You may be tired of SLL’s obsession with the debt and demographic tsunami, but like a real tsunami, this one is going to make landfall; in fact, it already has. This article is good for visual learners. From Christ Hamilton at economica.blogspot.com:
No difficult economic terms, no tough charts, just simple math.
1 – The worlds population of under 40 year olds (excluding Africa) has essentially peaked (chart below…bars represent 0-40yr/old population, dashed lines UN future estimates). What is interesting about the under 40 year old population is that they are responsible for about 97% of all pregnancies / births. It’s not impossible for 40+ year old women to have children, just statistically very rare (particularly outside the developed world).
Ok, we’ve established the global under 40 population (excluding Africa) has essentially peaked…now we lay out the chart below that a shrinking population (above) isn’t replacing themselves. Chart below shows world fertility rates, again breaking world fertility (ex-Africa) from the African fertility rate. The world (ex-Africa) has fallen below the 2.1 births per female replacement level…and even Africa is rapidly slowing.
A flat to shrinking child bearing population that is not reproducing at a rate to replace themselves and the fertility rates continue to fall. This all points to the potential the low UN 0-40yr/old population estimate could be fairly accurate (chart 1, lower bound). With either the medium or low estimate, the UN is telling us they expect a massive depopulation of under 40 year olds world-over. Somewhere between 1 billion to 2.5 billion fewer under 40yr/olds by the turn of the century & perhaps well in excess of a 50% decline (except for Africa?!?). I lay out why the Ex-Africa approach to viewing global economics makes sense, HERE.
To continue reading: Why The World Economy Is Likely To Collapse (In 1 Simple Chart)