Tag Archives: Brazil

The Bolsonaro Effect, by Hardscrabble Farmer

You get tired of being the “mark” for other people’s scams. From Hardscrabble Farmer at theburningplatform.com:

Over the weekend my son and I decided to take a break and watch a couple of episodes of a show called The Carbonaro Effect. It features a young magician that pulls a Candid Camera style set of tricks on unsuspecting people using magic as it’s hook. If you haven’t seen him before it’s fairly entertaining in a fashion the first couple of times, but as we watched it became evident that what he was doing wasn’t very popular with the people he was fooling.

During the show there are numerous pop-ups that appear on the screen explaining how he came up with the trick, the way the crew were involved, how the staging was placed, etc. At the end of each trick he reveals to the unsuspecting mark that he has just tricked them and gives them a big hug letting them know it was all in good fun, like Allen Funt used to do with his high trust audiences in the 1960’s. After one of these tricks concluded there was a pop-up that said “most people will try to walk away after the trick and the crew has to re-direct them back into the shot.”

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Future of Western Democracy Being Played Out in Brazil, by Pepe Escobar

An important election in South America’s largest country looms. From Pepe Escobar at consortiumnews.com:

Nothing less than the future of politics across the West – and across the Global South – is being played out in Brazil.

Stripped to its essence, the Brazilian presidential elections represent a direct clash between democracy and an early 21st Century, neofascism, indeed between civilization and barbarism.

Geopolitical and global economic reverberations will be immense. The Brazilian dilemma illuminates all the contradictions surrounding the Right populist offensive across the West, juxtaposed to the inexorable collapse of the Left. The stakes could not be higher.

Jair Bolsonaro, an outright supporter of Brazilian military dictatorships of last century, who has been normalized as the “extreme-right candidate,” won the first round of the presidential elections on Sunday with more than 49 million votes. That was 46 percent of the total, just shy of a majority needed for an outright win. This in itself is a jaw-dropping development.

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“I’m Totally Freaked Out”: Brazil’s Elite Fleeing Bloodshed And Chaos, by Tyler Durden

Many well to do Brazilians are fleeing their nation’s hellish descent. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Amid the economic, political, and social collapse, Brazil has been described by many as being in the midst of a “zombie apocalypse” as years of corruption and violence spectacularly implodes all at once.

Horrified by the out of control violence and pessimistic about the nation’s political and economic outlook, thousands of wealthy Brazilians are now fleeing the country.

Thiago Lacerda, a high-profile actor, is one of the thousands of celebrities, bankers, lawyers and affluent Brazilians considering emigration before the next round of turmoil.

“I’m totally freaked out by what’s been happening, especially here in Rio [Rio de Janeiro],” Mr. Lacerda told The Wall Street Journal.

The 40-year-old actor said he has considered moving his family to Europe for the safety of his three children. “In several years, they’re going to want to go out, to start dating, without worrying about getting shot.”

Naercio Menezes Filho, director of the center for public policy at Insper, a São Paulo business school, commented on the situation and pointed out — the elite fleeing the country is the newest trend amid the threat of gang violence and economic instability.

According to a study published in June by Brazilian polling agency Datafolh, about 52 percent of the wealthiest Brazilians — those with a monthly income of more than $2,500 — want to emigrate, while 56 percent of college graduates have plans on leaving the country.

“The hope that Brazilians once had in their country has gone out the window, and many people are now reaching the conclusion that things are unlikely to change in the next few years,” said Mr. Menezes Filho.

Government figures show the number of Brazilians filing emigration notices with the federal tax office reached 21,700 in 2017, that is nearly three times the number in 2011, when officials started recording the data. WSJ notes that many are moving to the Portuguese Riviera and to US cities such as Orlando and Miami.

To continue reading: “I’m Totally Freaked Out”: Brazil’s Elite Fleeing Bloodshed And Chaos

Brazil, Scared and Leaderless, Looks to the Military, by Brian Winter

South America’s largest country is falling apart. From Brian Winter at americasquarterly.org:

The once unthinkable is now becoming normal, writes AQ’s editor-in-chief.
brazil
Soldiers deployed to protect fuel transport for essential services during a truckers’ strike
Carl DE SOUZA / AFP

SÃO PAULO – I arrived here on Sunday in the middle of the zombie apocalypse. Or so it seemed. A nationwide truckers’ strike was in its seventh day and 99 percent of São Paulo’s service stations had run out of gasoline. The roads of South America’s biggest city were deserted of cars and people, and the skies were a murky gray. The normally hellish drive from the airport, which often lasts two hours or more, took a disconcerting 23 minutes.

