Tag Archives: Inverted Yield Curve

Writing on the Wall, by MN Gordon

There’s a real economy out there that’s a lot different, and worse off, than the one suggested by Washington’s statistics. From MN Gordon at economicprism.com:

One of the more disagreeable discrepancies of American life in the 21st century is the world according to Washington’s economic bureaus and the world as it actually is.  In short, things don’t add up.  What’s more, the propaganda’s so far off the mark it’s downright insulting.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports an unemployment rate of just 3.7 percent.  The BLS also reports price inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), of 1.8 percent.  Yet big city streets are lined with tents and panhandlers grumble “that’s all” when you spare them a dollar.

In addition, good people, of sound mind and honest intentions, are racking up debt like never before.  Mortgage debt recently topped $9.4 trillion.  If you didn’t know, this eclipses the 2008 high of $9.3 trillion that was notched at the precise moment the credit market melted down.

Total American household debt, which includes mortgages and student loans, is about $14 trillion – roughly $1 trillion higher than in 2008.  Credit card debt, which is over $1 trillion, is also above the 2008 peak.  To be clear, these debt levels are not signs of economic strength; rather, they’re signs of impending disaster.  Moreover, they’re signs that American workers have been given a raw deal.

How is it that the economy’s been growing for a full decade straight, but the average worker’s seen no meaningful increase in their income?  Have workers really been sprinting in place this entire time?  How did they end up in this ridiculous situation?

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Reality Dawning, by Sven Henrich

There are all sorts of indications that a recession is coming. From Sven Henrich at northmantrader.com:

Yesterday’s announcement by the Trump administration to delay some of the new tariffs on China it just announced a few weeks ago was initially greeted with relief by equity markets across the globe. This proved to be mistake as reality is dawning and global stock markets are selling off hard just a day later on ever weakening economic data in Europe and Asia and further yield curve inversions.

Call it a major hangover as the reversal in tariffs was not coming from a position of strength, it was coming as a result of global economic reality sinking in, a reality that is making its way rapidly to US shores as well. The collapse in global yields has been a theme since October of 2018 with the US 10 year dropping to 1.6% from its October 2018 high of 3.25%, but only now that the 2 year/10 year yield curve has inverted are the official recession alarm bells ringing. Why? Because every single recession in the past 45 years has seen a 2 year/10year yield curve inversion preceding it.

To believe no recession is coming is to argue that this inversion is defying history. And indeed let’s look at history, because it is now used to argue that this yield curve inversion leaves room for further market rallies to new highs. Does it?

If history is a guide, then the answer is yes but market relevant timing can vary quite a bit and depending on how the data is framed up you can get different conclusions.

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Recession Incoming or Something Worse? 2/10 Spread Collapses, by Tom Luongo

A classic indicator of impending recession is when the yield curve inverts. In other words, short maturity bonds yield more than longer maturity bonds. From Tom Luongo at tomluongo.me:

UPDATE: Now stocks are selling off and the 2/10 spread is less than 10 basis points.  Gold, however, refuses to sell off while the euro pulls back versus the dollar.

Mike Shedlock over at Mishtalk noted yesterday that there have been a couple of troubling inversions in the U.S. yield curve recently.  They happened in the 2/3 and 3/5 year space.

Mike went on to say that the normal recession indicator, the 2/10 spread, may not invert before the economy turns down.

For further discussion, please see First Inversion in Seven Years: Can a Recession be Far Off?

I repeat my assessment:

  • The classic recession signal that most follow is a 2-10 inversion. I doubt we see a 2-10 inversion before recession hits.
  • My call: There will not be the warning nearly everyone is waiting for

I don’t mean to rain on Mike’s parade, because I fundamentally agree with him that the Fed is raising rates into a global slow-down but the 2/10 spread is collapsing this morning pretty quickly.

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