Tag Archives: Wheat

The Geopolitics of Wheat. Is There a Grain of Truth in Any of It?

Was Africa threatened with famine due to the Ukrainian wheat blockade or not? From Martin Jay at strategic-culture.org:

The panic about African countries being starved of wheat seems to have been unjust and perhaps even fake news.

There was much anticipation about getting wheat sent from the Black Sea to Africa to prevent famines. So why haven’t African governments sent ships there?

Just recently Recep Erdogan of Turkey succeeded in bringing both Russia and the West to the negotiating table over wheat. Since virtually the beginning of Russian invasion in February of this year, the ports which normally export wheat to most of the world, have been blocked. Notably, Odessa port was entirely buffered by mines rendering it impossible for ships to enter nor leave.

Remarkably, a deal was struck very quickly after a number of heavyweights in the Middle East and North Africa reached out to Putin, pointing out that if wheat cannot reach many of these countries, there would be real consequences; food insecurity in many of these countries can quickly flare into political insurrection, terror groups forming and of course heightening numbers of migrants heading for the EU.

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The So-Called ‘War of Attrition’ Is Stacked Up in Russia’s Favour. And Kissinger Knows It, by Martin Jay

The only idea dumber than a U.S.-sponsored war of attrition would be a U.S. nuclear strike. From Martin Jay at strategic-culture.org:

An impending wheat shortage may well drive MENA countries to revolt and direct a new level of anger and revolt towards Brussels from its own members.

Forget anti-tank weapons and bullets. An impending wheat shortage may well drive MENA countries to revolt and direct a new level of anger and revolt towards Brussels from its own members.

As the U.S. approaches critical midterm elections which might dampen Biden’s foreign policy endeavours, the EU too will soon be looking at its own strategy – in particular with regards to Ukraine – in the shorter term, due to a number of factors looking on the horizon which confused and ill-informed journalists aren’t tackling.

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Toxic Wheat, GMOs and the Precautionary Principle, by Raúl Ilargi Meijer

If you are one of the many people who have a wheat sensitivity, it may not be a wheat sensitivity but rather a sensitivity to Monsanto’s Roundup. From  Raúl Ilargi Meijer at theautomaticearth.com:

Recently, I posted a two-tear old article on facebook.com/TheAutomaticEarth that was shared so many times it seems to make sense to use it for an Automatic Earth article as well. The article asks how toxic the wheat we eat is – or Americans, more specifically-, and why that is.

But first I would like to touch on a closely connected issue, which is Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ‘war’ on GMOs. Taleb, of Black Swans fame, has been at it for a while, but he’s stepped up his efforts off late.

In 2014, with co-authors Rupert Read, Raphael Douady, Joseph Norman and Yaneer Bar-Yam, he published The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms), an attempt to look at GMOs through a ‘solidly scientific’ prism of probability and complex systems. From the abstract:

The precautionary principle (PP) states that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing severe harm to the public domain (affecting general health or the environment globally), the action should not be taken in the absence of scientific near-certainty about its safety. Under these conditions, the burden of proof about absence of harm falls on those proposing an action, not those opposing it. PP is intended to deal with uncertainty and risk in cases where the absence of evidence and the incompleteness of scientific knowledge carries profound implications and in the presence of risks of “black swans”, unforeseen and unforeseable events of extreme consequence.

[..] We believe that the PP should be evoked only in extreme situations: when the potential harm is systemic (rather than localized) and the consequences can involve total irreversible ruin, such as the extinction of human beings or all life on the planet. The aim of this paper is to place the concept of precaution within a formal statistical and risk-analysis structure, grounding it in probability theory and the properties of complex systems. Our aim is to allow decision makers to discern which circumstances require the use of the PP and in which cases evoking the PP is inappropriate.

This puts into perspective the claims made by Monsanto et al that since no harm has ever been proven to arise from the use of GMOs, they should therefore be considered safe. Which is the approach largely taken over by American politics, and increasingly also in Europe and other parts of the world. In their paper, Taleb et al say the approach does not meet proper scientific standards.

This is very close to my personal opinion, expressed in many articles in the past, that GMOs pose such risks on such a wide scale to the food supply of every human being on earth -as well as a much wider selection of organisms- that they should not be legalized before perhaps 100 years of tests have been done by large and independent teams of specialists.

Note that if you, as an individual farmer, as a community or even as a nation, want to ban GMOs but your neighbors do not, you will in the case of many crops not stand a chance of keeping your plants GMO free. For which you can subsequently be sued by the ‘owner’ of the genetically altered plants and seeds.

Also, I think it is irresponsibly dangerous to give a handful of companies (Monsanto, Bayer, DuPont, Syngenta), who all happen to be chemical giants dating back to the 20th century interbellum, and all with questionable pasts, a quasi-monopoly over the -future of- world’s food. Because that is where things will go unless proper principles are applied, both scientific and legal.

To continue reading: Toxic Wheat, GMOs and the Precautionary Principle