Tag Archives: Pensions

What Happens as State and Local Tax Revenues Crater? by Charles Hugh Smith

As state and local government revenues crumble, expect politicians to start reconsidering their draconian restrictions on business and economic activity. Somebody has to pay for all that government! From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

We can anticipate a federal bailout of pension funds and one-time aid to state and local governments, but bailouts won’t repair the eroding foundations of tax revenues.

As we all know, the federal government can “print” money but state, county and city governments cannot. The Treasury can sell bonds to fund deficit spending, and the Federal Reserve can create currency out of thin air to buy the bonds, so federal spending can increase even as tax revenues crash.

State, county and city governments do not have this printing press. Yes, states and counties can sell municipal bonds for infrastructure projects, but they can’t sell bonds to support General Fund (i.e. everyday government services) expenditures.

As a result, massive declines in State, county and local tax revenues are already baked in as sales and payroll taxes drop and capital gains taxes–an essential source of revenues for many states–are set to collapse along with the stock market.

Longer term, the other primary source of tax revenues–property taxes–will fall off a cliff as the commercial real estate bubble and Housing Bubble #2 implode later this year. Lower sales, lower employment and lower profits all undermine the fundamentals of real estate, and the institutionalization of remote work and education will gut demand for commercial space.

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Chicago’s Plan to Overhaul City Pensions Dashed by Top Court, by Margaret Cronin Fisk

What’s the over/under, or more aptly, the before/after on Chicago going bankrupt now that a court has declared its pensions sacrosanct? SLL says 12/31/16, but other oddsmakers may have other dates. From Margaret Cronin Fisk at bloomberg.com:

State high court upholds decision blocking pension changes

City warned funds risk running out of money unless altered

Chicago’s plan to ease its $20 billion public-worker pension deficit was ruled illegal by the Illinois Supreme Court, a decision that the city warned may lead to the funds’ running out of money and worsen its financial strains.

The Chicago plan, passed in 2014, violates the Illinois Constitution, which bars the diminishing of public pensions, the court said Thursday. The finding upholds a lower court decision from July and follows a similar ruling by the Illinois Supreme Court last May preventing changes to the state’s pension funds.

“It’s disappointing, but not unexpected,” said Paul Mansour, head of municipal research at Conning, which oversees $11 billion of state and local debt, including Chicago securities. “It will take longer to bring these costs under control absent the ability to enact common sense reforms that were negotiated.”

The city, the third-largest in the nation, shortchanged its pensions over the last decade, creating a shortfall that’s left it with a lower credit rating than any big U.S. city except once-bankrupt Detroit. Under the now void law, its projected annual payment of $886 million due this year to its four retirement funds was more than twice what it was a decade ago, spurring officials to adopt a record property-tax increase to ease the impact on the budget.

The ruling in the Chicago case impairs Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s efforts to pare a deficit that threatens the city’s solvency. The defeat leaves officials racing to devise new ways to shore up retirement system, though it will also save money in the short term because the overhaul required the city to boost contributions to its municipal and laborers funds. The two cover about 60,000 workers and retirees.

To continue reading: Chicago’s Plan to Overhaul City Pensions Dashed by Top Court

“I Guess It’s Food Stamps”: 400,000 Americans In Jeopardy As Giant Pension Fund Plans 50% Benefit Cuts, by Tyler Durden

This headline is a leading edge. There will be many similar ones the next few years. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Dale Dorsey isn’t happy.

After working 33 years, he’s facing a 55% cut to his pension benefits, a blow which he says will “cripple” his family and imperil the livelihood of his two children, one of whom is in the fourth grade and one of whom is just entering high school.

Dorsey attended a town hall meeting in Kansas City on Tuesday where retirees turned out for a discussion on “massive” pension cuts proposed by the Central States Pension Fund, which covers 400,000 participants, and which will almost certainly go broke within the next decade.

“A controversial 2014 law allowed the pension to propose [deep] cuts, many of them by half or more, as a way to perhaps save the fund,” The Kansas City Star wrote earlier this week adding that “two much smaller pensions also have sought similar relief under the law, and still more pensions are significantly underfunded.”

“What’s happening to us is a microcosm of what’s going to happen to the rest of the pensions in the United States,” said Jay Perry, a longtime Teamsters member.

Jay is probably correct.

Public sector pension funds are grossly underfunded in places like Chicago and Houston, while private sector funds are struggling to deal with rock bottom interest rates, which put pressure on expected returns and thus drive the present value of funds’ liabilities higher.

Illinois’ pension burden has brought the state to its knees financially speaking and in November, Springfield was forced to miss a $560 million payment to its retirement fund. In the private sector, GM said on Thursday that it will sell 20- and 30-year bonds in order to meet its pension obligations.

