Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Major Economic Contraction Coming In 2023 – Followed By Even More Inflation, by Brandon Smith

Posted on December 9, 2022 | Leave a comment

We are looking at a very hard landing in 2023. From Brandon Smith at alt-market.us:

 

This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group

The signs are already present and obvious, but the overall economic picture probably won’t be acknowledged in the mainstream until the situation becomes much worse (as if it’s not bad enough). It’s a problem that arises at the onset of every historic financial crisis – Mainstream economists and commentators lie to the public about the chances of recovery, constantly giving false reassurances and lulling people back to sleep. Even now with price inflation pummeling the average consumer they tell us that there is nothing to worry about. The Federal Reserve’s “soft landing” is on the way.

I remember in 2007 right before the epic derivatives collapse when media pundits were applauding the US housing market and predicting even greater highs in sales and in valuations. I had only been writing economic analysis for about a year, but I remember thinking that the overt display of optimism felt like compensation for something. It seemed as if they were trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the public in the hopes that if people just believed hard enough that all was well then the fantasy could be manifested into reality. Unfortunately, that’s not how economics works.

Supply and demand, debt and deficit, money velocity and inflation; these things cannot be ignored. If the system is out of balance, collapse will set its ugly foot down somewhere and there’s nothing anyone including central banks can do about it. In fact, there are times when they deliberately ENGINEER collapse.

This is the situation we are currently in today as 2022 comes to a close. The Fed is in the midst of a rather aggressive rate hike program in a “fight” against the stagflationary crisis that they created through years of fiat stimulus measures. The problem is that the higher interest rates are not bringing prices down, nor are they really slowing stock market speculation. Easy money has been too entrenched for far too long, which means a hard landing is the most likely scenario.

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Operation Break Stuff, by MN Gordon

Posted on October 21, 2022 | Leave a comment

Is the Federal Reserve going to keep raising interest rates until something—the bond or stock market, bank runs, currency crises—breaks? From MN Gordon at economicprism.com:

Stagflation, sinking labor productivity, severe levels of public and private debt, a splintered real estate market…  You name it.  The economy’s crashing and burning like an old Cutlass Supreme.

There’s nothing the central planners can do to fix it.  No plans or schemes will get the tired jalopy to fire on all cylinders.  A blown head gasket is replaced and the very next day the spark plugs are fried.  Replace those and a piston ring blows.

At some point, it’s beyond salvage.  The only sensible choice left is to scrap the old buggy at the junk yard.

Similarly, scrapping the central planners that are responsible for this economic mess is the right thing to do.  They’ve created a very disagreeable situation.  One that will take several generations – or more – to reconcile.

In this vein, the time has come to purge the rot.  To reckon the mistakes of the past.  To burn off the many distortions that have piled up like dead forest wood.  We’ll have more on this in just a moment.  But first some context is in order.

The past 40 years have been an era of heavy handed central economic planning by way of interventionist monetary policies.  The past 14 years, ever since Ben Shalom Bernanke let the QE genie out of the bottle, has taken this intervention to the extreme.

From the death of Lehman, and through the Great Recession, repo madness, and the coronavirus panic, the Federal Reserve’s created upwards of $8 trillion in credit out of thin air.  The economy and financial markets have come to depend on it.

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Markets Are Expecting The Federal Reserve To Save Them – It’s Not Going To Happen, by Brandon Smith

Posted on October 9, 2022 | Leave a comment

It’s said that bull markets climb a wall of worry. Robert Prechter has observed that bear markets descend a slope of hope. Hopes for the Federal Reserve to save the current shaky market are liable to be misplaced. From Brandon Smith at alt-market.com:

This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group

I have said it many times in the past but I’ll say it here again: Stock markets are a trailing indicator of economic health, not a leading indicator. Rising stock prices are not a signal of future economic stability and when stocks fall it’s usually after years of declines in other sectors of the financial system. Collapsing stocks are not the “cause” of an economic crisis, they are just a delayed symptom of a crisis that was always there.

Anyone who started investing after the crash of 2008 probably has zero concept of how markets are supposed to behave and what they represent to the rest of the economy. They have never seen stocks move freely without central bank interference and they have only witnessed brief glimpses of true price discovery.

With each new leg down in markets one can now predict every couple of months or so with relative certainty that investor sentiment will turn to assumptions that the Federal Reserve is going to leap in with new stimulus measures. This is not supposed to be normal, but they can’t really help it, they were trained over the past 14 years to expect QE like clockwork whenever markets took a dip of 10% or more. The problem is that conditions have changed dramatically in terms of credit conditions and price environment and it was all those trillions of QE dollars that ultimately created this mess.

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The Disease Or Cure? Take Your Pick! by Dennis Miller

Posted on September 29, 2022 | Leave a comment

Most of the economic problems the U.S. faces can be traced back to the Federal Reserve. From Dennis Miller at theburningplatform.com:

Since I began my cancer treatment in 2019, my outside travel has been curtailed. Doctors, restaurants, and an occasional trip to visit family have been about it.