Up on Avenida Paulista, the city’s closest thing to a public square, things seemed more normal – at first. Huge crowds milled about, vendors were grilling beef and sausage, and girls in hot pink roller skates clomped by. A quadruple amputee was belting out the falsetto ending of Pearl Jam’s “Black” to an enthralled crowd. The sun was out now, and families sat at wooden tables with sweaty buckets of beer, laughing. Of course, I mused, Brazilians are going to make a party out of a bad situation. I bought a can of Skol and decided to join the fun.

Then I saw it. A huge banner, spanning the entire avenue, carried by a group of protesters:

“SUPPORT FOR THE TRUCK DRIVERS. MILITARY INTERVENTION! ARMED FORCES, URGENT!”

And that was the start of a week where I saw and heard things I never believed I would in Brazil.

The Brazil of mid-2018 is a frightened, leaderless, shockingly pessimistic country. It is a country where four years of scandal, violence and economic destruction have obliterated faith in not just President Michel Temer, not just the political class, but in democracy itself. It is a country where there will be elections in October, but most voters profess little faith in any of the candidates. Given that vacuum, many Brazilians – perhaps 40 percent of them, according to a new private poll circulating among worried politicians – believe the military should somehow act to restore order. Amid this week’s strike, the clamor became so loud that both Temer and a senior military official had to publicly deny the possibility of an imminent coup.

To continue reading: Brazil, Scared and Leaderless, Looks to the Military

Who’s Most Afraid of a Latin American Debt Crisis (Apart from Latin America)? by Don Quijones

The contagion metaphor often used in debt crises doesn’t really fit. It’s not like an overindebted entity “infects” healthy entities and the disease then spreads. The better analogy is a line of dominoes, and as one domino falls it knocks over a line of other dominoes, and all the dominoes represent overindebted entities. From Don Quijones at wolfstreet.com:

It’s not just countries that are at risk of contagion.

Economic history appears to be rhyming once again in Latin America. Perennial credit-basket-case Argentina was one of the first countries to suffer a major currency crisis this century. Now, its government has asked the IMF for a brand-new bailout. But if this classic last-gasp fix was meant to calm the markets, it isn’t working.

Previous Latin American debt crises have taught us two things:

  1. The direct impact on the general populace, already suffering from sky-high poverty rates, is devastating;
  2. Once the first domino falls, contagion can spread like wildfire.

The debt crisis of the early 1980s, which spread to virtually all corners of the region, famously paved the way to Latin America’s “lost decade.” Mexico’s Tequila Crisis of 1994-5 at one point became so serious that it almost brought down some of Wall Street’s biggest banks.

At the moment, as long as the US dollar and US yields continue to rise, emerging market jitters can be expected to grow. As British financial correspondent Neal Kimberley notes, markets often behave like predators, running down what they perceive as the weakest prey first — a role being filled, with usual aplomb, by Argentina.

Emerging market weakness is by now a generalized trend. The jitters could soon spread to Latin America’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, which between them account for close to 60% of Latin America’s GDP. Both of the countries face general elections in the next two months. In Brazil the most popular presidential candidate, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is running his campaign from behind bars, where he serves a prison sentence after having been convicted of corruption. In Mexico, the front runner, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has the country’s business elite so spooked that it has launched a “Project Fear” against his candidacy.

Brazilian Army Ordered To “Restore Order” In Rio De Janeiro, by Tyler Durden

Things have been dicey in Brazil for quite some time, and they may be getting dicier. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

With public spending on police and social services collapsing amid Brazil’s worsening economic crisis, violent crime has crept back up in Rio de Janeiro, a city widely recognized for its favelas – urban hillside slums teeming with violence, drugs and prostitution, according to Bloomberg.

And ahead of an October election where President Michel Temer will try to win his first full term in office, the president is trying to send in the army to seize control of the city’s streets and restore order to an increasingly lawless town.

