36 reported cases so far this year. Carl DeMaio tweeted out this shocking revelation, comparing it to this time in other years saying, “In a typical year we get over 17,073 on average!”

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The Covid-19 Data is a ‘Travesty’, by Insight History

Here’s a bet you don’t want the other side of at any odds: As soon a Covid-19 vaccines start, death and case rates start coming miraculously down. From Insight History at off-guardian.org:

How the UK and US Covid Death Data is Inflated

Although people have tragically died from Covid-19, the way the Covid-19 death data is recorded in many countries around the world has produced, and continues to produce, an inflated death toll. This inflated death toll has then been, and continues to be, used by fascist-style bureaucracies, in conjunction with scientific priesthoods, to terrify the general public into obedience.

Correlation Does Not Equal Causation

One of the most basic laws of statistics is that correlation does not equal causation. Although this may sound complicated, it’s not. It simply means that just because there is a correlation between two variables, or to put this another way, a close relationship between two things in the world, this does not mean that one thing is causing the other thing to happen.

A third factor may be causing the correlation that is observed for instance. As an example, there is usually a correlation in many countries between cold weather and people buying more goods in shops, or online, but this increase in buying is not caused by cold weather. Instead, it is caused by the Christmas period, when people spend more money, and it just happens to be the case that the weather is usually cold in December in many parts of the world that celebrate Christmas. So, even though there is a correlation between cold weather and increased buying patterns, cold weather does not cause increased buying patterns, but the Christmas period causes people to buy more goods.

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New CDC Estimates: Fatality Rate For COVID-19 Drops Again And May Surprise You, by Mark Glennon

What are the chances of dying from coronavirus if you get it? Here are the numbers from the CDC, broken down by age. From Mark Glennon at wirepoints.org:

What’s are the real chances of dying if you are infected with COVID-19? You’ll probably be surprised how low they are according to new numbers from the Center for Disease Control. We’ll state those numbers simply for those of you who aren’t crazy about math.

The CDC’s new estimate, for the first time, is broken down by age groups. Here is what the CDC calls its “current best estimate” of chances of dying from the virus if you get infected:

1 out of 34,000 for ages 0 to 19;

1 out of 5,000 for ages 20 to 49;

1 out of 200 for ages 50 to 69; and

1 out of 20 for ages 70 and up.

Here’s another way to look at the same numbers. If you get infected, your chances of surviving are as follows:

Age Group                                           Probability of Survival

0-19:                                                    99.9997%
20-49:                                                  99.98%
50-69:                                                  99.5%
70+:                                                     94.6%

The CDC’s numbers are actually published as what’s called the “Infection Fatality Ratio” or IFR. The relevant portion of their chart is reproduced below. We’ve just stated their numbers a different way and rounded a bit. IFR includes, as those who were “infected,” those who got the virus but never got sick or displayed symptoms.

The CDC’s “best estimate” may be off and it offered other scenarios, also shown in the chart below. They are all very low, however, as you can see. For those age 20-49, for example, even under the worse case scenario, the IFR is only .0003. That means your chances of dying even if you got infected would be 1 out of 3,333.

Estimates of COVID’s lethality have been dropping regularly. In March, when most of the nation went into lockdown, Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated the mortality rate at about 2% and the World Health Organization pegged it at about 3.4%. Both are far higher than the current CDC estimate.

Those earlier numbers, which were far more frightening, got extensive press coverage. Very little media attention, however, has gone toward the new numbers.

 

Lies, Damned Lies and Health Statistics – the Deadly Danger of False Positives, by Dr Michael Yeadon

An extended look at the intricacies of Covid-19’s statistics and the fallacies surrounding those statistics, from Dr. Michael Yeadon at lockdownskeptics.org:

I never expected to be writing something like this. I am an ordinary person, recently semi-retired from a career in the pharmaceutical industry and biotech, where I spent over 30 years trying to solve problems of disease understanding and seek new treatments for allergic and inflammatory disorders of lung and skin. I’ve always been interested in problem solving, so when anything biological comes along, my attention is drawn to it. Come 2020, came SARS-CoV-2. I’ve written about the pandemic as objectively as I could. The scientific method never leaves a person who trained and worked as a professional scientist. Please do read that piece. My co-authors & I will submit it to the normal rigours of peer review, but that process is slow and many pieces of new science this year have come to attention through pre-print servers and other less conventional outlets.

While paying close attention to data, we all initially focused on the sad matter of deaths. I found it remarkable that, in discussing the COVID-19 related deaths, most people I spoke to had no idea of large numbers. Asked approximately how many people a year die in the UK in the ordinary course of events, each a personal tragedy, They usually didn’t know. I had to inform them it is around 620,000, sometimes less if we had a mild winter, sometimes quite a bit higher if we had a severe ’flu season. I mention this number because we know that around 42,000 people have died with or of COVID-19. While it’s a huge number of people, its ‘only’ 0.06% of the UK population. Its not a coincidence that this is almost the same proportion who have died with or of COVID-19 in each of the heavily infected European countries – for example, Sweden. The annual all-causes mortality of 620,000 amounts to 1,700 per day, lower in summer and higher in winter. That has always been the lot of humans in the temperate zones. So for context, 42,000 is about ~24 days worth of normal mortality. Please know I am not minimising it, just trying to get some perspective on it. Deaths of this magnitude are not uncommon, and can occur in the more severe flu seasons. Flu vaccines help a little, but on only three occasions in the last decade did vaccination reach 50% effectiveness. They’re good, but they’ve never been magic bullets for respiratory viruses. Instead, we have learned to live with such viruses, ranging from numerous common colds all the way to pneumonias which can kill. Medicines and human caring do their best.

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Florida Is A Case Study In Media-Induced COVID-19 Panic, from Issues and Insights

If an asteroid wiped out half the US population, the media and medical profession would figure out how to count the deaths as Covid-19. From the editorial board at Issues and Insights, issueinsights.com:

Florida Dept of Health

I&I Editorial

What do all these news accounts have in common?

“Florida Sets Yet Another Coronavirus Record: 173 Deaths In A Day.”

“A record 173 Floridians died from the virus Thursday, an average of more than one every eight minutes.”

“The 134 new confirmed deaths is the second-largest increase on record, coming five days after the largest one-day jump of 156 last week.”

“COVID-19 has ravaged Florida, with more than 237,000 people testing positive and 2,013 dying from the virus in July alone.”

So what characteristic do all of the reports share? They are all false.

It is not true that 173 people died from COVID-19 “in a day” in Florida. Nor did 134, or 156 on previous days.

It is also untrue than 2,013 had died in July when that story was published.

All of these scary headlines are based on the number of deaths reported by the state on any given day. This is not the same as the number of deaths that occurred on those days.

The difference might seem trivial. But it’s crucial because the press is using the timing of Florida’s death reports to whip up a frenzy about COVID-19 running riot in the state.

Take a look at the chart below. The blue bars are the number of deaths reported in four days last week. Notice the sharp uphill climb? That’s the story the press has been telling.

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