The good news is now I have more energy and feel like getting out and doing fun stuff. I recently made a trip to our local Factory Outlet Mall. I used to enjoy window shopping and eating in the food court. I was shocked, and unhappy with what I found.

The mall used to be full of cool stores, bustling with traffic. The photo is disheartening. I’d guess 40% of the stores are vacant. Stores closing, people losing jobs, landlords hurting, mortgage and bonds defaults are happening for the wrong reasons. It’s upsetting, but I realize there is not a damn thing we can do about it. We are on our own….

The Disease

Former congressman Ron Paul believes the cause of our economic problems is central banking:

“It is amazing that more individuals do not question the idea that inflation, recessions, unemployment, and booms and busts are necessary features of a sound monetary system. Even many otherwise staunch defenders of free markets maintain a child-like faith in central banking. …. These conservatives do not understand that the problem is the existence of a central bank with the power to manipulate the currency.”

Irresponsible politicians, coupled with central banking, is a cauldron for the economic problems we face today.

Academics believe in Keynesian economics. Keynes believed government spending should help thwart a bad economy and get it turned around. He also felt during good times, government revenue should exceed expenses and the surplus should be used to pay down debt.

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Debt… And Why The Fed Is Trapped, by Lance Roberts

Posted on September 21, 2022 | Leave a comment

The Fed is walking a tightrope between hyperinflation and a Greater Depression. From Lance Roberts at The Epoch Times via zerohedge.com:

The massive debt levels provide the single most significant risk and challenge to the Federal Reserve. It is also why the Fed is desperate to return inflation to low levels, even if it means weaker economic growth. Such was a point previously made by Jerome Powell:

“We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing. It is very important that inflation expectations remain anchored. What we hope to achieve is a period of growth below trend.”

That last sentence is the most important.

There are some important financial implications to below-trend economic growth. As we discussed in “The Coming Reversion to the Mean of Economic Growth“:

“After the financial crisis [of 2008–09], the media buzzword became the ‘new normal’ for what the post-crisis economy would be like. It was a period of slower economic growth, weaker wages, and a decade of monetary interventions to keep the economy from slipping back into a recession.

“Post the ‘COVID crisis,’ we will begin to discuss the ‘new new normal’ of continued stagnant wage growth, a weaker economy, and an ever-widening wealth gap. Social unrest is a direct byproduct of this ‘new new normal,’ as injustices between the rich and poor become increasingly evident.

“If we are correct in assuming that PCE [Personal Consumption Expenditures price index] will revert to the mean as stimulus fades from the economy, then the ‘new new normal’ of economic growth will be a new lower trend that fails to create widespread prosperity.”

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Central Planners of the World, Unite! By MN Gordon

Posted on September 16, 2022 | Leave a comment

Central banking is Soviet style central planning, and it has worked about as well as Soviet central planning did. From MN Gordon at economicprism.com:

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell wants a swift decline in the rate of consumer price inflation.  He isn’t getting what he wants.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), increased at an “official” annualized rate of 8.3 percent in August.

This exceeded Wall Street’s consensus expectations of 8.1 percent.  What’s more, it crushed investor hopes a ‘Powell pivot’ would come sooner rather than later.  On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crashed 1,276 points on the news.

Powell, a central planner, wants consumer price inflation to be about 2 percent.  Instead, he’s got something that’s over 400 percent higher.  What’s going on?

If you want to understand what’s up with raging consumer price inflation and Fed monetary policy, you must understand this.  Right now, in the United States as in most of the world, we have a scam currency that’s controlled by central planners.  Specifically, we have what Karl Marx envisioned in Plank No. 5 of his Communist Manifesto:

“No. 5.  Centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly.”

The Federal Reserve System, created by the Federal Reserve Act of Congress in 1913, is indeed a privately owned ‘national bank.’  It also holds a monopoly on legal counterfeiting in the United States.

Without the Fed’s policies of mass credit creation, it would have been impossible for the U.S. government to run up a $30.8 trillion national debt.  Without the Fed’s printing press money, the U.S. government never could have run annual trillion-dollar budget deficits for a better part of the last decade and a half.  Without the Fed’s fake money there would not be over 100 million people dependent upon the U.S. government for their daily bread.

This is the miracle of centralized credit.

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It’s A Fact That Needs Repeating: The Federal Reserve Is A Suicide Bomber, by Brandon Smith

Posted on September 8, 2022 | Leave a comment

The Federal Reserve answers to globalist masters and doesn’t mind blowing up the U.S. financial system and economy. From Brandon Smith at alt-market.us:

By Brandon Smith

For many years now I have been examining the policies and behaviors of the Federal Reserve because they are in fact the most powerful institution in the US, with far more influence over the fate of America than any single president or branch of government. They have the power to end the economic life of our country in a matter of moments. They hold their finger on the button of multiple financial nuclear bombs, and to this day there are people that still pretend as if they are a mere moderating presence subservient to the White House or Congress.