President Michel Temer issued a decree on Friday putting an Army general in charge of Rio’s security forces, including the state’s civilian police. The intervention, which requires congressional approval, will last until the end of the year, according to the decree.

“Our prisons will no longer be offices for thieves, our public squares party halls for organized crime,” Temer said after signing the decree.

“I know it’s an extreme measure but many times Brazil requires extreme measures to put things in order.”

But as is often the case with Brazilian politics, Temer has a plausible ulterior motive: By sending in the army, he might create enough of a distraction to avoid voting on an unpopular pension bill because Brazilian law conveniently prohibits making constitutional changes during times of military crisis.

Temer told Reuters that the intervention wouldn’t halt negotiations over pension reform or stop a vote on the plan, which is deeply unpopular with the country’s retirees, who stand to see their benefits cut.

Meanwhile, crime in the city has erased nearly a decade of progress, climbing back to its highest level since 2009. Temer’s decision is the first time the military has intervened in public affairs since the former military dictatorship ended in the mid-1980s and the country returned to democracy.

To continue reading: Brazilian Army Ordered To “Restore Order” In Rio De Janeiro

Will Brazil Be the Next Hotspot for Independence Movements? by Michael Krieger

Three wealthy southern Brazilian states are making noises about secession. From Michael Krieger at libertyblitzkrieg.com:

If you’ve read my work over the past several weeks, you’ve probably noticed an increased fascination with secession/independence movements around the world. I think we’re at the very early stages of this developing trend, which will see nation-states across the world fracture for a variety of reasons. The historical significance of the political changes we’re about to live through cannot be overstated. As I wrote in last month’s piece, The Future Will Be Decentralized:

To conclude, I recognize that I’m making a huge call here. I think the way human beings organize their affairs will experience the most significant paradigm level shift we’ve seen in the Western world since the end of the European feudal system hundreds of years ago. That’s how significant I think this shift will be. There are two key things that need to happen for this to occur. The first is technological innovation, and that’s already happening. The second is increased human consciousness. As Thoreau noted, in order for us to have greater self-determination we need to be ready for it. Are we ready? I think we’re getting there.

While extremely significant, the Catalan independence movement is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to a global drive toward political decentralization. For example, just today I came across another potential secessionist hotspot in an unexpected place, Brazil.

Bloomberg reports:

Inspired by the separatist vote in Catalonia, secessionists in three wealthy southern Brazilian states are redoubling their efforts to break away from the crisis-battered nation.

Residents of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana states are being called to vote in an informal plebiscite on Oct. 7 on whether they want independence. Organizers are also urging residents of the three states to sign a legislative proposal for each of their regional assemblies that would call for a formal, binding referendum. The non-profit group “The South is My Country”aims to mobilize a million voters in 900 out of the region’s 1,191 cities.

To continue reading: Will Brazil Be the Next Hotspot for Independence Movements?

Brazil’s Easy-Money Problem, by Lucas Vaz

From Lucas Vaz, cobdencentre.org:

Brazil is undergoing what is considered its worst economic crisis in seventy years, and there is usually no agreement when it comes to the causes of this situation. President Rousseff and the Labor Party say that it was the corollary of the “International Crisis,” a ghost of the 2008 depression created in their minds. The reality, however, is different. Since ex-president Lula Da Silva of the Labor Party entered office in 2003, the government has clung to the typical Keynesian project of growth-by-government-spending. Interest rates were lowered constantly, the amount of loans grew to an unprecedented level, savings per capita dropped, and government spending continued to grow.

For the advocates of government intervention, the country’s economy was heaven on earth. It should be of no surprise that Paul Krugman, the defender of America’s Quantitative Easing, said that Brazil was not a vulnerable country. However, those policies so strongly defended by some economists and by bureaucrats led the country toward the terrible situation in which it is now.

