How long before Hungary leaves the EU and NATO? Will any other nation follow? From Chris MacIntosh at internationalman.com:
Several shifts in alliances and bifurcations are happening right now which are going under the radar.
Hungary out of the EU?
We’ve long said that Hungary was going to leave the EU. It is just a question of time.
The daily news announced that “hundreds of high-ranking military officers sacked in Hungary”. From the article:
Multiple Hungarian media outlets reported that Hungary’s defense minister sacked hundreds of high-ranking military officers. The people concerned have two months to leave and will get 70 percent of their current salaries as a pension-like allowance even if they continue to work. The minister says the move served the rejuvenation and modernisation of the army. The opposition believes the government fired pro-NATO officers.
To be clear, I don’t know if this is true. But as with most things, you piece together multiple bits of information and a picture forms providing probabilities. It is with these probabilities that we begin to price outcomes and assets accordingly. Where most probable outcomes coincide with cheap or expensive asset classes is where we find asymmetry.
So what we do know is that Hungary has been against the Ukraine war from the get go.