This is a fallacy proven by history and the admissions from central bankers own mouths. The Fed answers to no one in our government. They answer to a different set of masters, and the blame for the consequences of their policies falls to them and their cohorts.

Last year I published an article titled ‘The Fed’s Catch-22 Taper Is A Weapon, Not A Policy Error.’ In that article I predicted that the Fed would embark on a hiking spree on interest rates in response to inflationary/stagflationary events. I noted that:

“We are now at that stage again where price inflation tied to money printing is clashing with the stock market’s complete reliance on stimulus to stay afloat. There are some that continue to claim the Fed will never sacrifice the markets by tapering. I say the Fed does not actually care, it is only waiting for the right time to pull the plug on the US economy.”

At the time I received a lot of resistance to the idea. The usual argument was: “The fed will never raise rates and put stock markets at risk. Why would they destroy the golden goose?”

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The Federal Reserve Wants You Fired, by Ron Paul

Posted on September 5, 2022 | Leave a comment

Business cycle swings became much more pronounced after the establishment of the Federal Reserve. From Ron Paul at ronpaulinstitute.org:

The Federal Reserve was no doubt troubled by July’s decline in the US unemployment rate to 4.5 percent and increase in job openings to 11.2 million. This is because the Fed’s strategy for reducing the historic price inflation now plaguing the economy — caused by the Fed’s unprecedented low or zero interest rate policies — is to increase unemployment in order to decrease consumer spending. In his speech to the annual monetary policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to increasing unemployment, or, as he puts it, “softening the labor markets.”

Powell is correct that reducing price inflation is urgent. He is also correct that doing so will increase unemployment and slow economic growth. The Fed’s efforts to bring down inflation by increasing interest rates will also make it harder for average Americans to obtain home mortgages, purchase a car, or even pay their utility bills. Those hardest hit by the Fed’s “softening of labor markets” are also the primary victims of the Fed-created price inflation. This demonstrates the insanity and cruelty of the fiat money system, which enriches the elites while improvising [impoverishing] the masses.

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Ron Paul Reveals Exactly How Much the Federal Reserve Has Already Robbed You, by Ron Paul

Posted on August 27, 2022 | Leave a comment

Central banking and fiat banking rob people blind. From Ron Paul at birchgold.com:

Ron Paul Reveals Exactly How Much the Federal Reserve Has Already Robbed You

Photo CC BY-SA 2.0 by Gage Skidmore
Even after decades educating Americans on economics and liberty, I’m still amazed by the number of people who have no idea what the Federal Reserve is or what they do.

Sometimes, if put on the spot, folks will hazard a guess.

“They’re a bank, right?” Sort of, but not really.

“They’re the ones who make the stock market go up.” While that’s true, it’s not actually their job to pull the strings on Wall Street.

“They print money, don’t they?” True! Technically, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, a subsidiary of the Department of the Treasury, physically produces greenbacks (or Federal reserve notes, or dollars).

What the Federal Reserve does is decide the total supply of dollars, and then create or destroy (but usually create) however many dollars they think the world needs.

Thus, as I explained in my article Forget about the gold standard, let’s talk about the copper standard, the Federal Reserve is in charge of either creating or destroying inflation. Mostly creating!

Today, I’m going to show you exactly how the Federal Reserve has abused their inflationary powers to steal from you. If you’re not absolutely furious by the time you’re done reading this article, well, call the Pope – you must be a saint!

If, like me, you’re not a saint, get ready to feel your blood boil…

Inflation robs responsible savers, rewards debtors

When my father was getting ready to retire back in the 60s, his nest egg was invested very conservatively in CDs at the bank. That made sense for him, because at the time, banks paid 2-3% over the rate of inflation. He didn’t have to worry about the value of his money declining faster than it grew.

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The Engineered Stagflationary Collapse Has Arrived – Here’s What Happens Next, by Brandon Smith

Posted on June 18, 2022 | Leave a comment

The Fed intends to blow things up to pave the way for a globalist monetary system. From Brandon Smith at alt-market.com:

In my 16 years as an alternative economist and political writer I have spent around half that time warning that the ultimate outcome of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus model would be a stagflationary collapse. Not a deflationary collapse, or an inflationary collapse, but a stagflationary collapse. The reasons for this were very specific – Mass debt creation was being countered with MORE debt creation while many central banks have been simultaneously devaluing their currencies through QE measures. On top of that, the US is in the unique position of relying on the world reserve status of the dollar and that status is diminishing.

It was only a matter of time before the to forces of deflation and inflation met in the middle to create stagflation. In my article ‘Infrastructure Bills Do Not Lead To Recovery, Only Increased Federal Control’, published in April of 2021, I stated that:

“Production of fiat money is not the same as real production within the economy… Trillions of dollars in public works programs might create more jobs, but it will also inflate prices as the dollar goes into decline. So, unless wages are adjusted constantly according to price increases, people will have jobs, but still won’t be able to afford a comfortable standard of living. This leads to stagflation, in which prices continue to rise while wages and consumption stagnate.

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