From the Brazilian government’s point of view, it could hardly get any worse: the country is facing an economic depression that is likely to last at least two more years, the country’s rating was downgraded to junk by Standard & Poor’s, and a corruption scandal may lead to the impeachment of the country’s president, Dilma Rousseff. We must recognize, however, that even though this was the result of the government’s action, it simply put in practice the most prevalent ideologies of the country, which is a mixture of Marxism in politics and in the universities with Keynesianism in economics. This national ideology praises, in general, a complete dependence of the people on the government. The fact that “Brazil’s tax burden already amounts to 36 per cent of GDP” is held with pride by professors and economists throughout the country, who spread the word that public policies will create jobs and contribute to people’s welfare.

Brazil and the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

In order to grasp what is happening to Brazil, and to understand why some economists have long ago predicted the current disaster, it is crucial to understand Austrian business cycle theory, since it yields a concrete critique of government’s involvement with currency and credit expansion — two factors that the Brazilian government used as tools for economic growth — and its misuse is what generated the crisis.

As Mises pointed out, “the cyclical fluctuations of business are not an occurrence originating in the sphere of the unhampered market, but a product of government interference with business.”

Indeed, those “boom-bust” cycles, as the one that happened in Brazil, are generated by monetary interventionin the market in the form of bank credit expansion. Thus, they are an outcome of central planning and government intervention, the very opposite of a free market.

To continue reading: Brazil’s Easy-Money Problem

 

Brazil Heads for Worst Recession Since 1901, by David Biller

The financial markets appear to be grasping that the world economy is heading down the tubes. At the front of the line: Brazil. From David Biller at bloomberg.com:

Brazil’s economy will contract more than previously forecast and is heading for the deepest recession since at least 1901 as economic activity and confidence sink amid a political crisis, a survey of analysts showed.

Latin America’s largest economy will shrink 2.95 percent this year, according to the weekly central bank poll of about 100 economists, versus a prior estimate of a 2.81 percent contraction. Analysts lowered their 2016 growth forecast for 13 straight weeks and estimate the economy contracted 3.71 percent last year.

Brazil’s policy makers are struggling to control the fastest inflation in 12 years without further hamstringing a weak economy. Finance Minister Nelson Barbosa, who took the job in December, has faced renewed pressure to moderate austerity proposals aimed at bolstering public accounts and avoiding further credit downgrades. Impeachment proceedings and an expanding corruption scandal have also been hindering approval of economic policies in Congress.

To continue reading: Brazil Heads for Worst Recession Since 1901

Brazil Releases Shocking GDP “Obituary”: “It’s Mutated Into An Outright Depression,” Goldman Exclaims, by Tyler Durden

Is Brazil the condor in the coal mine? SLL started talking global depression a year ago; now it’s arrived in Brazil. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

To be sure, we haven’t exactly been shy about characterizing Brazil’s economic malaise as more akin to a depression than a recession. Here are a few representative headlines:

Depression Tracker: Brazil Braces For Big Week Of Bad Data
Depression Tracker: Unemployment Soars In Latin America’s Most Important Economy
Brazil’s Economy Slides Into Depression, And Now Olympians Will Be Swimming In Feces [refer to original article to access links]

The problem, you’re reminded, is that Brazil is in the midst of a dramatic economic downturn that’s left the country to suffer through the worst inflation-growth outcome (i.e. stagflation) in more than a decade. Unemployment and inflation are soaring (annual headline IPCA inflation at 10.28%, unemployment at 7.9% in August, up from just 4.7% a year earlier) while output is plunging (IBC-Br monthly real GDP indicator down 6.1% Y/Y in September) and the market is losing confidence in the government’s ability to end a political stalemate on the way to shoring up the fiscal books and hitting primary surplus targets. Last week’s arrest of prominent lawmaker Delcidio Amaral in connection with the ongoing Carwash investigation didn’t help.

Thanks to the above mentioned IBC-Br monthly indicator (which showed an economy in “free fall” to quote Barclays) we already knew Q3 was going to be bad on the GDP front. But this is Brazil we’re talking about, which means that as bad as consensus is, there’s always the distinct possibility that the actual numbers will be far worse than expected and that’s exactly what happened on Tuesday.

Real GDP fell 1.7% Q/Q and 4.5% Y/Y while Q2’s already abysmal -1.9% contraction was revised down to -2.1%.

All of those prints missed expectations and the headline number was worse than all but three estimates from the 44 economists Bloomberg surveyed.

To continue reading: Brazil’s ‘Depression’