“At the end of last year GM’s U.S. hourly pension plan was underfunded by $10.4 billion,” The New York Times writes. “About $61 billion of the obligations were funded for the plan’s roughly 360,000 pensioners.” Maybe it’s time for tax payers to bail themselves out.

Speaking of GM, Kenneth Feinberg – the man who oversaw the distribution of cash compensation to victims who were involved in accidents tied to faulty ignition switches – is now tasked with deciding whether the Central States Pension Fund’s proposal to cut benefits passes legal muster. “Central States’ proposal would allow the retirees to work and still collect their reduced benefits. But some are no longer able to work, and the idea didn’t seem plausible to others,” the Star goes on to note.

“You know anybody hiring a 73-year-old mechanic?” Rod Heelan asked Feinberg. “I’m available.”

“I’ll have to go find a job. I don’t know. I’m 68,” Gary Meyer of Concordia, Mo said. “It would probably be a minimum-wage job.”

To be sure, retirees’ frustrations are justified. That said, the fund is simply running out of money. “We simply can’t stay afloat if we continue to pay out $3.46 in pension benefits for every $1 paid in from contributing employers,” a letter to retirees reads.

The fund is projected to go broke by 2026. Without the proposed cuts, no benefits at all will be paid from that point forward.

According to letters shared with The Star, cuts range from around 40% to 61%. “[The] average pension loss was more than $1,400 a month,” the paper says.

To continue reading: “I Guess It’s Food Stamps”: 400,000 Americans In Jeopardy As Giant Pension Fund Plans 50% Benefit Cuts

Pension Shocker: Plans Face $2 Trillion Shortfall, Moody’s Says, by Tyler Durden

State and local pensions are an accident waiting to happen. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Last month, in “Cities, States Shun Moody’s For Blowing The Whistle On Pension Liabilities,” we highlighted a rift between Moody’s and some local governments over the return assumptions for public pension plans.

To recap, when it comes to underfunded pension liabilities, one major concern is that in a world characterized by ZIRP and NIRP, it’s not entirely clear that public pension funds are using realistic investment return assumptions. The lower the return assumption, the larger the unfunded liability. After 2008, Moody’s stopped relying on the investment return assumptions of cities and states opting instead to use its own models. Unsurprisingly, this led the ratings agency to adopt a much less favorable view of state and local government finances and as WSJ reported, rather than admit that their return assumptions are indeed unrealistic, local governments have opted to drop Moody’s instead.

The debate underscores a larger problem in America. Almost half of the states in the union are facing budget deficits.

To continue reading: Pension Shocker

The Farce Goes On——-Greek Court Suspends Gravity, by Pater Tenebrarum

The title says it all, from Pater Tenebrarum at the squeezing blood from rocks department at davidstockmanscontracorner.com:

Take that, Einstein!

As is well known, we all labor under the irresistible force of gravity ever since Einstein heedlessly invented the stuff. Attempts to outlaw it have thus far failed to our knowledge, but maybe it’s just a matter of perseverance.

A Greek court has just decided on implementing a roughly equivalent ruling, by declaring the previous government’s pension cuts illegal and ordering the government to restore pensions to their height prior to the implementation of the last bailout agreement. AFP reports:

“Greece’s top administrative court on Wednesday ruled that pension cuts adopted in 2012 as part of the country’s tough bailout conditions were unconstitutional, and ordered the cash-strapped government to restore the payments to their previous levels.

The Council of State’s long-awaited ruling on private sector pensions comes as Greece’s anti-austerity government is locked in tense talks with international creditors over reforms in return for urgently-needed rescue funds, with pensions seen as one of the key sticking points.

The court’s decision, which is not retroactive, calls for the government to restore the pensions to the level they were at before a November 2012 law came into effect lowering main and supplementary pensions by five to 10 percent.

The Council of State has in recent years been asked to consider many of the painful austerity measures that caused widespread anger in Greece and helped bring the hard-left anti-austerity Syriza power to party in January.

The court last year found that wage cuts for police, the military and firefighters were also unconstitutional. But the previous government took several months to comply with the ruling and only partially restored the salary levels, citing budgetary constraints.

Wednesday’s pension ruling is expected to cost the state 1.2-1.5 billion euros ($1.3 billion to $1.7 billion) a year, according to Greek economic analysis site Macropolis.

We can understand that Greece’s pensioners are deeply unhappy. The fact of the matter is though that the Greek government is bankrupt. The court might as well have ordered birds to stop singing, or the sun not to shine. Things may have been different if a Greek default had been countenanced from the very beginning to liquidate unsound debt instead of piling even more debt atop it. However, even in that case, the Greek government would have had little choice but to embark on reforms, because it simply doesn’t have enough money to continue where Greece left off at the height of the last boom.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-farce-goes-on-greek-court-suspends-gravity/

To continue reading: The Farce Goes On

See also: “Doomed Dinosaurs,” SLL, 6/8/15